| Year | BABIP | AVG | ISO | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.366
|
0.295
|
0.211
|
13.2%
|
23.8%
|
0.384
|
140
|
2012
|
0.313
|
0.243
|
0.142
|
14.1%
|
24.0%
|
0.327
|
104
|
2013
|
0.305
|
0.227
|
0.148
|
11.6%
|
29.6%
|
0.310
|
92
|
2014
|
0.322
|
0.218
|
0.141
|
13.3%
|
33.0%
|
0.311
|
97
|
Avila's All-Star 2011 season turned out to be unsustainable, which was predictable given his high BABIP. Two stats that have been remarkably consistent over the last few years are his walk rates (which have led to a decent OBP, even with a poor batting average) and his ISO (after his unsustainable .211 ISO in 2011, it's been in the .140's over the last 3 years). His strikeout rate has been increasing at an alarming rate, which has caused his batting average to drop. It does make me wonder what his stats would look like had Avila not suffered so many concussions.
Another reason why Avila's stats are as poor as they are is because his numbers against left-handed pitching is terrible. Being a left-handed batter, it makes sense that his numbers against southpaws will not be as good as against right-handed pitchers. However, his stats show that he shouldn't get any playing time against southpaws:
| 2012-14 | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vs. LHP
|
0.185
|
0.275
|
0.259
|
10.1%
|
33.9%
|
0.249
|
51
|
Vs. RHP
|
0.244
|
0.351
|
0.410
|
14.0%
|
27.3%
|
0.338
|
112
|
Alex Avila probably got more playing time that he deserved last year, mainly because his backup, Bryan Holaday was even worse against left-handed pitchers (.151/.188/.192, -1 wRC+). Yes, that's a negative wRC+. The good news this year is that James McCann is expected to be Avila's backup this year, who absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching in AAA last year (.336/.396/.469). If there is a strict platoon, then this should help Avila's rate numbers. However, it's very hard to predict a bench player's playing time. A lot depends on the health of the regular player and both player's performance. Who knows how long it'll take for McCann's numbers to translate against ML pitcher, if ever? Or McCann could hit right out of the gate and become the regular by the All-Star break.
This is a contract year for Alex Avila. Whether or not that'll motivate Avila to perform better than he has is a debate that'll last until the end of time. One thing that this could mean though, is that this might be the last year that Avila sees regular playing time at the catching position.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
316
|
0.230
|
0.329
|
0.374
|
9
|
37
|
2
|
46
|
108
|
CAIRO
|
406
|
0.231
|
0.331
|
0.377
|
12
|
46
|
1
|
57
|
133
|
ZiPS
|
388
|
0.229
|
0.333
|
0.379
|
12
|
53
|
1
|
60
|
138
|
RotoChamp
|
369
|
0.225
|
0.329
|
0.369
|
11
|
47
|
0
|
56
|
134
|
CBS Sports
|
375
|
0.224
|
0.322
|
0.384
|
12
|
45
|
1
|
54
|
134
|
ESPN
|
343
|
0.219
|
0.320
|
0.359
|
10
|
41
|
0
|
50
|
124
|
MLB.com
|
370
|
0.227
|
0.324
|
0.373
|
11
|
40
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs' Fans (14)
|
386
|
0.231
|
0.333
|
0.360
|
10
|
48
|
0
|
59
|
127
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
342
|
0.246
|
0.342
|
0.409
|
12
|
50
|
1
|
50
|
102
|
2014 Actual
|
390
|
0.218
|
0.327
|
0.359
|
11
|
47
|
0
|
61
|
151
|
2015 Prediction
|
366
|
0.224
|
0.333
|
0.372
|
11
|
46
|
0
|
59
|
133
|
Fantasy Impact: Alex Avila is a non-factor on draft day and probably isn't worth a look on the waiver wire. Mock Draft Central doesn't even have him listed after 347 picks. A lot has to do with his poor performance, but also his playing time. James McCann is expected to see a lot of playing time in anticipation of taking over catching duties full-time in 2016.
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