2015 Preseason Prediction #12 and #13 - Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis

I'm combining both Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis in one post because they are expected to platoon at the centerfield position.  

Davis has been exceptional against LHP:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2012	0.285	0.345	0.437	0.340	112
2013	0.319	0.383	0.474	0.376	136
2014	0.356	0.382	0.557	0.408	164
Career	0.304	0.358	0.446	0.353	120

While Gose is expected to get the playing time against RHP:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2012	0.207	0.305	0.296	0.275	67
2013	0.287	0.306	0.481	0.339	110
2014	0.238	0.329	0.312	0.295	84
Career	0.241	0.316	0.350	0.299	85

While not as spectacular as Davis' platoon numbers, Gose's career 85 wRC+ is better than Davis' career 74 wRC+ against RHP.

Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis are on opposite ends of their prime years.  Gose is entering his age 24 season, an age where many players have their breakout seasons (and if Spring Training is any indication, Gose is going to have a nice breakout year this year).  Davis is entering his age 34 season and is on the verge of exiting is prime years.  Therefore, we can expect Gose's numbers to improve this year and Davis' numbers to start to decline.

Anthony Gose is the lefty-hitter of the platoon and has superior defense, so his playing time will be much higher than Rajai's.  Davis' playing time will largely depend on Tyler Collins.  If the Tigers go with Collins as an extra outfielder instead of Hernan Perez or Andrew Romine, there will not be a lot of playing time for Davis in either LF or RF.  However, if the Tigers go with Perez and Romine for the final 2 bench spots, Davis will be the primary backup for the corners and his playing time will increase.


As far as power is concerned, Rajai tied a career high in HR with 8, but was fairly consistent in his ISO and HR/FB ratios over the last few years:

Year	ISO	HR/FB
2012	0.121	7.3%
2013	0.115	6.0%
2014	0.119	6.8%

And Gose looks to have even less power:

Year	ISO	HR/FB
2012	0.096	4.8%
2013	0.150	7.4%
2014	0.067	7.1%
Career	0.098	6.6%

Gose's 2013 ISO looks to be a fluke given his low PA (153).  

Of course, you don't care about these players' power numbers.  What about their speed!  Rajai Davis has stolen at least 30 bases each year since 2009, with a career high of 50 in 2010.  Anthony Gose, while only at 34 steals in 616 career PA, has stolen as much as 76 bases in A-ball in 2009 and 69 bases in 2011 in AA.

The question remains on where they will bat in the batting order.  Davis' BB% was only 4.5% last year and is at 5.5% career-wise.  His OBP is helped by having a high batting average.  Gose had a very good 9.1% BB% last year (matching his 9.1% walk rate in AAA), but his OBP isn't much better than Davis' due to a very low batting average.  If both these players are stuck in the bottom of the batting order because of poor OBP, then they might not have many stolen base attempts.  However, having the platoon advantage should help and it looks like they will both be batting in the top of the order when they are playing.  

Anthony Gose:

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	338	0.235	0.296	0.343	5	33	19	27	91
CAIRO	513	0.222	0.289	0.318	6	47	30	41	152
ZiPS	523	0.254	0.314	0.348	6	44	34	40	131
RotoChamp	285	0.232	0.301	0.309	3	23	16	25	80
CBS Sports	420	0.231	0.299	0.321	3	28	28	41	131
ESPN	365	0.230	0.297	0.329	4	28	23	30	107
MLB.com	415	0.241	0.309	0.318	4	33	23	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	416	0.248	0.322	0.317	2	36	21	39	117

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	239	0.226	0.311	0.293	2	13	15	25	74
2015 Prediction	393	0.242	0.324	0.346	4	39	20	41	122

Rajai Davis:

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	331	0.265	0.310	0.377	5	32	26	18	62
CAIRO	432	0.261	0.309	0.378	7	58	33	24	86
ZiPS	400	0.268	0.310	0.375	6	39	35	21	73
RotoChamp	420	0.255	0.298	0.364	7	42	33	22	75
CBS Sports	300	0.267	0.308	0.380	5	30	21	18	58
ESPN	406	0.268	0.312	0.379	6	37	39	22	73
MLB.com	360	0.272	0.299	0.367	5	34	31	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	422	0.273	0.310	0.367	5	39	29	19	75

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	461	0.282	0.320	0.401	8	51	36	22	75
2015 Prediction	319	0.273	0.320	0.379	5	27	30	19	59

Fantasy Impact: Speed, speed and more speed.  The only reason to draft either Anthony Gose or Rajai Davis is the potential high stolen bases.  Both players are capable of stealing 30+ bases.  Anthony Gose is the sexier pick due to their respected places in their careers.  Davis is the safer pick due to his experience.