Batted ball data taken from FanGraphs:
| BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
0.326
|
28.5%
|
35.0%
|
36.5%
|
General consensus is that Castellanos' BABIP was low given the LD rate he posted (which was the 2nd highest in all of baseball). This caused Castellanos' batting average to only be .259 - again low given the the amount of line drives he hit.
It's hard to predict someone like Castellanos. The league is going to make adjustments, therefore Nick will have to make adjustments. Can Nick have a high LD rate again? And if so, is he prone to bad fortune relative to his LD rate? Can he improve his strikeout rate and walk rate, which will also effect his BABIP?
Remember, Nick Castellanos is only entering his age 23 season. The fact that he was able to accomplish as much as he did at such a young age in his rookie year gives a lot of hope going forward.
Two things that translate well from the minors to the majors are walk rates and strikeout rates:
| Level | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|
Minors
|
7.9%
|
19.9%
|
MLB (2014)
|
6.2%
|
24.2%
|
Nick Castellanos under-performed in both areas based on what he did in the minors. As he continues to learn MLB hitting and mature in his prime years, there's a good chance that both of these numbers will improve, hopefully as soon as 2015.
Looking at his power numbers:
Looking at his power numbers:
| Level | ISO | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|
Minors
|
0.129
|
N/A
|
MLB (2014)
|
0.135
|
7.5%
|
Batted ball data for minor league players is hard to get. Minor League Central gives these stats, but I'm not sure how accurate they are. They give a HR/FB ratio of 7.9% for Castellanos in the minors (excluding 2010), however how much weight should we put on that number? They give an 11% HR/FB ratio at AAA. It's reasonable to assume that this number will go up as Castellanos gains muscle and starts to hit more home runs. How much will it go up in 2015, though? I think it's safe that he will be around league average, which was 9.5% in 2014.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
495
|
0.265
|
0.313
|
0.414
|
14
|
61
|
4
|
33
|
109
|
CAIRO
|
540
|
0.253
|
0.313
|
0.387
|
12
|
52
|
5
|
42
|
130
|
ZiPS
|
572
|
0.280
|
0.327
|
0.442
|
17
|
77
|
3
|
40
|
122
|
RotoChamp
|
544
|
0.263
|
0.310
|
0.393
|
12
|
66
|
2
|
37
|
136
|
CBS Sports
|
550
|
0.258
|
0.308
|
0.407
|
14
|
71
|
4
|
40
|
131
|
ESPN
|
584
|
0.264
|
0.311
|
0.408
|
14
|
69
|
3
|
40
|
139
|
MLB.com
|
545
|
0.266
|
0.316
|
0.411
|
15
|
72
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs' Fans (20)
|
549
|
0.273
|
0.326
|
0.434
|
16
|
70
|
4
|
43
|
130
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
533
|
0.253
|
0.306
|
0.409
|
16
|
61
|
3
|
38
|
125
|
2014 Actual
|
533
|
0.259
|
0.306
|
0.394
|
11
|
66
|
2
|
36
|
140
|
2015 Prediction
|
571
|
0.261
|
0.314
|
0.417
|
16
|
70
|
2
|
44
|
125
|
Fantasy Impact: The problem here is that 3B is a deep position, especially considering that Miguel Cabrera is still eligible at 3B in some leagues. Mock Draft Central has an average draft position of 265, which is one of the last couple of round in a standard 12-team league. He's a good risk to take in the last couple of round in case he breaks out, but chances are his true breakout season is a couple of years away.
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