2015 Preseason Prediction #15 - Jose Iglesias

Jose Iglesias was acquired by the Red Sox in a three-way deal that sent Avisail Garcia to the White Sox back in 2013.  His numbers for the Tigers were overall down from what he did with the Sox that year:

2013	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
Red Sox	0.330	0.376	0.409	4.7%	12.8%	116
Tigers	0.259	0.306	0.348	2.7%	20.3%	80

The high batting average can be attributed to a high BABIP with the Red Sox (.376).  When that stabilized to a more normal .320 BABIP with the Tigers, his batting average took a nosedive.  But what's really worrisome is that his already low walk rate declined even further and his strikeout rate spiked up.  The good news is that his walk rate in the minors was 5.7% and even better at the AAA level, 6.2%, so the 2.7% mark doesn't look like his norm.  Same is true with his strikeout rate, which was only at 14.4% in the minors.  

Now comes the bad news. Jose Iglesias missed the entire 2014 season due to stress fractures in both of his shins.  Players who miss an entire season usually do not come back strong, at least not right away.  Victor Martinez only hit .258/.314/.380 in the first half of the 2013 season after he missed all of the 2012 season.  Now factor in that Jose Iglesias isn't on the same level of talent as Victor Martinez.  

No, a better comparison would be Stephen Drew.  While he didn't miss a full year, he did miss 2 months of the 2014 season and then proceeded to hit .162/.237/.299 for the remainder of the season.  His missed time wasn't due to an injury, but a compensation draft pick attached to his signing that no team wanted to give up.  

Iglesias has always been a fielding first player.  His AAA slash line was .244/.296/.292 in over 900 PA.  His time spent with the Red Sox in 2013 shouldn't be considered as it was far and away from his true talent level.  Now factor in his time spent on the DL and an injury which could be nagging all year long and...well, I don't foresee a breakout year from Iglesias this year.  Normally I don't look at Spring Training stats, but the fact that he's hitting only .105/.150/.132 in 40 ST PA doesn't help my confidence in him. 

Tiger shortstops hit a combined .226/.288/.293 in 2014.  I'm not convinced that Jose Iglesias will be able to do much better than that.  


Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	400	0.256	0.300	0.339	4	38	10	20	60
CAIRO	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
ZiPS	379	0.253	0.298	0.311	3	30	9	19	62
RotoChamp	350	0.266	0.315	0.343	3	28	5	15	61
CBS Sports	500	0.270	0.303	0.348	4	38	10	24	76
ESPN	478	0.251	0.301	0.322	5	36	11	26	74
MLB.com	475	0.263	0.303	0.354	5	40	7	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (6)	467	0.257	0.301	0.338	4	41	9	23	93

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2015 Prediction	389	0.226	0.270	0.296	2	24	5	15	76

Fantasy Impact: Jose Iglesias isn't going to hit for a high average, hit for a lot of power or steal a lot of bases. Unless your league uses defense categories, Iglesias is absolutely useless in fantasy leagues.  

Batting Order for 2015 - J.D. Should Bat 2nd

The bigger off-season moves for the Tigers seem to be done, with Max Scherzer returning the only thing left undecided (and I give that move about a 50/50 chance of actually happening).  The Tigers have resigned Victor Martinez to be their DH again; Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are all returning.  There will be some form of a platoon with Rajai Davis and newcomer Anthony Gose in CF while another potential platoon will happen at catcher with Alex Avila and prospect James McCann.  Jose Iglesias is (hopefully) finally healthy and will be the primary shortstop, like the Tigers envisioned when they gave up Avisail Garcia at the 2013 trade deadline.  Yoenis Cespedes is the big off-season acquisition bat and will be replacing Torii Hunter in the OF (although it's likely Cespedes will be playing LF and J.D. will be moving to RF).  

So what will the lineup look like?  A few things are set in stone, Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart will bat 3rd and 4th.  J.D. Martinez and Cespedes will be also be in the middle of the order (with one of them possibly batting 2nd).  Kinsler and/or Davis will likely be at the top and Iglesias will be at the bottom.  But what do the numbers say?  Since the Tigers are going to platoon at least 2 positions, I think there should be two distinct batting orders: one against righties and one against lefties.  

Vs. RHP:
2B Ian Kinsler (.273/.305/.417)
RF J.D. Martinez (.318/.357/.523)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.317/.373/.520)
DH Victor Martinez (.323/.402/.522)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.279/.311/.466)
3B Nick Castellanos (.266/.301/.401)
C Alex Avila (.215/.340/.380)
CF Anthony Gose (.238/.329/.312)
SS Jose Iglesias (.308/.354/.362*)

*All numbers are 2014 splits against RHP except for Iglesias, who missed all of the 2014 season.  So his splits are from 2013.  

The Tigers don't have a clear lead-off hitter here.  After placing Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, J.D. has the highest OBP remaining.  However, he's lacking the speed that a true lead-off hitter possesses and he has home run power that better suits the #2 position.  Avila has a high OBP, but again lacks speed.  Gose has a respectable OBP, but lacks experience.  Iglesias also has good numbers here, but it comes from a likely inflated BABIP and his numbers are surely going to drop after missing a whole year.  Therefore, Kinsler is the lead-off hitter by default.  Hopefully he's able to get his BB% back closer to his 8.9% career mark instead of the puny 4.0% he put up last year.  


Vs. LHP:
CF Rajai Davis (.356/.382/.557)
RF J.D. Martinez (.307/.362/.640)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.301/.364/.536)
DH Victor Martinez (.371/.430/.692)
2B Ian Kinsler (.281/.313/.427)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.199/.269/.397)
3B Nick Castellanos (.237/.319/.374)
C James McCann (.336/.396/.469*)
SS Jose Iglesias (.294/.341/.429*)

*Again, Iglesias' splits are from 2013 and James McCann's splits are from AAA.  Everyone else's splits are from the 2014 season.

The Tigers should have a much more potent lineup against LHP.  Davis has dramatic lefty/right splits, but his lefty splits are good enough that he should be leading off.  Martinez had consistent splits vs. lefties and righties in 2014, so hopefully he's able to carry that over for 2015.  V-Mart will likely not be able to duplicate his breakout year again, but should provide enough offense for the cleanup spot.  Cespedes had unusual number against LHP in 2014, but if he's able to revert back to career norms, then he should bat 5th instead of 6th.  James McCann had great numbers vs. lefites in AAA and will provide a perfect platoon for Avila, who hits righties well enough.  Again, Iglesias benefited from an inflated BABIP in 2014 and won't be able to hit this well after missing a whole year.

Brad Ausmus may want to go with a more consistent lineup.  Davis/Gose platoon might see the bulk share of games at lead-off with Ian Kinsler batting 2nd.  Martinez and Cespedes will then bat 5th and 6th respectively and then the bottom of the order consisting of Castellanos, Avila and Iglesias.  Or he might put DavisGose at the #9 spot for the "second lead-off position" (which I don't particularly agree with).  

One thing that I hoping for is J.D. Martinez batting 2nd.  It's the next natural position to place a Tigers hitter after Cabrera and V-Mart 3rd and 4th.  And going by "The Book," it's a much more important spot than previously assumed.  Ausmus may be inclined to put Cespedes there, but he just doesn't have the OBP that fits that position.  If J.D. Martinez is the real deal (and I think he is) then he needs to batting 2nd for the Tigers.  

What Should the 2014 Tigers Lineup Look Like?

A few days ago, Lynn Henning gave his opening day lineup:

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Andy Dirks, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Alex Avila, C
6. Austin Jackson, CF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Torii Hunter, RF
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

He also stipulated that Rajai Davis will likely play against left-handed pitching and either bat 2nd or Torii Hunter will move up and bat 2nd.  He has some odd choices, like Austin Jackson suddenly being a power threat because he's going to turn 27 or Alex Avila is suddenly going to be a .300 AVG/.500 OPS hitter because...he's going to turn 27.  Both Jackson and Avila have displayed these qualities before.  Jackson had a .179 ISO in 2012 and Avila had a .295 AVG and a .506 SLG in 2011.  However there are some signs that both those years were flukes, such as both had an abnormally high BABIP.  Relying on both to repeat that performance in 2014 is a bit of a stretch.  He also doesn't give much explanation in other spots, like Torii Hunter and number 8 "just seem to fit."  Because that makes sense.

Joshua Mastracci of the sabermetrically-inclined Beyond the Boxscore also gave his Tigers' 2014 lineup:

Against RHP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ian Kinser, 2B
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Andy Dirks, LF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Against LHP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ian Kinser, 2B
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Rajai Davis, LF
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

The big difference here is that he's moving Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez down to 4-5 spots instead of 3-4 and moving Torii Hunter to #3.  Using the same rationale as in The Book, the #3 spot isn't as important as the #4 and #5 spots, so instead of just putting the still useful Hunter in the #5 spot, he's rearranged the order.  It's a better explanation than what Henning used to plop him in the 8th spot at least.  What I disagree the most about his lineup is that he moved Avila up a spot against LHP even though his numbers against them are horrible.  His reasoning is that there needs to be a righty between the lefties Andy Dirks and Avila, but it's not needed when the righty Davis is in the lineup.  

Which brings me to my lineups.

Lefty/righty splits are readily available, so why not use them to determine the batting order?  Especially given that the Tigers are going to platoon at least 1 position (LF) and Dirks and Davis are two totally different hitters so just swapping one for the other in the batting order doesn't make much sense.

I'm using the last 2 years to get a big enough sample size.  

Against RHP:

Player	OBP	ISO
Miguel Cabera	0.400	0.294
Victor Martinez	0.373	0.127
Austin Jackson	0.361	0.159
Alex Avila	0.356	0.167
Andy Dirks	0.346	0.138
Torii Hunter	0.339	0.150
Jose Iglesias	0.328	0.049
Ian Kinsler	0.310	0.145
Rajai Davis	0.283	0.100

Ignoring Nick Castellanos and Bryan Holaday for a second since they don't have big samples, this shows clearly that Davis shouldn't be starting against RHP.  Keeping Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, Jackson and Avila have the next highest OBP, so they should get the top 2 spots against RHP.  This will keep Henning happy since Avila is a left-handed bat, same as Dirks, and he wants to keep a lefty in the #2 spot to take advantage of the hole created between 1B and 2B if the first baseman is holding a runner on 1B.

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 3-4 hitters, the lineup based on these numbers should be:

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Alex Avila, C

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Torii Hunter, RF

6. Andy Dirks, LF

7. Ian Kinsler, 2B

8. Nick Castellanos, 3B

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 4-5 hitters, the lineup should be:

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Alex Avila, C

3. Torii Hunter, RF

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

5. Victor Martinez, DH

6. Andy Dirks, LF

7. Ian Kinsler, 2B

8. Nick Castellanos, 3B

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Against LHP:

Player	OBP	ISO
Miguel Cabrera	0.462	0.247
Ian Kinsler	0.401	0.174
Torii Hunter	0.376	0.153
Rajai Davis	0.362	0.154
Austin Jackson	0.349	0.169
Andy Dirks	0.329	0.107
Victor Martinez	0.324	0.133
Jose Iglesias	0.319	0.135
Alex Avila	0.268	0.073

Again, ignoring Castellanos and Holaday due to small sample sizes, these stats show Cabrera and Kinsler as the top 2 hitters in both OBP and ISO.  I'm willing to discount Kinsler's numbers a little due to hitting in Arlington and I like to keep Cabrera and V-Mart together just for consistency.  Kinsler, Hunter and Davis now have the highest OBP remaining.  I think Kinsler will work better in the middle of the order because of his power and Davis' speed works better at the top of the order.  These stats also show that Avila shouldn't be hitting at all against LHP.  

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 3-4 hitters, the lineup should be:

1. Rajai Davis, LF

2. Torii Hunter, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Ian Kinsler, 2B

6. Austin Jackson, CF

7. Nick Castellanos, 3B

8. Bryan Holaday, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 4-5 hitters, the lineup should be:

1. Rajai Davis, LF

2. Torii Hunter, RF

3. Ian Kinsler, 2B

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

5. Victor Martinez, DH

6. Austin Jackson, CF

7. Nick Castellanos, 3B

8. Bryan Holaday, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

It is likely that rookie manager Brad Ausmus is going to be more consistent than my proposed lineup and be more conventional.  It is also likely that there's is some sort of comfort level among players on where they bat in the order.  However, there is such a big difference in some of these players' splits, that it makes sense to switch it up a bit depending on who's pitching.

What would you like the lineup to look like?   Post yours in the comments.  

The Game Winning RBI

If you were a fan of baseball during the 1980s, you might remember a statistic that is no longer kept, the game winning RBI, or GW RBI.  GW RBI was an official MLB stat from 1980-1988 that recorded the number of RBI a player had that put his team ahead for good.  For example, say the game is tied 2-2 and a batter received an RBI that made it 3-2.  Then his team scored 2 more runs to make it 5-2 and the final score was 5-4.  The batter that drove in the 3rd run gets credit for the GW RBI even though his team needed all 5 runs to win.  With those rules in mind, I resurected this obsolete stat for the 2013 Tigers:

Player	GW RBI
Miguel Cabrera	15
Torii Hunter	15
Prince Fielder	14
Victor Martinez	9
Omar Infante	8
Alex Avila	5
Andy Dirks	4
Jhonny Peralta	3
Don Kelly	3
Brayan Pena	2
Ramon Santiago	2
Austin Jackson	1
Jose Iglesias	1
Max Scherzer	1

Not surprising, Miguel Cabrera tops the list, but his co-leader, Torii Hunter, might be surprising.  Also, despite having 30 RBI, Matt Tuiasosopo doesn't have a single GW RBI, not even when he was hitting .329/.447/.624 in the first half.  

The problem with this stat is similar with the RBI stat in general.  It depends too much on timing and the teammates getting on base.  Even as a "clutch" stat, it has it's weaknesses.  Most of the time, the player wouldn't know that his RBI was the game winning one until after the game unless he had a walk-off hit.  Oftentimes the first RBI became the game winning one and most people wouldn't associate the first few innings as "clutch" innings.  With this in mind, it's easy to see why Torii Hunter had so many GW RBI, being the 2nd batter in the game and having the opportunity to drive in the first run with Austin Jackson on base.  

You might notice that the Tigers have 84 wins, but only 83 GW RBI have been awarded.  This is because of the game on 9/10, the game winning run wasn't an RBI, but rather scored on the result of an error.  Victor Martinez got the first RBI in that game, but his RBI wasn't the "game winning" run as defined by the rules.  This confused me on how to score it, but I ultimately gave no one the GW RBI in this scenario.  Going back to the earlier example of the 5-4 game, it can be debated that the 5th run should be the GW RBI and not the 3rd.  With these issues, it's easy to see why this stat was discontinued.  

Streaking Tigers: Current Hot and Cold Hitting Steaks

A baseball season is a marathon, not a race.  Players go through many ups and downs throughout the season with the hopes that everything evens out by the end.  Here are three current hot and three current cold streaks as we head to the final 2 months of the season:

Hot Streaks:

Torii Hunter:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/16 - 7/31	161	0.358	0.366	0.629	9	28	4	0.378

Many people expected Hunter to regress some after the season he had in 2012, but he really hasn't. In a full season in 2012, Hunter hit .313/.365/.451 with a 130 wRC+ and so far in 2013, he has hit .316/.350/.481 with a 126 wRC+. His BABIP has fallen from the .389 mark he put up last year, as expected but it's still pretty high at .359.  This suggests that 2012 wasn't as big of a fluke as first indicated and that he has really changed his approach.  His walk rate continues to drop, at 4.2% in 2013 and only 2.5% during this hot streak.  Shockingly, he has gained some power that he lost last year with a .271 ISO during this streak.    

Victor Martinez:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/22 - 7/31	148	0.365	0.412	0.547	4	15	11	0.390

After missing the entire 2012 season due to an ACL injury, V-Mart's 2013 season started out slowly.  He only hit .221/.290/.274 in the month of April but gradually started improving as the season went on.  He's unlikely to continue hitting at a .390 BABIP pace but it looks like he's back to form.  With 9 HR on the year, he's primed to surpass the 12 he hit in 2011.

Alex Avila:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/16 - 7/31	81	0.286	0.375	0.486	3	21	9	0.370

It wasn't long ago when Tiger fans wanted Brayan Pena to take over primary catching duties (some probably still do!).  However, Alex Avila has started to heat up and his batting average has reached .200 for the first time since May 10th.  Similar to 2011, his BABIP is high (.366 in 2011 and .370 during this streak) and he's hitting for power (.211 ISO in 2011 and .200 during this streak).  Just like he wasn't able to sustain his numbers of 2011 into 2012, I don't expect his current hitting streak to continue, but he's not as bad as he was to start the season.  If Jhonny Peralta gets suspended, it should be Avila that moves to the 6th spot in the lineup.    

Cold Streaks:

Prince Fielder:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/20 - 7/31	156	0.220	0.295	0.348	5	24	15	0.232

Fielder started the year right where he left off last year with a OPS above or around .900 for most of the first half, but his OPS has fallen to under .800 at .795 on the year.  This streak has cause some Tiger fans to question his big contract as he's not performing up to expectations.  He's on pace to have 26 HR and a 118 wRC+, which would be his worst year since 2006 when he hit 28 HR and had a 110 wRC+.  At 29 years old, he shouldn't be on the decline yet, so hopefully he has another hot streak in him to finish the season.

Austin Jackson:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/26 - 7/31	146	0.208	0.283	0.362	3	39	13	0.270

It's unusual to see Jackson's BABIP this low.  He's currently at .332 on the season, which is the lowest he's put up in a season and below his career mark of .364.  Jackson seems to have long hot and cold streaks, so it's possible Jackson has another hot streak in him before the season is over.  It's important for a leadoff hitter like Jackson to get on base ahead of the big hitters, so hopefully he can finish the season strong.

Jose Iglesias:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/26 - 7/30	108	0.216	0.250	0.225	0	15	2	0.250

The newest Tiger had a career minor league stat line of .257/.307/.314.  So when he was hitting over .400 for the first half, many people weren't buying it and he has since came back down to Earth.  Unfortunately, what he's done during this cold streak is what we can expect for the rest of the season (if only slightly better).  He is still young, so there is still room for improvement as he reaches his prime years.  The Tigers acquired him for his Gold Glove potential anyway.