2015 Preseason Prediction #1 - Miguel Cabrera

There's only so much that can be said about Miguel Cabrera before it becomes repetitive and boring.  Back-to-back MVPs, multiple All-Star appearances, .300 average, 11 straight seasons of 25+ home runs and 100+ RBI, etc.  He is one of the best hitters over the last decade, with very little competition.  But there are two variables that makes it hard to predict his 2015 stats, his health and age.  

Miguel Cabrera wasn't 100% healthy last year and his stats suffered.  Well, suffered compared to how he did the past few season.  A popular saying around the Tiger fandom is that a 70% Cabrera is still better than 90% of the league.  Cabrera finished with a .313/.371/.524 batting line, a line that most hitters will happily take.  His 147 wRC+ was good for T-10 in all of baseball.  However, after what Cabrera did in 2012/13, Tiger fans were expecting a bit more out of him:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2012	0.330	0.393	0.606	166
2013	0.348	0.442	0.636	192
2014	0.313	0.371	0.524	147

Miguel Cabrera is coming off his 2nd off-season surgery in a row.  Will Cabrera be 100% healthy in 2015?  And if so, for how long?  A 70% Cabrera might still be one of the best hitters in the league, but it's still not as good as a 100% Cabrera.  

Another factor is his age.  Cabrera is entering his age 32 season, an age that usually depicts a player exiting his "prime" years and entering his decline.  Even if Cabrera is 100% healthy all season long, there is still a chance he won't be as good as his 2012/13 seasons based on age alone.  Of course there are outliers, with Victor Martinez having his best season at age 35 being a perfect example, but those occurrences are so rare that they may not even be worth mentioning.  

Miguel Cabrera failed to hit .320+ for the first time since his age 25 season and failed to hit 30+ home runs for the first time since his age 23 season.  His slugging percentage was the lowest it's been since his age 21 season.  Cabrera hit twice as many doubles in 2014 as he did in 2013.  When a young hitter is first developing his power, experts would say that all the doubles he hits will turn into home runs once he reaches his full power potential.  Well, Cabrera had the opposite effect last year.  All the home runs he hit in 2013 turned into doubles in 2014.  Whether this is more to due with his health or age I have no idea, but I'm leaning more towards age.  I think the days of Cabrera hitting 40+ home runs are gone, even if he can stay relatively healthy.  However, he should still be one of the best hitters in 2015, even if he's not #1 anymore.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	544	0.314	0.390	0.549	30	99	2	67	101
CAIRO	589	0.315	0.389	0.548	32	98	3	68	110
ZiPS	578	0.310	0.382	0.542	31	113	3	69	105
RotoChamp	560	0.325	0.394	0.564	31	113	2	64	99
CBS Sports	595	0.319	0.389	0.571	34	122	1	68	103
ESPN	554	0.318	0.386	0.554	29	109	2	63	101
MLB.com	568	0.313	0.387	0.548	31	107	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (44)	574	0.321	0.392	0.552	31	111	2	68	101

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	561	0.332	0.430	0.585	35	114	3	96	96
2014 Actual	611	0.313	0.371	0.524	25	109	1	60	117
2015 Prediction	572	0.327	0.389	0.530	26	104	0	58	102

Fantasy Impact: Cabrera is probably not a #1 overall pick anymore.  Heck, he probably isn't the #1 first baseman anymore if Jose Abreu can repeat his rookie season.  He should still have first round value though, especially considering that he has 3B eligibility in some leagues.