2014
|
AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st Half
|
0.303
|
0.337
|
0.470
|
0.353
|
125
|
2nd Half
|
0.239
|
0.270
|
0.357
|
0.276
|
72
|
Kinsler is entering his age 33 season, a time where a player starts to see a decline. It might be a good idea to start giving him days off in the hopes that he doesn't tire out in the second half and be more consistent.
Another split that Tiger fans were worried about was Kinsler's home/away splits. Before the Tigers acquired him, Kinsler was playing half his games in hitter-friendly Arlington (whatever they are calling that stadium these days) and his splits showed he might have a hard time hitting away from that ballpark:
| 2006-2013 | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home
|
0.304
|
0.387
|
0.511
|
0.389
|
132
|
Away
|
0.242
|
0.312
|
0.399
|
0.313
|
91
|
Kinsler's actual 2014 home/away splits were:
2014
|
AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home
|
0.265
|
0.310
|
0.409
|
0.317
|
98
|
Away
|
0.284
|
0.305
|
0.430
|
0.321
|
106
|
Kinsler's stats were indeed better away from Comerica than at home. And while there is only a wRC+ difference of 7 between his 2006-13 away and his 2014 home stats, there is the age factor to consider. In fact, comparing Kinsler's 2014 season to just a season ago, there isn't that much of a difference:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013
|
0.277
|
0.344
|
0.413
|
0.334
|
105
|
2014
|
0.275
|
0.307
|
0.420
|
0.319
|
102
|
The biggest difference is the OBP. Kinsler's walk rate has always been good, between around 8% to 12% while he was with Texas, but it was only 4% in his first year with the Tigers. If Torii Hunter is any indication, once a player lowers his walk rate late his career, he never regains it, which doesn't bode well for Ian Kinsler.
Looking at his Pitch f/x plate discipline stats, it's easy to see where his problem lies:
| Year | O-Swing% | O-Contact% |
|---|---|---|
2012
|
24.5%
|
71.5%
|
2013
|
22.8%
|
74.3%
|
2014
|
30.1%
|
75.8%
|
Kinsler is swinging a lot more out of the strike zone without increasing his out of zone contact that much. Therefore, he's swinging at at lot of pitches that he used to take for balls, and of course taking balls lead to walks. He'll need to get his O-Swing% back to the low to mid-20% range if he is to get his walk rate back to where it once was. It'll be interesting to see if he can do what Torii Hunter was unable to do.
Experts' Prediction/Projection:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
610
|
0.265
|
0.320
|
0.411
|
16
|
67
|
14
|
44
|
74
|
CAIRO
|
628
|
0.264
|
0.319
|
0.406
|
15
|
93
|
16
|
43
|
82
|
ZiPS
|
615
|
0.272
|
0.326
|
0.415
|
15
|
76
|
15
|
45
|
72
|
RotoChamp
|
568
|
0.273
|
0.318
|
0.410
|
14
|
75
|
14
|
34
|
66
|
CBS Sports
|
670
|
0.267
|
0.303
|
0.403
|
15
|
81
|
13
|
34
|
79
|
ESPN
|
623
|
0.276
|
0.323
|
0.427
|
16
|
77
|
14
|
39
|
73
|
MLB.com
|
625
|
0.266
|
0.306
|
0.419
|
16
|
78
|
15
|
- | - |
FanGraphs' Fans (25)
|
626
|
0.268
|
0.322
|
0.409
|
16
|
65
|
15
|
44
|
73
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
595
|
0.266
|
0.335
|
0.425
|
18
|
70
|
17
|
57
|
66
|
2014 Actual
|
684
|
0.275
|
0.307
|
0.420
|
17
|
92
|
15
|
29
|
79
|
2015 Prediction
|
621
|
0.267
|
0.315
|
0.417
|
16
|
69
|
14
|
41
|
78
|
Fantasy Impact: 7 second basemen had double digits in both home runs and stolen bases last year. 4 of them also had a batting average of .250 or better, Kinsler included. If Kinsler can reach those numbers again this year, he could be a top 5 fantasy 2B again. Mock Draft Central currently has him going in the middle of the 4th round in a standard 12-team league. That may be a couple of rounds too soon. Remember, Kinsler is entering his decline, so it may be wiser to go younger/more upside at 2B.
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