1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Andy Dirks, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Alex Avila, C
6. Austin Jackson, CF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Torii Hunter, RF
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
He also stipulated that Rajai Davis will likely play against left-handed pitching and either bat 2nd or Torii Hunter will move up and bat 2nd. He has some odd choices, like Austin Jackson suddenly being a power threat because he's going to turn 27 or Alex Avila is suddenly going to be a .300 AVG/.500 OPS hitter because...he's going to turn 27. Both Jackson and Avila have displayed these qualities before. Jackson had a .179 ISO in 2012 and Avila had a .295 AVG and a .506 SLG in 2011. However there are some signs that both those years were flukes, such as both had an abnormally high BABIP. Relying on both to repeat that performance in 2014 is a bit of a stretch. He also doesn't give much explanation in other spots, like Torii Hunter and number 8 "just seem to fit." Because that makes sense.
Joshua Mastracci of the sabermetrically-inclined Beyond the Boxscore also gave his Tigers' 2014 lineup:
Against RHP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ian Kinser, 2B
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Andy Dirks, LF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
Against LHP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ian Kinser, 2B
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Rajai Davis, LF
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
The big difference here is that he's moving Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez down to 4-5 spots instead of 3-4 and moving Torii Hunter to #3. Using the same rationale as in The Book, the #3 spot isn't as important as the #4 and #5 spots, so instead of just putting the still useful Hunter in the #5 spot, he's rearranged the order. It's a better explanation than what Henning used to plop him in the 8th spot at least. What I disagree the most about his lineup is that he moved Avila up a spot against LHP even though his numbers against them are horrible. His reasoning is that there needs to be a righty between the lefties Andy Dirks and Avila, but it's not needed when the righty Davis is in the lineup.
Which brings me to my lineups.
Lefty/righty splits are readily available, so why not use them to determine the batting order? Especially given that the Tigers are going to platoon at least 1 position (LF) and Dirks and Davis are two totally different hitters so just swapping one for the other in the batting order doesn't make much sense.
I'm using the last 2 years to get a big enough sample size.
Against RHP:
| Player | OBP | ISO |
|---|---|---|
Miguel Cabera
|
0.400
|
0.294
|
Victor Martinez
|
0.373
|
0.127
|
Austin Jackson
|
0.361
|
0.159
|
Alex Avila
|
0.356
|
0.167
|
Andy Dirks
|
0.346
|
0.138
|
Torii Hunter
|
0.339
|
0.150
|
Jose Iglesias
|
0.328
|
0.049
|
Ian Kinsler
|
0.310
|
0.145
|
Rajai Davis
|
0.283
|
0.100
|
Ignoring Nick Castellanos and Bryan Holaday for a second since they don't have big samples, this shows clearly that Davis shouldn't be starting against RHP. Keeping Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, Jackson and Avila have the next highest OBP, so they should get the top 2 spots against RHP. This will keep Henning happy since Avila is a left-handed bat, same as Dirks, and he wants to keep a lefty in the #2 spot to take advantage of the hole created between 1B and 2B if the first baseman is holding a runner on 1B.
If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 3-4 hitters, the lineup based on these numbers should be:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Alex Avila, C
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Torii Hunter, RF
6. Andy Dirks, LF
7. Ian Kinsler, 2B
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 4-5 hitters, the lineup should be:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Alex Avila, C
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Andy Dirks, LF
7. Ian Kinsler, 2B
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
| Player | OBP | ISO |
|---|---|---|
Miguel Cabrera
|
0.462
|
0.247
|
Ian Kinsler
|
0.401
|
0.174
|
Torii Hunter
|
0.376
|
0.153
|
Rajai Davis
|
0.362
|
0.154
|
Austin Jackson
|
0.349
|
0.169
|
Andy Dirks
|
0.329
|
0.107
|
Victor Martinez
|
0.324
|
0.133
|
Jose Iglesias
|
0.319
|
0.135
|
Alex Avila
|
0.268
|
0.073
|
Again, ignoring Castellanos and Holaday due to small sample sizes, these stats show Cabrera and Kinsler as the top 2 hitters in both OBP and ISO. I'm willing to discount Kinsler's numbers a little due to hitting in Arlington and I like to keep Cabrera and V-Mart together just for consistency. Kinsler, Hunter and Davis now have the highest OBP remaining. I think Kinsler will work better in the middle of the order because of his power and Davis' speed works better at the top of the order. These stats also show that Avila shouldn't be hitting at all against LHP.
If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 3-4 hitters, the lineup should be:
1. Rajai Davis, LF
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Ian Kinsler, 2B
6. Austin Jackson, CF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Bryan Holaday, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 4-5 hitters, the lineup should be:
1. Rajai Davis, LF
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Ian Kinsler, 2B
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Austin Jackson, CF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Bryan Holaday, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
It is likely that rookie manager Brad Ausmus is going to be more consistent than my proposed lineup and be more conventional. It is also likely that there's is some sort of comfort level among players on where they bat in the order. However, there is such a big difference in some of these players' splits, that it makes sense to switch it up a bit depending on who's pitching.
What would you like the lineup to look like? Post yours in the comments.
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