Thursday, March 12, 2015

2015 Preseason Prediction #6 - Ian Kinsler

Ian Kinsler had a career high in games played and while it wasn't a career high, he led the league in plate appearances (5 short of his career high).  The amount of playing time could have been a factor in why his first half stats were so much better than his second half stats; he just simply got burned out.


2014
AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
1st Half
0.303
0.337
0.470
0.353
125
2nd Half
0.239
0.270
0.357
0.276
72

Kinsler is entering his age 33 season, a time where a player starts to see a decline.  It might be a good idea to start giving him days off in the hopes that he doesn't tire out in the second half and be more consistent.  

Another split that Tiger fans were worried about was Kinsler's home/away splits.  Before the Tigers acquired him, Kinsler was playing half his games in hitter-friendly Arlington (whatever they are calling that stadium these days) and his splits showed he might have a hard time hitting away from that ballpark:

2006-2013 AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Home
0.304
0.387
0.511
0.389
132
Away
0.242
0.312
0.399
0.313
91

Kinsler's actual 2014 home/away splits were:

2014
AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Home
0.265
0.310
0.409
0.317
98
Away
0.284
0.305
0.430
0.321
106

Kinsler's stats were indeed better away from Comerica than at home.  And while there is only a wRC+ difference of 7 between his 2006-13 away and his 2014 home stats, there is the age factor to consider.  In fact, comparing Kinsler's 2014 season to just a season ago, there isn't that much of a difference:

Year AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2013
0.277
0.344
0.413
0.334
105
2014
0.275
0.307
0.420
0.319
102

The biggest difference is the OBP.  Kinsler's walk rate has always been good, between around 8% to 12% while he was with Texas, but it was only 4% in his first year with the Tigers.  If Torii Hunter is any indication, once a player lowers his walk rate late his career, he never regains it, which doesn't bode well for Ian Kinsler.

Looking at his Pitch f/x plate discipline stats, it's easy to see where his problem lies:

Year O-Swing% O-Contact%
2012
24.5%
71.5%
2013
22.8%
74.3%
2014
30.1%
75.8%
 
Kinsler is swinging a lot more out of the strike zone without increasing his out of zone contact that much.  Therefore, he's swinging at at lot of pitches that he used to take for balls, and of course taking balls lead to walks.  He'll need to get his O-Swing% back to the low to mid-20% range if he is to get his walk rate back to where it once was.  It'll be interesting to see if he can do what Torii Hunter was unable to do.

Experts' Prediction/Projection:

AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
Steamer
610
0.265
0.320
0.411
16
67
14
44
74
CAIRO
628
0.264
0.319
0.406
15
93
16
43
82
ZiPS
615
0.272
0.326
0.415
15
76
15
45
72
RotoChamp
568
0.273
0.318
0.410
14
75
14
34
66
CBS Sports
670
0.267
0.303
0.403
15
81
13
34
79
ESPN
623
0.276
0.323
0.427
16
77
14
39
73
MLB.com
625
0.266
0.306
0.419
16
78
15
- -
FanGraphs' Fans (25)
626
0.268
0.322
0.409
16
65
15
44
73

My Prediction:


AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
2014 Prediction
595
0.266
0.335
0.425
18
70
17
57
66
2014 Actual
684
0.275
0.307
0.420
17
92
15
29
79
2015 Prediction
621
0.267
0.315
0.417
16
69
14
41
78

Fantasy Impact: 7 second basemen had double digits in both home runs and stolen bases last year.  4 of them also had a batting average of .250 or better, Kinsler included.  If Kinsler can reach those numbers again this year, he could be a top 5 fantasy 2B again.  Mock Draft Central currently has him going in the middle of the 4th round in a standard 12-team league.  That may be a couple of rounds too soon.  Remember, Kinsler is entering his decline, so it may be wiser to go younger/more upside at 2B.  

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