2013 Preseason Predictions Evaluated

C Alex Avila:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112
2013 Actual	330	0.227	0.317	0.376	11	47	0	44	112

Alex Avila started off very cold, hitting .177/.279/.293 in the first half.  But then got really hot, hitting .303/.376/.500 in the second half.  I still think injuries caused most of his problems in the beginning of the year and if he remains healthy next year, it could mean a breakout year.  

1B Prince Fielder

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	562	0.301	0.413	0.543	34	100	1	98	88
2013 Actual	624	0.279	0.362	0.457	25	106	1	75	117

Prince Fielder failed to hit 30 HR since his first full season in 2006.  Fielder's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all down from a year ago, and there's little indication that he will bounce back next year.  His decline started earlier than I anticipated. 

2B Omar Infante

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66
2013 Actual	453	0.318	0.345	0.450	10	51	5	20	44

Omar Infante had his best season to date, with a career high 117 wRC+ and 113 OPS+ over a full season.  At 31 years old, it's hard to imagine him duplicating this season, but it's also hard to imagine the Tigers not giving him a qualifying offer with the lack of 2B depth in Free Agency.  I'm glad I was wrong about him, although it wouldn't surprise me if he hit closer to my prediction in 2014.  

SS Jhonny Peralta

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.241	0.305	0.380	13	66	1	48	105
2013 Actual	409	0.303	0.358	0.457	11	55	3	35	98

The Biogenesis incident aside, Jhonny Peralta had a nice season in 2013 that more resembled his 2011 season than the 2012 season I predicted.  Although that came with a .374 BABIP, so his season could be described as "fluky."  

3B Miguel Cabrera

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	612	0.333	0.397	0.601	39	122	3	65	99
2013 Actual	555	0.348	0.442	0.636	44	137	3	90	94

The biggest difference between my prediction and what Miguel Cabrera did was the 13.8% walk rate, up from 9.5% from 2012.  He was able to get it back to previous levels as in 2010 it was 13.7% and in 2011 it was 15.7%.  Unfortunately, his injury caused him to only hit .278/.395/.333 in the last month of the season with only 1 HR and he miss several games in the 2nd half of the season.  While his 187 OPS+ and 192 wRC+ were the best mark of his career, it's does make me wonder how much better they'd be if he was able to hit for better than a .055 ISO the last month of the season.

LF Andy Dirks

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	410	0.276	0.324	0.422	11	48	5	27	70
2013 Actual	438	0.256	0.323	0.363	9	37	7	42	84

After hitting .322/.370/.487 in a half a year worth of games in 2012, I think several people were hopeful for a great breakout season from Andy Dirks that just didn't happen.  Even my conservative prediction wasn't conservative enough, expect for the walk rate, which exceeded my expectation.  

CF Austin Jackson

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154
2013 Actual	552	0.272	0.337	0.417	12	49	8	52	129

A truly disappointed season from Austin Jackson that ended up with him batting 8th during the last few games of the ALCS, which surprisingly made him start hitting again.  His .333 BABIP seemed pedestrian compared to the .396 mark he put up in his rookie season and the .371 mark he put up in 2012.  But the biggest surprise might be the stolen bases, which have gone down every year since stealing 27 in his rookie year.  I would go out on a limb and say he'll never reach 20 SB again, but given his age and a different managerial strategy next year, he could get close to 30 again.  Or he might only get 5 next year.  He's just that streaky of a player.  

RF Torii Hunter

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113

Torii Hunter found his power stroke again, at least back to his 2011 level.  After having a .167 ISO in 2011, it plummeted to .139 in 2012, but then shot right back up to .161 in 2013.  Hunter is a vastly different player than he was when he was younger.  While he never hit .300 during his first 13 full years of playing, he has now had back-to-back seasons of hitting over .300.  But that has come at the expense of a lower walk rate, which has reached rock bottom at only 4% in 2013.  It was at 6.5% in 2012 and as high as the mid-9% range in 2009-2011.    

DH Victor Martinez

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62

Finally a close prediction!  Like Avila, Victor Martinez started off slow, hitting .258/.314/.380 in the first half, but then heated right up, hitting .361/.413/.500 in the 2nd half.  After having the whole 2012 season off due to an injury, it's not that surprising that it took him awhile to get back in the groove.  When it was all said and done, his numbers were very similar to what I expected, except maybe a bit more playing time.

SP Justin Verlander

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75

After having two consecutive seasons of sub-3.00 ERA in 2011 and 2012, Justin Verlander reverted back to a mid-3.00 ERA in 2013 that he had in most of his previous seasons (except for his disappointed 2008 season).  The biggest surprise might have been his durability.  After averaging 7.38 IP/start in 2011 and 7.22 IP/start in 2012, Verlander only averaged 6.42 IP/start in 2013.  It is possible that he was holding back during the regular season so that he would be stronger in the post-season, in which he had a 0.39 ERA and averaged 7.67 innings in 3 post-season starts. 

SP Max Scherzer

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	196 1/3	17-7	3.39	1.228	206	56
2013 Actual	214 1/3	21-3	2.90	0.970	240	56

I anticipated a breakout year for Max Scherzer, but he took it one step further with a Cy Young worthy season.  It's unfortunate that he may become too expensive to keep.  

SP Anibal Sanchez

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54

My biggest fail.  I predicted a lack-luster year for Anibal Sanchez and all he does is win the ERA title.  How does a guy have a higher K/9 in the DH, American League (9.1) than in the DH-less, National League (7.7)?  I don't think Jeff Jones gets enough credit.  

SP Doug Fister

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	208	14-8	3.20	1.125	173	46
2013 Actual	208 2/3	14-9	3.67	1.308	159	44

Thank God for Doug Fister's consistency; at least I got one of the pitchers mostly right.  The big difference being 0.47 in ERA and 14 strikeouts.

SP Rick Porcello

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42

Rick Porcello made great strides in his development this year as I mention here.  The biggest improvement being his strikeout rate, which reached over 7 K/9 for the first time this year.

The Game Winning RBI

If you were a fan of baseball during the 1980s, you might remember a statistic that is no longer kept, the game winning RBI, or GW RBI.  GW RBI was an official MLB stat from 1980-1988 that recorded the number of RBI a player had that put his team ahead for good.  For example, say the game is tied 2-2 and a batter received an RBI that made it 3-2.  Then his team scored 2 more runs to make it 5-2 and the final score was 5-4.  The batter that drove in the 3rd run gets credit for the GW RBI even though his team needed all 5 runs to win.  With those rules in mind, I resurected this obsolete stat for the 2013 Tigers:

Player	GW RBI
Miguel Cabrera	15
Torii Hunter	15
Prince Fielder	14
Victor Martinez	9
Omar Infante	8
Alex Avila	5
Andy Dirks	4
Jhonny Peralta	3
Don Kelly	3
Brayan Pena	2
Ramon Santiago	2
Austin Jackson	1
Jose Iglesias	1
Max Scherzer	1

Not surprising, Miguel Cabrera tops the list, but his co-leader, Torii Hunter, might be surprising.  Also, despite having 30 RBI, Matt Tuiasosopo doesn't have a single GW RBI, not even when he was hitting .329/.447/.624 in the first half.  

The problem with this stat is similar with the RBI stat in general.  It depends too much on timing and the teammates getting on base.  Even as a "clutch" stat, it has it's weaknesses.  Most of the time, the player wouldn't know that his RBI was the game winning one until after the game unless he had a walk-off hit.  Oftentimes the first RBI became the game winning one and most people wouldn't associate the first few innings as "clutch" innings.  With this in mind, it's easy to see why Torii Hunter had so many GW RBI, being the 2nd batter in the game and having the opportunity to drive in the first run with Austin Jackson on base.  

You might notice that the Tigers have 84 wins, but only 83 GW RBI have been awarded.  This is because of the game on 9/10, the game winning run wasn't an RBI, but rather scored on the result of an error.  Victor Martinez got the first RBI in that game, but his RBI wasn't the "game winning" run as defined by the rules.  This confused me on how to score it, but I ultimately gave no one the GW RBI in this scenario.  Going back to the earlier example of the 5-4 game, it can be debated that the 5th run should be the GW RBI and not the 3rd.  With these issues, it's easy to see why this stat was discontinued.  

All-Star Game Observations

Prologue- The Home Run Hitting contest was noteworthy due to Prince Fielder's participation.
Prince hit 5 homers in the first round, which left him on the sidelines for the rest of the contest.
Jim Leyland, no doubt, was not disappointed that the reigning HR hitting champ wouldn't have any further chance to strain anything.  Like a rib cage.  

The televised version of the HR Derby is basically ruined by the duck-squawking calls of the grating Chris Berman.  Three hours of hearing "back back back!' is essentially a form of audio torture, so the viewer listens to what he can tolerate, and either hits the mute button, or switches to any other channel.  During a 3 hour ball game, Tigers' fans were treated to Ernie Harwell's "Long Gone!" call, on average, 2 or 3 times.  Berman screeched his duck-call dozens and dozens and dozens, and dozens of times.  Chris!  Stop!  Please!

Oh well, its all for fun of course, and in 1991 I was in Toronto to watch the HR Derby live, and as with most sports, there is nothing like being there.  Another Fielder, Prince's Dad Cecil, participated and it was absolutely a lot of fun.  I supplied my own commentary, and didn't have to endure one "back back back!"

All-Star game- A lot of things to enjoy, not the least being the American League's 3-0 win, handing World Series home field advantage to the Tigers.  Or some other A.L. team, but of course.....never mind.  Tigers vs Arizona.  Welcome to Games 1 and 2 in Detroit, Gibby.

Max Scherzer did a great imitation of Max Scherzer; almost perfect, throwing a stingy 12 pitches (8 strikes) in his 1 inning of work.  After the game, Max said, "That's what it's all about, when you have success, enjoying it with your teammates..."  Nothing like watching a beaming all-star from your team having the time of his life.  Well done Max.

Miguel Cabrera, baseball's most prolific hitter, chipped in with a double and a (winning) run scored.  Jhonny Peralta was 1-1 with a single, and lightning-fast Prince Fielder provided one of the
highlight's of the night with a triple that scooted past the right fielder and was finally retrieved by
the second baseman.  By the time the ball was thrown to third base, Prince was doing an Olympic-style belly flop in the vicinity of third base.  His gleeful "whoooo" blasted thru the TV speakers, and his teammates were grinning, laughing and having a ball.  A classic All-Star moment, that illustrated that Baseball's All-Star game is both fun and competitive. 

Mariano Rivera's appearance was a perfectly executed moment, due in large part to Jim Leyland leaving no doubt that Mariano would make an appearance in his final All-Star game. Although unlikely, the possibility existed that the N.L. could score 4 runs in the 8th inning, while the A.L. failed  to score in the 9th.  No Mariano.  No standing ovation.  No more Jim Leyland.  The Tigers' manager set the stage for a majestic entrance for the future hall of famer, allowing the relief specialist to trot onto the field at the start of the inning, and while the position players stayed in the dugout, Rivera had the stage to himself.  Very cool moment for one of the classy guys in baseball.

One more observation.  The All-Star game has always intrigued me for a lot of reasons, but the one that pleases me as much as any of the others, is the colorful spectacle of the uniforms.  Every team is represented, and every uniform is on display.  There's nothing like it in sports.  The historic, classic uniforms of the Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, and of course, the Tigers. No English D this year, but those road uniforms represent our team.  And they were part of a colorful
and fantastic tradition. There is nothing like baseball.  

Jim Skinner

The 2013 All Stat Team

Last week the 2013 All-Star Team was announced.  Just like every other year, sports journalists and fans complain about snubs and immediately point to the manager to fault (even though nearly 79% of the AL roster and 71% of the NL roster is filled out by a vote of some kind.  Fans chose the starting 9 in the AL/8 in NL and the final roster spot while the players, coaches and managers vote in 8 pitchers and 9 reserves in the AL/8 reserves in the NL).  Then the manager has to make sure every team is represented when he selects the final spots.  The manager really doesn't have enough leverage on the roster to make sure that everyone deserving is on.

There are interesting debates that pop up during this time.  Do we eliminate fan voting altogether?  Do we get rid of the rule that every team must be represented?  Do we focus on the "stars" more and ignore players who are only having good half years?  Do we come up with a calculation based on certain stats to determine the rosters?  Do we expand the rosters?  

My spin on this is that I like to recognize those players who are having great years statically this year, even if it is luck-based.   I also like the rule that every team must be represented.  Because I'm using stats to determine my roster, I'm just going to call it what it is: The All Stat Team.

American League:

Starters:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Joe Mauer	MIN	403	0.320	0.402	0.473	0.380	142	140	3.9	4.0
1B	Chris Davis	BAL	393	0.315	0.392	0.717	0.458	192	193	5.1	4.5
2B	Robinson Cano	NYY	409	0.302	0.386	0.531	0.385	143	150	3.7	4.8
3B	Miguel Cabrera	DET	428	0.365	0.458	0.674	0.473	204	200	6.0	5.5
SS	Jhonny Peralta	DET	375	0.303	0.361	0.447	0.352	120	116	2.7	2.3
LF	Mike Trout	LAA	426	0.322	0.399	0.565	0.410	166	169	5.7	4.6
CF	Adam Jones	BAL	413	0.296	0.324	0.501	0.355	122	121	2.5	2.8
RF	Jose Bautista	TOR	390	0.254	0.351	0.493	0.365	129	127	3.1	2.8
DH	David Ortiz	BOS	331	0.317	0.402	0.606	0.418	164	167	2.9	2.7

Starting Pitcher:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Felix Hernandez	SEA	138 2/3	2.53	149	1.10	25.6%	2.66	64	4.2	4.7

Reserves:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Carlos Santana	CLE	329	0.275	0.382	0.466	0.367	137	141	1.7	2.4
C	Jason Castro	HOU	329	0.269	0.331	0.475	0.346	119	120	2.2	2.4
1B	Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	399	0.264	0.353	0.532	0.380	140	137	2.7	2.3
2B	Jason Kipnis	CLE	374	0.301	0.383	0.514	0.385	149	154	3.4	4.2
2B	Dustin Pedroia	BOS	432	0.316	0.396	0.436	0.365	127	125	3.7	4.5
3B	Josh Donaldson	OAK	391	0.310	0.379	0.522	0.387	149	151	4.3	4.3
3B	Evan Longoria	TB	399	0.278	0.356	0.507	0.367	137	140	4.3	3.6
3B	Manny Machado	BAL	435	0.310	0.337	0.470	0.349	118	117	4.2	5.0
SS	Jed Lowrie	OAK	383	0.295	0.364	0.424	0.346	122	121	1.8	1.2
OF	Colby Rasmus	TOR	346	0.263	0.332	0.484	0.354	122	119	3.5	3.1
OF	Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	419	0.305	0.368	0.422	0.345	114	113	3.5	3.4
OF	Desmond Jennings	TB	399	0.267	0.335	0.449	0.341	119	119	2.7	2.8

Pitchers:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Max Scherzer	DET	129 2/3	3.19	135	0.98	30.1%	2.68	65	4.0	3.8
Chris Sale	CWS	120	2.85	154	1.01	27.4%	2.94	71	3.2	4.6
Yu Darvish	TEX	119 1/3	3.02	144	1.05	32.5%	3.22	75	3.0	3.0
Justin Verlander	DET	126	3.50	123	1.34	23.3%	3.23	78	3.0	2.9
Bartolo Colon	OAK	126 2/3	2.70	144	1.11	14.0%	3.23	83	2.6	3.6
Derek Holland	TEX	125 2/3	3.08	141	1.28	23.1%	2.87	67	3.8	2.9
Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	118 2/3	2.65	153	1.05	17.7%	3.62	87	2.3	3.2
Jesse Crain	CWS	36 2/3	0.74	599	1.15	30.3%	1.53	38	2.0	2.5
Greg Holland	KC	35	1.80	231	0.91	44.4%	1.32	33	1.6	1.0
Glen Perkins	MIN	34 2/3	1.82	231	0.81	35.9%	1.79	45	1.3	1.4
Joe Nathan	TEX	39 2/3	1.36	321	0.76	28.4%	2.43	57	1.5	2.1
Drew Smyly	DET	56 2/3	1.91	226	0.97	26.0%	2.04	50	1.5	2.2

National League:

Starters:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Buster Posey	SF	367	0.325	0.395	0.536	0.398	162	167	4.1	4.2
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	406	0.313	0.395	0.557	0.405	157	158	4.2	4.8
2B	Matt Carpenter	STL	408	0.321	0.394	0.497	0.386	152	146	4.4	3.9
3B	David Wright	NYM	399	0.304	0.396	0.507	0.389	155	154	4.9	4.9
SS	Jean Segura	MIL	397	0.325	0.363	0.487	0.367	134	129	3.2	3.7
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	395	0.302	0.370	0.610	0.414	153	148	4.5	4.7
CF	Carlos Gomez	MIL	362	0.296	0.338	0.534	0.371	136	132	4.6	5.7
RF	Carlos Beltran	STL	350	0.309	0.346	0.533	0.378	146	140	1.7	2.0
DH	Joey Votto	CIN	429	0.318	0.434	0.506	0.402	157	153	3.7	4.2

Starting Pitcher:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Adam Wainwright	STL	146 2/3	2.45	151	1.01	22.7%	2.23	60	4.5	4.8

Reserves:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Yadier Molina	STL	350	0.341	0.386	0.489	0.378	146	142	4.2	4.0
C	Russell Martin	PIT	302	0.239	0.346	0.394	0.330	111	110	3.0	3.1
1B	Allen Craig	STL	381	0.333	0.378	0.494	0.378	146	140	2.1	1.7
2B	Marco Scutaro	SF	356	0.316	0.367	0.400	0.339	121	122	2.1	2.2
3B	Pedro Alvarez	PIT	334	0.250	0.311	0.516	0.351	126	130	2.5	2.2
SS	Ian Desmond	WAS	389	0.281	0.328	0.486	0.349	123	121	3.5	2.6
SS	Everth Cabrera	SD	363	0.291	0.373	0.396	0.343	120	122	2.8	2.7
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	265	0.332	0.400	0.608	0.425	161	156	3.5	3.1
OF	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	388	0.302	0.376	0.471	0.365	136	139	4.2	4.8
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	CIN	435	0.287	0.425	0.468	0.393	152	142	3.1	3.0
OF	Michael Cuddyer	COL	317	0.330	0.391	0.568	0.409	150	144	1.8	1.5
OF	Starling Marte	PIT	401	0.291	0.342	0.462	0.349	124	126	3.6	4.0

Pitchers:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Matt Harvey	NYM	130	2.35	153	0.92	29.3%	2.17	59	4.2	4.3
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	145 1/3	1.98	181	0.91	24.8%	2.52	68	3.9	5.2
Cliff Lee	PHI	138 2/3	2.86	135	1.00	23.1%	2.97	78	3.0	4.3
Jhoulys Chacin	COL	113	3.50	127	1.26	14.6%	3.18	73	2.8	4.1
Patrick Corbin	ARI	130 1/3	2.35	164	1.00	21.2%	3.18	80	2.7	3.5
Jordan Zimmermann	WAS	132 1/3	2.58	146	0.97	18.2%	3.08	81	2.8	3.4
Travis Wood	CHC	122 2/3	2.79	141	1.04	17.6%	3.59	91	2.2	3.4
Jose Fernandez	MIA	104 2/3	2.75	140	1.08	24.3%	3.22	84	1.9	2.6
Mark Melancon	PIT	44 1/3	0.81	441	0.79	27.1%	1.62	43	1.6	2.0
Craig Kimbrel	ATL	35 1/3	1.53	255	0.99	39.1%	2.30	61	1.1	1.6
Bobby Parnell	NYM	43	2.30	157	0.91	22.9%	2.06	56	1.4	1.3
Jason Grilli	PIT	40 2/3	1.99	180	0.86	39.6%	1.34	35	1.8	1.1

I'm not too concerned with injury replacements.  

Disagree?  Post your team in the comments.