2008 - 5.4% HR% | 18.9% HR/FB
2009 - 5.0% HR% | 18.3% HR/FB
2010 - 5.9% HR% | 19.8% HR/FB
2011 - 4.4% HR% | 18.2% HR/FB
2012 - 6.3% HR% | 23.0% HR/FB
This resulted in Cabrera hitting 40 HR for the first time in his career.
Cabrera also displayed less patience in 2012:
2008 - 7.3% Non-IBB% | 6 IBB
2009 - 7.9% Non-IBB% | 14 IBB
2010 - 8.8% Non-IBB% | 32 IBB
2011 - 12.5% Non-IBB% | 22 IBB
2012 - 7.0% Non-IBB% | 17 IBB
A theory could be that this is a direct result in having Prince Fielder bat behind him. The theory goes, pitchers weren't pitching around Cabrera and by getting more hittable pitches, he was hitting more HR. However, before 2010, Cabrera's non-IBB rate was between 7-8%, so he could just be reverting back to his normal level. In fact, 2011 looks like an anomaly. In 2008 and 2009, Cabrera mainly had Carlos Guillen bat behind him. In 2010, Brennan Boesch got the majority of the AB behind Cabrera and in 2011 it was Victor Martinez . None of those hitters are of the caliber of Prince Fielder. It makes me wonder if Cabrera didn't have a different approach altogether in 2011-2012. According to Pitch f/x, Cabrera did swing less in 2010-11:
2008 - 49.6% Swing%
2009 - 49.5% Swing%
2010 - 46.4% Swing%
2011 - 46.8% Swing%
2012 - 48.5% Swing%
And swung less out of the strike zone:
2008 - 36.2% O-Swing%
2009 - 33.0% O-Swing%
2010 - 28.7% O-Swing%
2011 - 27.5% O-Swing%
2012 - 30.9% O-Swing%
It could also be argued that Cabrera had his best years in 2010 and 2011:
2008 - .376 wOBA | 129 wRC+
2009 - .402 wOBA | 143 wRC+
2010 - .431 wOBA | 171 wRC+
2011 - .437 wOBA | 177 wRC+
2012 - .417 wOBA | 166 wRC+
Going forward, I would expect Cabrera's non-IBB rate to be around the 7-8% again with a lower HR total to match his 18-19% HR/FB ratio that he had before 2012. At 30 years old, he's still in the middle of his prime, so there's no reason for a huge drop-off.
Experts' Predictions/Projections :
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
580
|
0.320
|
0.405
|
0.575
|
35
|
118
|
3
|
82
|
94
|
Oliver
|
546
|
0.319
|
0.405
|
0.579
|
35
|
113
|
3
|
79
|
93
|
ZiPS
|
576
|
0.313
|
0.397
|
0.561
|
35
|
112
|
4
|
78
|
95
|
Bill James
|
602
|
0.331
|
0.413
|
0.595
|
38
|
126
|
3
|
80
|
101
|
RotoChamp
|
585
|
0.313
|
0.396
|
0.578
|
38
|
117
|
3
|
78
|
93
|
CBS Sports
|
600
|
0.338
|
0.415
|
0.608
|
39
|
133
|
3
|
79
|
95
|
ESPN
|
595
|
0.336
|
0.419
|
0.607
|
39
|
127
|
3
|
86
|
93
|
MLB.com
|
599
|
0.326
|
0.405
|
0.598
|
39
|
116
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs' Fans (70)
|
599
|
0.327
|
0.402
|
0.586
|
37
|
125
|
5
|
76
|
99
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 Prediction
|
566
|
0.327
|
0.437
|
0.592
|
34
|
111
|
2
|
101
|
88
|
2012 Actual
|
622
|
0.330
|
0.393
|
0.606
|
44
|
139
|
4
|
66
|
98
|
2013 Prediction
|
612
|
0.333
|
0.397
|
0.601
|
39
|
122
|
3
|
65
|
99
|
Fantasy impact : Cabrera has been one of the 1st 3 players taken overall, along with Mike Trout and Ryan Braun . Although Cabrera won't get you stolen bases like Trout and Braun, he will hit for more power and at a more premium position. Because 3B is a thinner position than the OF, I would rather have Cabrera and therefore I have Cabrera at #1 overall.
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