Monday, April 29, 2013

Jose Valverde – Still No Splitter

Last year, Jose Valverde lost confidence in his splitter towards the end of the season. By the end of the year, he was throwing mostly 4-seam fastballs, which resulted in a 5.02 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in September/October during the regular season (according to Pitch f/x, Valverde threw 236 pitches in that time from, 197 were 4-seam fastballs, 83.5% and 39 were splitters, 16.5%). In the playoffs it got worse, 30.38 ERA, 4.50 WHIP in 2 2/3 IP and he was eventually replaced by Phil Coke for the closer's role. No one was willing to sign Valverde in the off-season because of that performance and lack of an effective secondary pitch. The Tigers eventually signed him at the end of Spring Training to a minor league deal after realizing Bruce Rondon wasn't quite ready. After 3 games in Lakeland, he's back in the Major Leagues and was immediately named the closer by Jim Leyland , who likes to have specialized roles for his relief pitchers.

Valverde has pitched in 3 games and retired all 9 hitters he's faced, notching 2 saves. Here's a game-by-game breakdown:

April 24th

 

Result: Fly out, ground out, fly out, save #1.
Process: Valverde threw a total of 18 pitches, all of them were 4-seam fastballs.  The weather was chilly, so maybe he couldn’t get a good grip on the splitter.  Both fly balls were hit to the warning track that might have been homers in other parks.  Valverde looked shaky in his first appearance. 

April 27th


Result: Fly out, strikeout, strikeout, save #2.

Process: Valverde threw 14 pitches, 12 were 4-seam fastballs and 2 were splitters.  Both splitters were in the same AB to Evan Gattis.  His fastball was most impressive, though, reaching 95 MHP, something he didn’t do often in 2012.

April 28th
No video.

Result: Lineout, groundout, groundout.

Process: Only 6 pitches in this non-save situation, all 4-seam fastballs as he cleaned up the mess started by Al Alburquerque.  He pitched out of the stretch for the first time in this appearance.  

Overall:  Small samples and it’s still early.  Valverde has thrown a total of 38 pitches in his three appearances; 36 were 4-seam fastballs (94.7%) and only 2 were splitters (5.3%).  Valverde hasn't shown much of anything different so far this year that made him struggle last year, except maybe a few MPH on his fastball in one appearance.  His windup has changed slightly as he's not as pronounced when he does the twist before he pitches.  The results have been much better, though.  I just wonder how much longer he can keep it up as many people think the key to his success is the rejuvenation of an effective splitter.     

Monday, April 22, 2013

Rick Porcello and Plate Discipline

Rick Porcello had an awful start on Saturday, giving up 9 ER in 2/3 of an inning. Much has been written on how he was unfortunate on some of the ground balls turning into hits that weren't hit particularly well. Rather than give my opinion on whether or not Porcello deserves another start, I’ll take this time to talk about plate discipline. FanGraphs gives plate discipline stats via Pitch f/x as shown below:

O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone%
2012
32.4%
61.8%
46.6%
69.4%
91.7%
83.7%
48.2%
2013
31.0%
63.6%
45.1%
80.0%
95.7%
89.6%
43.1%

These stats can get confusing without the raw data. We know that Porcello has thrown 255 pitches so far this year. That's enough information to reverse-engineer these stats to show the raw numbers. I've also changed the format of the table to hopefully make it more clear:

2013 255
Total Pitches
Total
110
In Zone
145
Out Zone
40
Non-Swing
70
Swing
100
Non-Swing
45
Swing
115
Total Swing
3
Non-Contact
67
Contact
9
Non-Contact
36
Contact
103
Total Contact

110/255 = 43.1% Zone%
70/110 = 63.6% Z-Swing%
67/70 = 95.7% Z-Contact%
115/255 = 45.1% Swing%
103/115 = 89.6% Contact%
And so on.

Below is a comparison between Porcello's 2013 and 2012 percentages. Obviously there is a small sample issue here since Porcello only has 13 innings in 2013. However, it could be interesting to see the differences:

2013 255
Total Pitches
Total
43.1%
In Zone
56.9%
Out Zone
36.4%
Non-Swing
63.6%
Swing
69.0%
Non-Swing
31.0%
Swing
45.1%
Total Swing
4.3%
Non-Contact
95.7%
Contact
20%
Non-Contact
80.0%
Contact
89.6%
Total Contact

2012 2828
Total Pitches
Total
48.2%
In Zone
51.8%
Out Zone
38.2%
Non-Swing
61.8%
Swing
67.6%
Non-Swing
32.4%
Swing
46.6%
Total Swing
8.3%
Non-Contact
91.7%
Contact
30.6%
Non-Contact
69.4%
Contact
83.7%
Total Contact

Difference Total
-5.1%
In Zone
5.1%
Out Zone
-1.8%
Non-Swing
1.8%
Swing
1.4%
Non-Swing
-1.4%
Swing
-1.5%
Total Swing
-4%
Non-Contact
4%
Contact
-10.6%
Non-Contact
10.6%
Contact
5.9%
Total Contact

The major difference is the 10.6% more contact on out of zone pitches instead of swinging and missing. This could explain why Porcello only has 3 strikeouts so far this year. Porcello was never a strikeout pitcher, but his 2.08 K/9 and 4.8% K rate are lower than the 5.46 K/9 and 13.7% K rate he put up last year. Again, I should point out the small sample size, so these numbers could certainly improve over the year.

Pitch f/x does however break these stats down to individual pitch types, and I can't pass up comparing these over the last 2 years to see if there's a particular pitch giving Porcello trouble in the early goings:

2-Seam Fastball


2013 39.2% Total
47%
In Zone
53%
Out Zone
34%
Non-Swing
66%
Swing
64.1%
Non-Swing
35.9%
Swing
50%
Total Swing
0%
Non-Contact
100%
Contact
10.5%
Non-Contact
89.5%
Contact
96%
Total Contact

2012 45.2% Total
55%
In Zone
45%
Out Zone
40.7%
Non-Swing
59.3%
Swing
65.1%
Non-Swing
34.9%
Swing
48.3%
Total Swing
6.0%
Non-Contact
94.0%
Contact
23.4%
Non-Contact
76.6%
Contact
88.4%
Total Contact

Difference -6.0% Total
-8.0%
In Zone
8%
Out Zone
-6.7%
Non-Swing
6.7%
Swing
-1.0%
Non-Swing
1.0%
Swing
1.7%
Total Swing
-6.0%
Non-Contact
6.0%
Contact
-12.9%
Non-Contact
12.9%
Contact
7.6%
Total Contact

The 2-seam fastball is what Pitch f/x is calling his sinker. This is his supposed bread-and-butter pitch. He's throwing it 6% less often overall; 8% more out of the zone and hitters are making 7.6% more contact - including 12.9% more contact out of the zone. Just throwing this out there, but maybe Porcello's sinker isn't sinking enough, causing hitters to make more contact. I have nothing to back up this theory, just throwing it out there. The goal of the sinker is to make hitters hit ground balls, not make them swing and miss and hitters are hitting 7.5% more ground balls on Porcello's sinker this year than last year (67.9% in 2013, 60.4% in 2012). So this could be viewed as moving in the right direction.

4-Seam Fastball
2013 24.3% Total
41.9%
In Zone
58.1%
Out Zone
30.8%
Non-Swing
69.2%
Swing
77.8%
Non-Swing
22.2%
Swing
41.9%
Total Swing
11.1%
Non-Contact
88.9%
Contact
25.0%
Non-Contact
75.0%
Contact
84.6%
Total Contact

2012 21.6% Total
52.4%
In Zone
47.6%
Out Zone
40.3%
Non-Swing
59.7%
Swing
75.6%
Non-Swing
24.4%
Swing
42.9%
Total Swing
7.3%
Non-Contact
92.7%
Contact
26.8%
Non-Contact
73.2%
Contact
87.4%
Total Contact

Difference 2.7% Total
-10.5%
In Zone
10.5%
Out Zone
-9.5%
Non-Swing
9.5%
Swing
2.2%
Non-Swing
-2.2%
Swing
-1.0%
Total Swing
3.8%
Non-Contact
-3.8%
Contact
-1.8%
Non-Contact
1.8%
Contact
-2.8%
Total Contact

Porcello is throwing his 4-seam fastball 10.5% more out of the zone. Batters are also swinging at it 9.5% more often in the zone, but are swinging and missing at it 3.8% more. 2 of the 3 HR he's given up has come off the 4-seam fastball and batters are hitting .400 against it, so it hasn't been a very effective pitch so far this year.

Change Up


2013 15.7% Total
32.5%
In Zone
67.5%
Out Zone
30.8%
Non-Swing
69.2%
Swing
48.1%
Non-Swing
51.9%
Swing
57.5%
Total Swing
11.1%
Non-Contact
88.9%
Contact
35.7%
Non-Contact
64.3%
Contact
73.9%
Total Contact

2012 13.6% Total
34.2%
In Zone
65.8%
Out Zone
25.9%
Non-Swing
74.1%
Swing
59.1%
Non-Swing
40.9%
Swing
52.2%
Total Swing
14.4%
Non-Contact
85.6%
Contact
34.0%
Non-Contact
66.0%
Contact
75.5%
Total Contact

Difference 2.1% Total
-1.7%
In Zone
1.7%
Out Zone
4.9%
Non-Swing
-4.9%
Swing
-11.0%
Non-Swing
11.0%
Swing
5.3%
Total Swing
-3.3%
Non-Contact
3.3%
Contact
1.7%
Non-Contact
-1.7%
Contact
-1.6%
Total Contact

The big difference here is the 11.0% O-Swing rate and they are making slightly less contact on those swings. Hitters are only batting .091 against Porcello's change up, so it looks to be a pretty good pitch for him early on.

Curveball


2013 20.8% Total
45.3%
In Zone
54.7%
Out Zone
50.0%
Non-Swing
50.0%
Swing
86.2%
Non-Swing
13.8%
Swing
30.2%
Total Swing
0.0%
Non-Contact
100.0%
Contact
0.0%
Non-Contact
100.0%
Contact
100.0%
Total Contact

This is really surprising to see. Whenever a batter decides to swing at a curveball, they've made contact.

2012 3.2% Total
33.3%
In Zone
66.7%
Out Zone
40.0%
Non-Swing
60.0%
Swing
75.0%
Non-Swing
25.0%
Swing
36.7%
Total Swing
11.1%
Non-Contact
88.9%
Contact
40.0%
Non-Contact
60.0%
Contact
75.8%
Total Contact

Difference 17.6% Total
12.0%
In Zone
-12.0%
Out Zone
10.0%
Non-Swing
-10.0%
Swing
11.2%
Non-Swing
-11.2%
Swing
-6.7%
Total Swing
-11.1%
Non-Contact
11.1%
Contact
-40.0%
Non-Contact
40.0%
Contact
24.2%
Total Contact

Porcello is throwing his curveball 17.6% more often then he did in 2012. This is an experiment worth watching, since Porcello ditched his slider in favor of throwing more curveballs. Batters are only hitting .200 against it, though, so it appears to be working so far.

According to Pitch f/x, Porcello hasn't thrown any sliders in 2013. This is how his slider performed in 2012:

2012 16.0% Total
39.5%
In Zone
60.5%
Out Zone
33.1%
Non-Swing
66.9%
Swing
69.2%
Non-Swing
30.8%
Swing
45.0%
Total Swing
12.6%
Non-Contact
87.4%
Contact
45.2%
Non-Contact
54.8%
Contact
73.9%
Total Contact

Hitters hit .394 against Porcello's slider last year, so there's a reason why he ditched it.
There isn't really any real conclusion from this due to the small sample size, but it looks like the sinker is the main problem and it shows as hitters are hitting .552 against it so far this year. A lot of that is probably due to his performance on Saturday, but that could be attributed to being unlucky.

One thing that is painfully obvious is that Porcello doesn't have an out pitch; something to where a batter will swing and miss at when he gets 2 strikes. It looks like his curveball won't be that pitch since literally every time they swing at it, they make contact. Like I mentioned earlier, Porcello has never been a strikeout pitcher and relies on contact, mainly ground balls, to get outs. When he has a performance like the one on Saturday, he can't buckle down and get a strikeout when he needs to.

I may revisit these numbers when we get a bigger sample later in the year.