I was wrong.
For the 2nd year in a row, Justin Verlander has fallen below expectations. From 2009-2012, it could be argued that Verlander was the best pitcher in all of baseball. Since then, his ERA has risen, his strikeouts have fallen and his velocity on his fastball keeps declining. He's showing signs of a pitcher in his late 30s on his way to retirement, yet he is only entering his age 32 season. What gives?
Most people point to his core muscle surgery during the 2013-14 off-season as the main reason for Verlander's struggles. This caused Verlander to not go through his normal off-season routine and therefore Verlander was never "right" during the regular season.
Verlander's monthly 2014 splits:
| Month | ERA | K% | BB% | HR% | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mar/Apr
|
2.48
|
18.2%
|
8.8%
|
0.6%
|
3.03
|
May
|
5.54
|
14.8%
|
9.1%
|
1.7%
|
4.11
|
June
|
6.82
|
19.6%
|
8.4%
|
3.5%
|
4.74
|
July
|
4.78
|
14.7%
|
6.6%
|
3.7%
|
4.85
|
Aug
|
4.08
|
21.3%
|
6.3%
|
1.6%
|
2.99
|
Sept/Oct.
|
3.89
|
19.2%
|
3.6%
|
1.4%
|
2.84
|
Verlander started strong with a 2.48 ERA and a 3.03 FIP, but struggled during the middle of the summer months. The strong finish shown in FIP could be a sign of hope for 2015. Now it is possible that Verlander was still struggling with his injury or suffered a setback during his struggling months. Or, it is possible that Verlander is just going through the normal aging curve.
First of all, Verlander's velocity is decreasing:
| Year | Average FB Velocity |
|---|---|
2011
|
95.0
|
2012
|
94.7
|
2013
|
94.0
|
2014
|
93.1
|
And this has led to a decrease in strikeout rates:
| Year | K% |
|---|---|
2011
|
25.8%
|
2012
|
25.0%
|
2013
|
23.5%
|
2014
|
17.8%
|
And of course the rising ERA; after having an ERA of below 3.00 in 2011 and 2012, Verlander's ERA was 3.46 in 2013 and 4.54 in 2014. But how can this be normal aging if Verlander is still supposedly in his prime? Well, one theory is that pitchers only have so many bullets in their arms and Verlander threw over 953 innings from 2009-12; only Felix Hernandez threw more innings during that time. It could be that Verlander threw so many innings early on in his career that he's showing the aging curve much sooner than anticipated.
Of course, it doesn't have to be an either/or scenario. It is likely that there is contributions from both his injury and the normal aging curve that caused his horrible 2014 season. ERA estimators show that Verlander's ERA should have been closer to 4.2 than 4.5, however the defense was likely the reason for this. The good news is that the defense should be improved in 2015.
| Year | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2014
|
4.54
|
3.74
|
4.19
|
4.17
|
Everything is going right so far during Spring Training for Verlander. He's worked on a new delivery, claims he is stronger after adding muscle in the off-season, is "in the best shape of his life" and any other cliche that you want to throw out there. Last year I took an optimistic approach and it backfired. This year I'm going to take the pessimistic approach and hope for the same effect.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
204
|
12-11
|
4.02
|
1.27
|
163
|
60
|
CAIRO
|
210
|
16-7
|
3.50
|
1.32
|
183
|
62
|
ZiPS
|
202 1/3
|
14-10
|
3.78
|
1.27
|
183
|
60
|
RotoChamp
|
197
|
13-9
|
3.75
|
1.34
|
171
|
62
|
CBS Sports
|
215
|
15-11
|
3.64
|
1.27
|
186
|
57
|
ESPN
|
210
|
13 W
|
4.03
|
1.29
|
191
|
65
|
MLB.com
|
201
|
13-11
|
3.94
|
1.31
|
157
|
61
|
FanGraphs' Fans (15)
|
216
|
15-10
|
3.72
|
1.22
|
186
|
64
|
My Prediction:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
229
|
17-8
|
2.91
|
1.109
|
223
|
70
|
2014 Actual
|
206
|
15-12
|
4.54
|
1.398
|
159
|
65
|
2015 Prediction
|
209 2/3
|
13-11
|
4.25
|
1.369
|
181
|
68
|
Fantasy Impact: Normally I stay away from starting pitchers over the age of 30. Add in the fact that Verlander is coming off a horrible season and I'm not in any rush to draft Verlander. I assume most Tiger fans are going to draft Verlander as a good bounce-back candidate and that may very well be a good strategy. I'm just going to let someone else use that strategy. Mock Draft Central currently has him going in the middle of the 17th round in a standard 12-team league, but personally I think he has more 20th round value.
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