Should Andy Dirks be Replaced in LF?

Andy Dirks has been disappointing this year, hitting .238/..291/.338 before today's game.  And he's been especially awful his last 17 games, hitting .183/.216/.197 from May 26th - June 17th.  This is after hitting .322/.370/.487 in 344 PA in 2012, leading many people to believe he can be an above-average everyday left fielder.  He hit .274/.354/.397 against left-handed pitching, proving that he didn't need a platoon partner.  However, he has failed to sustain his .365 BABIP, which means that 2012 couldn't been a fluke all around.  He's only hitting left-handers at a .182/.250/.273 clip so far this year.  

James Schmehl at MLive recently posed the question that Andy Dirks' job could be in jeopardy when the Tigers need a starting pitcher on Thursday.  When Anibal Sanchez went on the disabled list, instead of recalling a pitcher right away, the Tigers elected to call up Avisail Garcia again.  This is indication that the Tigers might at least be thinking about sending Dirks down to AAA; they currently have 11 pitchers on their roster and Leyland normally keeps 12.  If Andy Dirks does become the odd man out, there are 3 viable candidates to take his place, Matt Tuiasosopo, Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos - all have their positives and negatives.
     

Matt Tuiasosopo:

Why he should be the everyday LF:  He's been hitting excellent this year, .333/.465/.551 before today's game.  He's been hitting for average, power (.217 ISO), and patience (17.4% BB rate).  His 183 wRC+ demands more playing time.    

Why he shouldn't be the everyday LF: Before this year, Tuiasosopo was a career .176/.234/.306 hitter and hadn't seen ML pitching since 2010.  At age 27 it's hard to believe that he's all of a sudden figured everything out.  Some of his stats do suggest a regression.  His BABIP is at an unsustainable .417 as it's hard to believe he can keep a 29.4% LD rate.  His HR/FB ratio is at 21.4% but his career rate is only 13.1%.

Avisail Garcia:

Why he should be the everyday LF:  He's one of the Tigers top prospects that has some success against ML pitching.  In his limited time in the majors, he's hit .296/.339/.391 while adding power in 2013 with a batting line of .279/.315/.441 with 2 HR.  In his first 10 games at AAA, he hit .467/.489/.578, suggesting that he has nothing more to learn in the minors.  The Tigers keep adding him to the roster whenever there's a spot open, even though Leyland hasn't played him as much as most people would like.

Why he shouldn't be the everyday LF:  There is one stat that stands out that needs improving with Garcia - his walk rate.  It's at 5.5% so far this year and it was regularly in the 3-4% range all through the minors.  At 22 years old, he needs to play everyday as he continues to mature as a hitter and Leyland has been criticized for playing Don Kelly more over Garcia.  If Garcia isn't getting the playing time in the majors, then he needs to get them in the minors. 

Nick Castellanos:

Why he should be the everyday LF: He's the Tigers #1 prospect and he's been playing like one so far this year.   He's hitting .293/.366/.477 so far this year at AAA and he's been especially great lately.  After hitting .237/.284/.391 in his first 169 PA, he's hit .359/.455/.580 in his last 156 PA.  He's showing that he has nothing more to prove in AAA.

Why he shouldn't be the everyday LF:  He has no ML experience.  That could be dangerous, giving a rookie an everyday role in the middle of a playoff race who has been known to struggle after getting promoted after every step in the minors.  The Tigers might not want to take the risk of having him lose confidence and like Garcia, Castellanos should be getting everyday playing time as he matures as a hitter.

It's very likely that the Tigers will send down Avisail Garcia to make room for Jose Alvarez on Thursday.  At the very least, Dirks might lose some playing time to Matt Tuiasosopo without him actually taking over the position.  As bad as Dirks has been on the hitting side, advanced stats show that Dirks has been excellent on defense so far this year as Patrick O'Kennedy of Bless You Boys has pointed out.  This has given Dirks a 0.8 fWAR and a 0.9 rWAR, which means he's on pace for about a 1.5 WAR.  While that's below average, it doesn't really warrant a trip to AAA either.  

Besides, the Tigers have more pressing needs, such as the bullpen and the Jose Valverde situation.  

Update:  Avisail Garica has indeed been sent back to AAA to make room for Jose Alvarez.   

Applying Leverage Index to the Closing Situation

Yesterday, Jose Valverde blew his third save in twelve chances and his second in six games.  In his last six games, Valverde has pitched 5 1/3 innings, giving up 10 hits, 7 earned runs, 5 home runs, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk for an 11.81 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.  His ERA went from 0.75 on May 27th to 4.15 after yesterday's disaster.  All in all, Tiger fans across the blogosphere and Twitterville are questioning if the Jose Valverde closer experiment has failed and if a change is imminent.   

Bless You Boys: Tigers Closer Jose Valverde on the hot seat
Pepper Baseball: Enough is Enough for Papa Grande...Right?
Motor City Bengals: Is Jose Valverde Dancing His Way Out of Town?
Walk Off Woodward: A Plea to Tigers Brass: End the Jose Valverde Experiment
Tiger Snark: No More Potato, Please
Motown Sports: Just How Long.......
Detroit Tigers.com Forum: ABBA Grande, The Dancing Queen

In one Tweet, tell me what the Tigers should do to solve their bullpen issues. I'll use a handful of them on MLive.
— Chris Iott (@Chris_Iott) June 13, 2013

To answer this question, I decided to look at how Tigers pitchers performed in high leverage situations:

Rk		G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Jose Alvarez	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		.000	.000	.000	.000
2	Anibal Sanchez	10	27	24	7	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	6	6.00	.167	.185	.250	.435
3	Al Alburquerque	7	22	18	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	3.00	.167	.273	.167	.439
4	Drew Smyly	10	30	27	1	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	2.67	.185	.267	.185	.452
5	Joaquin Benoit	16	48	43	2	9	2	0	0	0	0	4	13	3.25	.209	.277	.256	.532
6	Justin Verlander	12	54	48	14	11	5	0	0	1	0	4	18	4.50	.229	.296	.333	.630
7	Luke Putkonen	3	10	9	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2.00	.333	.400	.333	.733
8	Max Scherzer	11	55	46	13	13	2	0	1	0	0	6	14	2.33	.283	.352	.391	.743
9	Doug Fister	12	76	69	25	22	5	1	1	0	0	3	7	2.33	.319	.347	.464	.810
10	Darin Downs	11	28	24	8	6	2	0	1	0	0	4	7	1.75	.250	.357	.458	.815
11	Jose Valverde	10	38	33	7	8	0	0	3	1	0	5	9	1.80	.242	.342	.515	.857
12	Bruce Rondon	1	5	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		.500	.400	.500	.900
13	Phil Coke	9	36	30	8	10	3	0	1	0	0	4	6	1.50	.333	.412	.533	.945
14	Rick Porcello	9	37	33	13	13	1	0	2	0	0	4	6	1.50	.394	.459	.606	1.066
15	Jose Ortega	5	22	17	5	5	0	0	2	0	0	4	5	1.25	.294	.429	.647	1.076
16	Octavio Dotel	4	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.00	.400	.500	.600	1.100
17	Brayan Villarreal	4	12	6	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	5	4	0.80	.333	.636	1.000	1.636
	Team Total	57	508	438	117	118	24	1	12	16	4	52	116	2.23	.269	.343	.411	.754

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/13/2013.

Leverage Index attempts to quantify pressure based on the inning, score, outs and baserunners; high leverage is high pressure situations, low leverage is low pressure situations.  From FanGraphs:

During the course of a game, some situations are more tense and suspenseful than others. For instance, we know that a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning is more suspenseful than a one-run lead in the top of the third inning. Batting with two runners on and two outs in the eighth inning is filled with more pressure than batting in the same situation in the second inning. Leverage Index (LI) is merely an attempt to quantify this pressure so we can determine if a player has been used primarily in high-leverage or low-leverage situations.

From the table above, Baseball-reference used a Leverage Index of 1.5 to determine high leverage situations.  Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit have been the Tigers best relievers in high leverage situations.  Alburquerque has been sent down to AAA because of control issues, so that leaves Smyly and Benoit as the best options in high leverage situations.

One of the problems of just using the best reliever for high leverage situations as the closer is that sometimes a situation will occur earlier in the game that is more high leverage than the ninth inning.  It's because of this that people argue that the closer position is overrated.  And I agree.  I want Drew Smyly to come in the game in a crucial moment instead of waiting until the 9th inning.  I also want Drew Smyly to stay in the game until it's finished, essentially being a multiple-inning closer.

Drew Smyly is a starter by trade, so limiting him to just 1 inning doesn't make sense.  He also isn't going to start anytime soon since the first time the Tigers needed a spot starter, they called upon Jose Alvarez, saying that Smyly wasn't stretched out enough.  Leyland has primarily used Smyly in the middle innings and based on the leverage situations, his role can be labeled as "mop up."   122 of his 152 (80%) batters faced have come in low or medium leverage situations despite his great numbers in high leverage situations.  Arguably, small samples need apply.  30 batters is hardly anything concrete.  Also, using Smyly like this will cause him to miss 1-2 days between appearances.  

However, Joaquin Benoit has been just as good as Smyly in high leverage situations and 44% of his batters faced have been in such situations.  Having a plan where both Smyly and Benoit alternate the closer role, each going both the 8th and 9th (and sometimes the 7th) is what I think, the best solution.  Putting a relief pitcher in the game and not taking him out until either a) he's tired or b) ineffective is a strategy that I've always believed in (unless of course that pitcher has severe split numbers.  I'm looking at your direction, Phil Coke).  Changing pitchers until one of them blows the game is a fear I never want to see happen.

The last time a Tigers starting pitcher failed to go at least 6 innings was Rick Porcello on May 23rd.  That means the Tigers have gone 19 consecutive games where the starter has gone at least 6 innings.  In fact 48 of the 64 games (75%) the Tigers have played, the starter has gone at least 6 innings.  The need for a "long man" in the Tigers bullpen just isn't there.  The best way to maximize Smyly's talents is to use him late in the game.  

The Tigers already have relievers capable of closing.  Jim Leyland just needs to use them properly.  

Most Wins Without a Complete Game

Yesterday Max Scherzer pitched another brilliant game, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K while lowering his season ERA to 3.24.  He reached the magic number of pitches, exactly 100, and was promptly replaced.  Again, it left fans wondering just when Scherzer would get a chance at a complete game.

Below is the table of pitchers with the most wins without a complete game, something that Fox Sports Detroit seems to show whenever Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello is pitching:

Rk	Player	W	CG	From	To	Age	G	GS	SHO	GF	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+
1	Max Scherzer	60	0	2008	2013	23-28	154	145	0	2	42	.588	0	888.0	828	416	377	290	929	3.82	112
2	Tony Armas	53	0	1999	2008	21-30	185	167	0	7	65	.449	0	925.2	891	519	478	431	680	4.65	94
3	Rick Porcello	50	0	2009	2013	20-24	131	130	0	1	45	.526	0	748.2	861	414	383	191	431	4.60	93
4	Scott Olsen	37	0	2005	2010	21-26	130	127	0	0	49	.430	0	723.0	778	446	390	291	528	4.85	88
5	Bud Norris	33	0	2009	2013	24-28	111	110	0	0	42	.440	0	639.2	637	340	306	265	604	4.31	92
6	Ivan Nova	31	0	2010	2013	23-26	72	66	0	5	15	.674	0	400.1	431	209	197	140	303	4.43	95
7	Lance Lynn	27	0	2011	2013	24-26	65	43	0	4	9	.750	1	285.2	249	111	109	101	296	3.43	111
8	Mike Minor	26	0	2010	2013	22-25	66	65	0	1	17	.605	0	381.1	354	180	169	111	337	3.99	99
9	Chris Narveson	26	0	2006	2013	24-31	97	63	0	9	18	.591	0	396.2	394	213	205	150	326	4.65	87
10	Mike Thurman	26	0	1997	2002	23-28	105	87	0	9	36	.419	0	493.2	537	311	277	190	296	5.05	89

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 6/7/2013.

All of these pitchers have pitched within the last 15 years and only Tony Armas, Scott Olsen and Mike Thurman haven't pitched in 2013 from this list.  With specialized roles in the bullpen and an emphasis on pitch counts, it has already become more common to not get a complete game out of a pitcher for his career, but I don't think we're there yet in regards to Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.  It seems like both Scherzer and Porcello have taken a step forward this year, therefore it is now a matter of "when" not "if" they can go the distance.  

Max Scherzer has pitched 5 games this year while going at least 8 innings.  That's already 1 more than his career high of 4 games in 2010, for which if it wasn't for an extra inning game, he would have already recorded a complete game by going 9 innings.  

Below is a game log for Scherzer first sorted by number of innings, then number of pitches:

Date	IP	Pitches
9/1/2010	9	106
5/10/2013	8	103
4/24/2011	8	104
4/17/2013	8	105
5/4/2013	8	105
5/4/2011	8	109
7/2/2010	8	110
9/7/2012	8	110
9/1/2012	8	113
7/16/2011	8	116
5/21/2013	8	118
5/31/2013	8	119
8/26/2010	8	121
9/22/2010	8	121
6/17/2012	8	122

3 of the top 5 happened this year; he's getting closer.  Now it is up to Jim Leyland to put him back out there in the 9th.

For Rick Porcello, he only has 1 game in 2013 where he's gone 8 innings, therefore his complete game bid has been more spread out.  However, he's been much more efficient with his pitches:

Date	IP	Pitches
5/22/2011	8	84
8/1/2009	8	91
7/21/2012	8	94
5/1/2012	8	98
7/17/2010	8	99
5/28/2013	8	99
9/9/2010	8	105
9/26/2010	8	107
7/29/2011	8	107

I'm not exactly sure what Leyland's mindset was in the May game in 2011, as it looks like Porcello could have gotten a complete game without reaching the magic 100 pitch count.

After the implosion against the Angels, Porcello has a 3.48 ERA and is averaging exactly a strikeout an inning in 7 starts as he seems to have taken a big step forward this year.