2015 Preseason Prediction #10 - Shane Greene

Shane Greene was acquired from the New York Yankees in a 3-way deal that sent Robbie Ray and Domingo Leyba to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

The following data is taking from Brooks Baseball:

Pitch Type	Frequency	K	BAA
Sinker	37.1%	10	0.318
Cutter	27.7%	36	0.235
Slider	16.3%	19	0.156
Fourseam	14.2%	9	0.245
Change	4.7%	7	0.333

Greene's repertoire looks similar to Rick Porcello's, who relies on his sinker to get a lot of ground balls (50.2%).  The biggest difference is that Greene has a strikeout pitch in the cutter.  However, many Tiger fans are making the comparison to Doug Fister, who's minor league stats weren't that impressive but has had great success in the majors:

Minor Leagues	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Doug Fister	4.30	1.381	6.7	2.2
Shane Greene	4.39	1.479	8.2	3.6

Like Fister, Greene has been successful for the Yankees (albeit only 1/2 season) with his ERA estimators showing that his ERA was not really a fluke:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	K/9	BB/9
3.78	3.73	3.40	3.41	9.3	3.3

This is encouraging not only to the Tigers rotation, but from a trade standpoint too as Greene looks to be a better pitcher than many people were predicting Ray to be.  This does beg the question of what Shane Greene was doing different in the Majors than from the Minors and if he can keep it up.

The reason why I loved the Tiger acquisition of Doug Fister but I'm still leery on Shane Greene is that Fister already established himself with 378 Major League innings before the Tigers acquired him.  Greene has only 78 2/3 Major League innings.  Fister was able to make adjustments, even after the Tigers acquired him.  Who knows if Greene can do that same?  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	129	8-8	4.42	1.37	96	45
CAIRO	128	7-7	4.17	1.56	106	50
ZiPS	140 2/3	8-7	4.48	1.44	115	53
RototChamp	130	8-7	4.15	1.39	114	49
CBS Sports	180	12-9	3.55	1.31	176	58
ESPN	162	9 W	4.56	1.52	136	69
MLB.com	165	10-9	3.93	1.36	131	59
FanGraphs' Fans (20)	154	9-8	3.93	1.25	143	54

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	78 2/3	5-4	3.78	1.398	81	29
2015 Prediction	157	7-10	4.47	1.510	135	61

Fantasy Impact: Shane Greene should probably be a non-factor during the draft.  However, keep an eye on him in the waiver wire.  If the 9 K/9 is for real, that's a lot of strikeouts to be had and a high strikeout rate usually results in a low ERA.