Comparing Jack Morris to Mickey Lolich

Jack Morris was denied entry into the Hall of Fame in his 15th and final time on the BBWAA ballot.  Now his only chance of enshrinement is the Veteran's Committee, starting in 3 years.  He may or may not get in, you may or may not agree that he should get in.  But the more I look at his stats, the more he reminds me of another Tigers great starting pitcher, Mickey Lolich.

Both were aces for several years on Tigers teams, both had won World Series rings as a member of the Tigers and neither had won a Cy Young Award.  Morris holds a record as the most wins during the 1980s and Lolich also holds a record as the most strikeouts in the American League by a left-handed pitcher.  Morris, however, has more All-Star games (5 to Lolich's 3,  including starting 3 of them), and 2 additional World Series rings, with the Minnesota Twins (1991) and the Toronto Blue Jays (1992).

Here are some traditional stats:

	IP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	CG	SHO	K%	BB%	HR%
Jack Morris	3824	254	186	3.90	1.30	175	28	15.4%	8.6%	2.4%
Mickey Lolich	3638 1/3	217	191	3.44	1.23	195	41	18.7%	7.3%	2.3%

The 3.90 ERA for Morris is high, high enough for some people to say that he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame.  The other side of that argument is that Morris pitched in a more offensive era.  Lolich pitched in a more pitcher-dominant era during the 1960's, with a higher mound and a slightly bigger strike zone.  Meanwhile, Morris pitched in a time where he never faced a pitcher-batter during the regular season.  From the time the DH-rule came about to right before Interleague Play started (1973-1996), if a pitcher spent his entire career in the American League, he never faced a pitcher-batter during the regular season.  This is exactly what happened to Morris, who pitched his entire career in the American League from 1977 to 1994.  

There aren't a lot of advanced stats out there to normalize the different eras (like batted ball data), but there are a few:

	ERA+	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Jack Morris	105	95	3.94	97	52.7	43.8
Mickey Lolich	104	96	3.20	87	62.0	48.8

ERA+ is a Baseball-Reference stat, the higher the number the better.  FIP- is a FanGraphs stat, the lower the number the better.  Both are calculated to reflect how the pitcher did relative to the league, with 100 being average.  In Morris' case, he was about 5% better than the league and Lolich was about 4% better than the league.  That's only a 1% difference.  Therefore a 3.90 ERA in Morris' era wasn't that much different than a 3.40 ERA in Lolich's era.  

Fielding Independence Pitching (FIP) uses the three "true" outcomes of strikeouts, walks and homeruns - the three stats that pitchers have the most control over.  This stat favors Lolich since he had better strikeout rates and walk rates while having about equal homerun rates to Morris.  FIP- is calculated by FanGraphs and uses the same premise of ERA-.  Lolich was about 13% better than his peers while Morris was only 3% better.

Split data has become more and more available from past seasons.  Baseball-Reference has just about every split imaginable for both Morris and Lolich.  Going back to Morris never facing a pitcher-batter, we can actually subtract that out of Lolich's numbers and only compare what he did against "real" hitters.

Here are Morris' batting against line versus non-pitchers:

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	vs. Non-P	549	16120	14443	1711	3567	572	91	389	373	142	1390	2478	1.78	.247	.313	.380	.693

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/8/2014.

And now Lolich's numbers versus non-pitchers:

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	vs. Non-P	586	14321	12975	1410	3248	550	71	335	156	147	1059	2516	2.38	.250	.309	.381	.690

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/8/2014.

Morris had a batting against line of .247/.313/.380/.693.  Lolich had a batting against line of .250/.309/.381/.690 (when taking out pitcher-batters).  That's extremely close.

We can also use that split data to show how well each performed in pressure situations, using leverage index.  Leverage is split into 3 different levels, high, low and medium.  High leverage situations are the close games, where one hit can be the difference in the game.  Low leverage are the blowouts, where a homerun is really inconsequential.  Medium leverage is somewhere in between.  

Jack Morris' Leverage Splits:

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	High Lvrge	471	2860	2509	712	649	99	11	65	10	9	209	416	1.99	.259	.310	.385	.695
	Medium Lvrge	544	7096	6380	635	1569	256	42	169	13	6	618	1094	1.77	.246	.313	.379	.692
	Low Lvrge	548	6163	5553	324	1349	217	38	155	1	0	563	968	1.72	.243	.315	.379	.694
	Unk Lvrge	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/8/2014.

Jack Morris was very consistent and it didn't really matter what the situation was, he allowed about a .693 OPS in all situations as shown above, a .695 OPS in high leverage, .692 in medium and a .694 in low.  This should be enough evidence to dispute the "he pitched to the score" nonsense argument.

Mickey Lolich's Leverage Splits:

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	High Lvrge	485	3049	2636	646	654	96	13	62	0	10	231	551	2.39	.248	.306	.365	.671
	Medium Lvrge	531	6345	5778	526	1446	221	25	163	0	10	442	1168	2.64	.250	.307	.382	.689
	Low Lvrge	551	5744	5271	255	1265	247	36	122	0	0	426	1113	2.61	.240	.301	.370	.670
	Unk Lvrge	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/8/2014.

Lolich was also fairly consistent, having slightly better numbers in higher pressure situations compared to medium level situations.  Lolich was slightly better than Morris in the high pressure situations (.671 OPS versus .695), however we don't know how many pitcher-batters he faced in these situations, so they could be closer than at first glance.

Jack Morris pitched twice as many innings in the playoffs as Mickey Lolich and won 2 more World Series rings.  His most memorable game was in game 7 of the 1991 World Series, defeating John Smoltz in a 10-inning shutout.  Lolich also has a memorable World Series, with 3 CG victories including defeating Bob Gibson in game 7 of the 1968 World Series.  Lolich's stats are a little bit more shiny:

	IP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
Jack Morris	92 1/3	7	4	3.80	1.25	16.8%	8.4%
Mickey Lolich	46	3	1	1.57	0.98	17.2%	6.1%

I was not a fan of baseball during the time both of these pitchers pitched.  The only way I can evaluate them is with stats, with no emotion attached.  And with the stats presented to me, it's hard to imagine how one can garner so much Hall of Fame attention while the other is a forgotten pitcher.

Jack Morris Baseball-Reference Page

Jack Morris FanGraphs Page

Mickey Lolich Baseball-Reference Page

Mickey Lolich FanGraphs Page