2015 Preseason Prediction #4 - Anibal Sanchez

The most frustrating thing about Anibal Sanchez is his inability to stay healthy.  He's been on the disabled list 3 times since the Tigers acquired him and only pitched 126 innings in 2014.  During his time with the Tigers, Sanchez has a great ERA (3.08) with an even better FIP (2.75) and has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the league.  

Looking at his trends is a tad confusing:

Year	K/9	BB/9	HR/FB
2011	9.26	2.93	10.4%
2012	7.68	2.21	10.7%
2013	9.99	2.67	5.8%
2014	7.29	2.14	3.1%

The walk rate is the easiest to predict, it has been under 3.0 for four straight years therefore it'll probably be under 3.0 again in 2015.  

The strikeout rate has an odd trend; the every other year trend would say that Sanchez is primed to have a strikeout per 9 of around 9.0 again.  However, the "every other year" thing hardly has any substance.  According to Brooks Baseball, here is Anibal Sanchez' breakdown of strikeouts by pitch type:

Year	Hard	Breaking	Off-Speed
2011	18.0%	35.6%	33.7%
2012	15.5%	24.1%	30.1%
2013	24.4%	34.1%	33.3%
2014	24.9%	15.8%	24.0%

It looks like the biggest difference is in his breaking pitch, which was cut almost in half from a year ago.  If Sanchez is able to get that rate back up to around 35% again, he should have a K/9 of around 9.0 again.  However, the effectiveness of his slider and curve wasn't a major issue last year, so the need of getting this number back up may not be a pressing one.  The ability to stay healthy might also effect his strikeout rates.  

Finally, the most bizarre stat is his home run to fly ball ratio.  This stat usually stabilizes, which is why the xFIP stat was created.  FIP uses the individual pitcher's HR rate (along with strikeouts and walks), but xFIP substitutes this stat for the league average HR/FB ratio, which was 9.5% in 2014.  The thinking is that the pitcher has very little control in this stat, therefore when predicting future ERA, xFIP is better because it attempts to take "luck" away from this stat.  HR/FB ratio has only been tracked since 2002, but it is usually around 10%.  

In Anibal Sanchez' case, this stat has been below average for 2 years now after being right around "normal" for the 2 years prior.  Now, Sanchez only pitched 126 innings last year, so maybe he didn't pitch enough for this stat to stabilize.  Conventional wisdom says that this stat will not stay low for 2015.  

Sanchez' xFIP was 3.56 last year compared to a 2.71 FIP.  SIERA, which is another ERA estimator that uses batted ball data, was 3.64 last year.  Therefore, Sanchez' FIP was probably overrated last year.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	163	11-9	3.76	1.21	143	42
CAIRO	156	8-9	3.06	1.21	141	41
ZiPS	152	11-6	3.43	1.20	138	40
RotoChamp	149	11-6	3.02	1.14	138	39
CBS Sports	195	13-9	3.60	1.19	186	48
ESPN	184	13 W	3.67	1.20	165	50
MLB.com	191	13-8	3.53	1.15	161	46
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	163	12-8	3.45	1.18	149	43

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	191	14-7	3.39	1.246	200	60
2014 Actual	126	8-5	3.43	1.095	102	30
2015 Prediction	173 2/3	13-7	3.68	1.198	144	45

Fantasy Impact:  According to Mock Draft Central, Anibal Sanchez has an average draft position of about 156.  That would be in the 13th round in a typical 12-team league.  Given his injury concerns and fluctuating strikeout rate, this may be too high.  I love pitching that gives me strikeouts and the fact that it is not guaranteed that Sanchez will have a 9.0 K/9 has me leery on him, especially if he is only going to give about 160-170 innings.  The HR/FB rate also scares me since that's a sign that his ERA could jump.