Ian Kinsler's Power Outage

Ian Kinsler has yet to hit a home run this year.  He is one of 10 regular players to have 0 home runs so far this year.  Last year he hit 17 home runs in 726 plate appearances, or about once every 42.7 plate appearances.  This means that he should already have about 5 home runs this year at that same pace.  The last time Kinsler hit a home run was on the last day of the season in 2014 off of Kyle Gibson in the 3rd inning.  He had 2 more plate appearances after that, therefore he has gone 215 plate appearances without homering.  By my count, this is the longest home run drought by Kinsler; last year Kinsler went 196 plate appearances between homering.  However, the difference is that this time it's not hurting his overall offensive production.

Longest HR drought in Kinsler's career:

Year	Dates between homering	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2015	4/6 - 5/28	213	0.278	0.357	0.364	0.720
2014	7/4 - 8/21	192	0.232	0.258	0.287	0.545
2010	5/19 - 6/25	143	0.264	0.338	0.304	0.642
2008	6/6 - 8/9	140	0.270	0.331	0.357	0.688
2011	4/23 - 5/25	134	0.243	0.333	0.330	0.664
2012	4/25 - 5/26	134	0.287	0.343	0.361	0.704

*May not reflect actual number of plate appearances between homering due to extra plate appearances in homering game.

Kinsler's current home run drought has produced the highest OPS than any of his other home run droughts and is only the 2nd time that it is above .700.  His slugging percentage is also the highest, but the biggest difference is the on-base percentage.  After having a pathetic 4% walk rate last year, it's back up to a very good 11.3% this year.  

This change in approach has not effected his overall offensive contribution; he's still on pace for about the same league adjusted numbers that he put up over the last few seasons:

	wOBA	wRC+
2012	0.327	100
2013	0.334	105
2014	0.319	102
2015	0.322	104

In fact, Kinsler's .720 OPS is only 7 points lower than what he put up all of last year.  

Other than walking more, there are other signs of a change in approach in his stats.  His fly ball percentage is the lowest of his career while his line drive rate is up 3.7 percent from last year.  This could be a conscious effort to strip away the "Captain Pop-Up" nickname as his infield fly ball rate is down from 11.9% last year to 8.5% this year.  Of course less fly balls mean less chances for home runs.  

 Ian Kinsler has always been somewhat of a streaky hitter.  In the 2nd half of last year he only hit .239/.270/.357.  If this current stretch is the down side of his streaky-ness this year, then we can look forward to his numbers when he does start hitting home runs again.    

2015 Preseason Prediction #6 - Ian Kinsler

Ian Kinsler had a career high in games played and while it wasn't a career high, he led the league in plate appearances (5 short of his career high).  The amount of playing time could have been a factor in why his first half stats were so much better than his second half stats; he just simply got burned out.

2014	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
1st Half	0.303	0.337	0.470	0.353	125
2nd Half	0.239	0.270	0.357	0.276	72

Kinsler is entering his age 33 season, a time where a player starts to see a decline.  It might be a good idea to start giving him days off in the hopes that he doesn't tire out in the second half and be more consistent.  

Another split that Tiger fans were worried about was Kinsler's home/away splits.  Before the Tigers acquired him, Kinsler was playing half his games in hitter-friendly Arlington (whatever they are calling that stadium these days) and his splits showed he might have a hard time hitting away from that ballpark:

2006-2013	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Home	0.304	0.387	0.511	0.389	132
Away	0.242	0.312	0.399	0.313	91

Kinsler's actual 2014 home/away splits were:

2014	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Home	0.265	0.310	0.409	0.317	98
Away	0.284	0.305	0.430	0.321	106

Kinsler's stats were indeed better away from Comerica than at home.  And while there is only a wRC+ difference of 7 between his 2006-13 away and his 2014 home stats, there is the age factor to consider.  In fact, comparing Kinsler's 2014 season to just a season ago, there isn't that much of a difference:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2013	0.277	0.344	0.413	0.334	105
2014	0.275	0.307	0.420	0.319	102

The biggest difference is the OBP.  Kinsler's walk rate has always been good, between around 8% to 12% while he was with Texas, but it was only 4% in his first year with the Tigers.  If Torii Hunter is any indication, once a player lowers his walk rate late his career, he never regains it, which doesn't bode well for Ian Kinsler.

Looking at his Pitch f/x plate discipline stats, it's easy to see where his problem lies:

Year	O-Swing%	O-Contact%
2012	24.5%	71.5%
2013	22.8%	74.3%
2014	30.1%	75.8%

 

Kinsler is swinging a lot more out of the strike zone without increasing his out of zone contact that much.  Therefore, he's swinging at at lot of pitches that he used to take for balls, and of course taking balls lead to walks.  He'll need to get his O-Swing% back to the low to mid-20% range if he is to get his walk rate back to where it once was.  It'll be interesting to see if he can do what Torii Hunter was unable to do.

Experts' Prediction/Projection:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	610	0.265	0.320	0.411	16	67	14	44	74
CAIRO	628	0.264	0.319	0.406	15	93	16	43	82
ZiPS	615	0.272	0.326	0.415	15	76	15	45	72
RotoChamp	568	0.273	0.318	0.410	14	75	14	34	66
CBS Sports	670	0.267	0.303	0.403	15	81	13	34	79
ESPN	623	0.276	0.323	0.427	16	77	14	39	73
MLB.com	625	0.266	0.306	0.419	16	78	15	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (25)	626	0.268	0.322	0.409	16	65	15	44	73

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	595	0.266	0.335	0.425	18	70	17	57	66
2014 Actual	684	0.275	0.307	0.420	17	92	15	29	79
2015 Prediction	621	0.267	0.315	0.417	16	69	14	41	78

Fantasy Impact: 7 second basemen had double digits in both home runs and stolen bases last year.  4 of them also had a batting average of .250 or better, Kinsler included.  If Kinsler can reach those numbers again this year, he could be a top 5 fantasy 2B again.  Mock Draft Central currently has him going in the middle of the 4th round in a standard 12-team league.  That may be a couple of rounds too soon.  Remember, Kinsler is entering his decline, so it may be wiser to go younger/more upside at 2B.  

Batting Order for 2015 - J.D. Should Bat 2nd

The bigger off-season moves for the Tigers seem to be done, with Max Scherzer returning the only thing left undecided (and I give that move about a 50/50 chance of actually happening).  The Tigers have resigned Victor Martinez to be their DH again; Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are all returning.  There will be some form of a platoon with Rajai Davis and newcomer Anthony Gose in CF while another potential platoon will happen at catcher with Alex Avila and prospect James McCann.  Jose Iglesias is (hopefully) finally healthy and will be the primary shortstop, like the Tigers envisioned when they gave up Avisail Garcia at the 2013 trade deadline.  Yoenis Cespedes is the big off-season acquisition bat and will be replacing Torii Hunter in the OF (although it's likely Cespedes will be playing LF and J.D. will be moving to RF).  

So what will the lineup look like?  A few things are set in stone, Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart will bat 3rd and 4th.  J.D. Martinez and Cespedes will be also be in the middle of the order (with one of them possibly batting 2nd).  Kinsler and/or Davis will likely be at the top and Iglesias will be at the bottom.  But what do the numbers say?  Since the Tigers are going to platoon at least 2 positions, I think there should be two distinct batting orders: one against righties and one against lefties.  

Vs. RHP:
2B Ian Kinsler (.273/.305/.417)
RF J.D. Martinez (.318/.357/.523)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.317/.373/.520)
DH Victor Martinez (.323/.402/.522)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.279/.311/.466)
3B Nick Castellanos (.266/.301/.401)
C Alex Avila (.215/.340/.380)
CF Anthony Gose (.238/.329/.312)
SS Jose Iglesias (.308/.354/.362*)

*All numbers are 2014 splits against RHP except for Iglesias, who missed all of the 2014 season.  So his splits are from 2013.  

The Tigers don't have a clear lead-off hitter here.  After placing Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, J.D. has the highest OBP remaining.  However, he's lacking the speed that a true lead-off hitter possesses and he has home run power that better suits the #2 position.  Avila has a high OBP, but again lacks speed.  Gose has a respectable OBP, but lacks experience.  Iglesias also has good numbers here, but it comes from a likely inflated BABIP and his numbers are surely going to drop after missing a whole year.  Therefore, Kinsler is the lead-off hitter by default.  Hopefully he's able to get his BB% back closer to his 8.9% career mark instead of the puny 4.0% he put up last year.  


Vs. LHP:
CF Rajai Davis (.356/.382/.557)
RF J.D. Martinez (.307/.362/.640)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.301/.364/.536)
DH Victor Martinez (.371/.430/.692)
2B Ian Kinsler (.281/.313/.427)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.199/.269/.397)
3B Nick Castellanos (.237/.319/.374)
C James McCann (.336/.396/.469*)
SS Jose Iglesias (.294/.341/.429*)

*Again, Iglesias' splits are from 2013 and James McCann's splits are from AAA.  Everyone else's splits are from the 2014 season.

The Tigers should have a much more potent lineup against LHP.  Davis has dramatic lefty/right splits, but his lefty splits are good enough that he should be leading off.  Martinez had consistent splits vs. lefties and righties in 2014, so hopefully he's able to carry that over for 2015.  V-Mart will likely not be able to duplicate his breakout year again, but should provide enough offense for the cleanup spot.  Cespedes had unusual number against LHP in 2014, but if he's able to revert back to career norms, then he should bat 5th instead of 6th.  James McCann had great numbers vs. lefites in AAA and will provide a perfect platoon for Avila, who hits righties well enough.  Again, Iglesias benefited from an inflated BABIP in 2014 and won't be able to hit this well after missing a whole year.

Brad Ausmus may want to go with a more consistent lineup.  Davis/Gose platoon might see the bulk share of games at lead-off with Ian Kinsler batting 2nd.  Martinez and Cespedes will then bat 5th and 6th respectively and then the bottom of the order consisting of Castellanos, Avila and Iglesias.  Or he might put DavisGose at the #9 spot for the "second lead-off position" (which I don't particularly agree with).  

One thing that I hoping for is J.D. Martinez batting 2nd.  It's the next natural position to place a Tigers hitter after Cabrera and V-Mart 3rd and 4th.  And going by "The Book," it's a much more important spot than previously assumed.  Ausmus may be inclined to put Cespedes there, but he just doesn't have the OBP that fits that position.  If J.D. Martinez is the real deal (and I think he is) then he needs to batting 2nd for the Tigers.  

2014 Preseason Prediction #5 - Ian Kinsler

The biggest move the Tigers made during the off-season was trading Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler.  The Tigers decided to trade power for speed and defense.  They traded a position of depth for a position of need.  This move allowed the Tigers to move Miguel Cabrera back to 1B and fill 3B with rookie Nick Castellanos.  However, it's always hard to figure out how a player will adjust to a new ballpark, especially one with extreme home/away splits like Ian Kinsler:

Home	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	0.296	0.405	0.528
2012	0.293	0.361	0.524
2013	0.292	0.371	0.408
Career	0.282	0.363	0.473

Away	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	0.214	0.302	0.428
2012	0.220	0.290	0.321
2013	0.263	0.317	0.418
Career	0.260	0.332	0.430

Mr. Pop-up might be an accurate description for Mr. Kinsler.  He has 90 infield fly balls since 2011, tied at 2nd most with Jimmy Rollins.  Only Mike Moustakas has more in the last 3 years with 93.  Over the last 2 years, his IFFB% is at 14.3%, 10th highest in baseball.  Kinsler is going to have to change his approach if he wants to be successful at Comerica Park.  He's going to have to focus on hitting line drives instead of fly balls in the hopes of hitting home runs.  Brad Ausmus has been hitting him lead-off most of Spring Training.  If he does becomes the everyday lead-off hitter during the regular season, this might just give him the mindset to focus on getting on base instead of trying for the long ball.  There is some good news in that his line drive rate has increased over the last few years:

Baseball-Reference	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	15.8%	48.2%	36.1%
2012	18.9%	37.8%	43.3%
2013	27.6%	37.5%	34.9%

FanGraphs	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	17.6%	35.3%	47.1%
2012	20.1%	37.6%	42.2%
2013	23.7%	36.9%	39.4%

Another thing to keep in mind is that Kinsler is going to be 32 years old this year, an age of where a player is typically ending his prime years.  I think there are going to be times this year where Kinsler will struggle, but end the season strong as he gets used to hitting at Comerica.  I'm going to be optimistic in my prediction, so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't reach these numbers.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	596	0.261	0.337	0.426	19	71	19	62	73
Oliver	535	0.273	0.338	0.406	12	63	15	49	58
ZiPS	557	0.271	0.344	0.420	15	68	16	57	69
RotoChamp	559	0.267	0.342	0.426	17	62	17	-	-
CBS Sports	645	0.264	0.335	0.417	18	68	14	69	76
ESPN	614	0.275	0.344	0.433	17	74	21	59	71
MLB.com	560	0.263	0.331	0.414	15	79	20	-	-
FanGraphs'  Fans (20)	601	0.270	0.339	0.411	15	67	20	57	69

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	545	0.277	0.344	0.413	13	72	15	51	59
2014 Prediction	595	0.266	0.335	0.425	18	70	17	57	66

Fantasy Impact: Second base is a weak position.  Kinsler gives you double digits in HR and SB while not killing you in batting average.  For this reason, Kinsler has been going early in drafts, around 5th or 6th round.  If you can get Kinsler there, that's good value.