Now going forward, how are we supposed to treat him 2014 season? Usually when I do these predictions, I look at the most recent 3 seasons and then make small adjustments based on "luck," age and other factors. Is there anything about V-Mart's 2014 season that can carry forward to 2015, or is that whole season one big fluke? Victor had the highest AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, HR and RBI of his career last year. He also had the lowest K rate of his career.
When someone has a high AVG, it usually is accompanied by a high BABIP. But this is not the case with V-Mart. His BABIP was exactly the same as his career mark, .316. Yet, his AVG was 29 points higher than his career AVG, .335 to .306. Batted ball data was also not that different:
| Year | AVG | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.330
|
0.343
|
24.2%
|
42.7%
|
33.1%
|
2013
|
0.301
|
0.313
|
22.3%
|
42.3%
|
35.4%
|
2014
|
0.335
|
0.316
|
21.3%
|
40.6%
|
38.1%
|
Career
|
0.306
|
0.316
|
20.8%
|
42.8%
|
36.3%
|
He hit more fly balls and less ground balls, which makes sense given the number of home runs he hit. However, his HR/FB ratio was still the highest of his career, a number that typically would regress the following season.
| Year | ISO | HR% | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.141
|
2.0%
|
7.3%
|
2013
|
0.129
|
2.1%
|
7.2%
|
2014
|
0.230
|
5.0%
|
16.0%
|
Career
|
0.168
|
3.1%
|
10.7%
|
Finally, there's the injury concern. He needed surgery again on the same knee that made him miss all of the 2012 season. The good news is that he would only miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his return right around opening day. Factoring in this injury makes me hesitant that he will continue to defy the laws of aging. On one hand he's entering his age 36 season, will be missing all of Spring Training and will need time to get his groove back (just like in 2013). On the other hand, the surgery isn't as sever as it was in 2012 and he is coming off his best season of his career, which may or may not be a fluke. I'm taking the conservative route here, which probably means he'll hit 30+ home runs again.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
466
|
0.308
|
0.375
|
0.485
|
18
|
74
|
2
|
49
|
45
|
CAIRO
|
573
|
0.309
|
0.375
|
0.483
|
22
|
77
|
3
|
59
|
61
|
ZiPS
|
478
|
0.303
|
0.360
|
0.473
|
18
|
79
|
1
|
44
|
46
|
RotoChamp
|
372
|
0.304
|
0.374
|
0.457
|
12
|
62
|
1
|
42
|
31
|
CBS Sports
|
560
|
0.316
|
0.378
|
0.502
|
23
|
98
|
1
|
56
|
50
|
ESPN
|
545
|
0.312
|
0.378
|
0.484
|
21
|
81
|
2
|
58
|
48
|
MLB.com
|
530
|
0.313
|
0.387
|
0.487
|
20
|
86
|
1
|
||
FanGraphs' Fans (23)
|
543
|
0.313
|
0.377
|
0.477
|
19
|
88
|
0
|
58
|
52
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
564
|
0.309
|
0.360
|
0.441
|
13
|
91
|
0
|
48
|
59
|
2014 Actual
|
561
|
0.335
|
0.409
|
0.565
|
32
|
103
|
3
|
70
|
42
|
2015 Prediction
|
533
|
0.310
|
0.375
|
0.452
|
15
|
94
|
1
|
57
|
48
|
Fantasy Impact: The hard part about drafting a DH is that it leaves you with absolutely no flexibility; you have to use him in a UTL spot (although V-Mart does have 1B eligibility). This wasn't a problem last year as V-Mart helped you in all categories other than SB. This year, if everything regresses to the mean, he won't help you as much. Someone like Adam Lind could give you similar results without the name recognition value. Grab him if he falls, but he'll likely get over-drafted as most flukes are over-drafted the following year. Unless of course he continues to defy logic and reasoning.
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