2015 Preseason Prediction #11 - Alex Avila

If there's one word to describe Alex Avila, it is "concussion."  For the last few years, Avila has endured many concussion and concussion-like symptoms that have certainly hampered his offensive performance:

Year	BABIP	AVG	ISO	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2011	0.366	0.295	0.211	13.2%	23.8%	0.384	140
2012	0.313	0.243	0.142	14.1%	24.0%	0.327	104
2013	0.305	0.227	0.148	11.6%	29.6%	0.310	92
2014	0.322	0.218	0.141	13.3%	33.0%	0.311	97

Avila's All-Star 2011 season turned out to be unsustainable, which was predictable given his high BABIP.  Two stats that have been remarkably consistent over the last few years are his walk rates (which have led to a decent OBP, even with a poor batting average) and his ISO (after his unsustainable .211 ISO in 2011, it's been in the .140's over the last 3 years).  His strikeout rate has been increasing at an alarming rate, which has caused his batting average to drop.  It does make me wonder what his stats would look like had Avila not suffered so many concussions.  

Another reason why Avila's stats are as poor as they are is because his numbers against left-handed pitching is terrible.  Being a left-handed batter, it makes sense that his numbers against southpaws will not be as good as against right-handed pitchers.  However, his stats show that he shouldn't get any playing time against southpaws:

2012-14	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Vs. LHP	0.185	0.275	0.259	10.1%	33.9%	0.249	51
Vs. RHP	0.244	0.351	0.410	14.0%	27.3%	0.338	112

Alex Avila probably got more playing time that he deserved last year, mainly because his backup, Bryan Holaday was even worse against left-handed pitchers (.151/.188/.192, -1 wRC+).  Yes, that's a negative wRC+.  The good news this year is that James McCann is expected to be Avila's backup this year, who absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching in AAA last year (.336/.396/.469).  If there is a strict platoon, then this should help Avila's rate numbers.  However, it's very hard to predict a bench player's playing time.  A lot depends on the health of the regular player and both player's performance.  Who knows how long it'll take for McCann's numbers to translate against ML pitcher, if ever?  Or McCann could hit right out of the gate and become the regular by the All-Star break.  

This is a contract year for Alex Avila.  Whether or not that'll motivate Avila to perform better than he has is a debate that'll last until the end of time.  One thing that this could mean though, is that this might be the last year that Avila sees regular playing time at the catching position.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	316	0.230	0.329	0.374	9	37	2	46	108
CAIRO	406	0.231	0.331	0.377	12	46	1	57	133
ZiPS	388	0.229	0.333	0.379	12	53	1	60	138
RotoChamp	369	0.225	0.329	0.369	11	47	0	56	134
CBS Sports	375	0.224	0.322	0.384	12	45	1	54	134
ESPN	343	0.219	0.320	0.359	10	41	0	50	124
MLB.com	370	0.227	0.324	0.373	11	40	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (14)	386	0.231	0.333	0.360	10	48	0	59	127

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	342	0.246	0.342	0.409	12	50	1	50	102
2014 Actual	390	0.218	0.327	0.359	11	47	0	61	151
2015 Prediction	366	0.224	0.333	0.372	11	46	0	59	133

Fantasy Impact:  Alex Avila is a non-factor on draft day and probably isn't worth a look on the waiver wire.  Mock Draft Central doesn't even have him listed after 347 picks.  A lot has to do with his poor performance, but also his playing time.  James McCann is expected to see a lot of playing time in anticipation of taking over catching duties full-time in 2016.