Tuesday, March 24, 2015

2015 Preseason Prediction #11 - Alex Avila

If there's one word to describe Alex Avila, it is "concussion."  For the last few years, Avila has endured many concussion and concussion-like symptoms that have certainly hampered his offensive performance:


Year BABIP AVG ISO BB% K% wOBA wRC+
2011
0.366
0.295
0.211
13.2%
23.8%
0.384
140
2012
0.313
0.243
0.142
14.1%
24.0%
0.327
104
2013
0.305
0.227
0.148
11.6%
29.6%
0.310
92
2014
0.322
0.218
0.141
13.3%
33.0%
0.311
97

Avila's All-Star 2011 season turned out to be unsustainable, which was predictable given his high BABIP.  Two stats that have been remarkably consistent over the last few years are his walk rates (which have led to a decent OBP, even with a poor batting average) and his ISO (after his unsustainable .211 ISO in 2011, it's been in the .140's over the last 3 years).  His strikeout rate has been increasing at an alarming rate, which has caused his batting average to drop.  It does make me wonder what his stats would look like had Avila not suffered so many concussions.  

Another reason why Avila's stats are as poor as they are is because his numbers against left-handed pitching is terrible.  Being a left-handed batter, it makes sense that his numbers against southpaws will not be as good as against right-handed pitchers.  However, his stats show that he shouldn't get any playing time against southpaws:

2012-14 AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+
Vs. LHP
0.185
0.275
0.259
10.1%
33.9%
0.249
51
Vs. RHP
0.244
0.351
0.410
14.0%
27.3%
0.338
112

Alex Avila probably got more playing time that he deserved last year, mainly because his backup, Bryan Holaday was even worse against left-handed pitchers (.151/.188/.192, -1 wRC+).  Yes, that's a negative wRC+.  The good news this year is that James McCann is expected to be Avila's backup this year, who absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching in AAA last year (.336/.396/.469).  If there is a strict platoon, then this should help Avila's rate numbers.  However, it's very hard to predict a bench player's playing time.  A lot depends on the health of the regular player and both player's performance.  Who knows how long it'll take for McCann's numbers to translate against ML pitcher, if ever?  Or McCann could hit right out of the gate and become the regular by the All-Star break.  

This is a contract year for Alex Avila.  Whether or not that'll motivate Avila to perform better than he has is a debate that'll last until the end of time.  One thing that this could mean though, is that this might be the last year that Avila sees regular playing time at the catching position.  


Experts' Projections/Predictions:


AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
Steamer
316
0.230
0.329
0.374
9
37
2
46
108
CAIRO
406
0.231
0.331
0.377
12
46
1
57
133
ZiPS
388
0.229
0.333
0.379
12
53
1
60
138
RotoChamp
369
0.225
0.329
0.369
11
47
0
56
134
CBS Sports
375
0.224
0.322
0.384
12
45
1
54
134
ESPN
343
0.219
0.320
0.359
10
41
0
50
124
MLB.com
370
0.227
0.324
0.373
11
40
1
-
-
FanGraphs' Fans (14)
386
0.231
0.333
0.360
10
48
0
59
127

My Prediction:


AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
2014 Prediction
342
0.246
0.342
0.409
12
50
1
50
102
2014 Actual
390
0.218
0.327
0.359
11
47
0
61
151
2015 Prediction
366
0.224
0.333
0.372
11
46
0
59
133

Fantasy Impact:  Alex Avila is a non-factor on draft day and probably isn't worth a look on the waiver wire.  Mock Draft Central doesn't even have him listed after 347 picks.  A lot has to do with his poor performance, but also his playing time.  James McCann is expected to see a lot of playing time in anticipation of taking over catching duties full-time in 2016.  

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