| 2014 | IP | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TB
|
170 2/3
|
0.301
|
20.7%
|
40.5%
|
38.8%
|
27.4%
|
3.3%
|
DET
|
77 2/3
|
0.317
|
20.5%
|
42.7%
|
36.8%
|
25.6%
|
4.7%
|
There's not much difference in the batted ball data (line drive, fly ball and ground ball rates). The strikeout rate is lower, but still higher than any other season. The walk rate is the biggest jump, but not at an alarming rate. However, Price had a 3.59 ERA for the Tigers, which was up from a 3.11 ERA on the Rays. The stats show it is most likely the defense that was the biggest difference.
2014
|
ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB |
3.11
|
2.93
|
2.70
|
2.63
|
| DET |
3.59
|
2.44
|
2.89
|
2.92
|
The ERA estimators show that Price should have had an ERA below 3.00 last year, for both the Tigers and Tampa Bay. The good news is that the Tigers should have a better overall defense in 2015. If Jose Iglesias is healthy and is the primary shortshop, that is a huge improvement in the infield defense. It's also hard to imagine Nick Castellanos to be worse than his historically bad 3B defense. All three OF spots should also provide better overall defense.
David Price is entering his age 29 season in 2015, an age that is usually right in the middle of "prime" years, therefore a repeat performance shouldn't be out of the question. His K/9 was over 9.0 for the first time in his career last year. For the 2nd straight year, his BB/9 was under 2.0. If both these trends continue in 2015, he could have his best season yet.
The other number that jumps out is his innings pitched. Price had pitched a total of 248 1/3 innings in 2015, which is the 5th most a pitcher has thrown in a single season over the last 5 years. Given his age, it shouldn't be a cause for alarm yet; the four pitchers ahead of him pitched somewhere between 227 and 238 innings the following year. Bearing injury, there should be no reason to expect Price to not pitch over 200 innings again in 2015. I do find it interesting that there is a lot of similarity to Justin Verlander in innings pitched per game started over the years:
| IP/GS | Age 26 | Age 27 | Age 28 | Age 29 | Age 30 | Age 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Verlander
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
7.4
|
7.2
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
Price
|
6.8
|
6.9
|
7.3
|
???
|
???
|
???
|
There might be some cause for concern later on, but not in 2015, if there is any correlation to decreasing number of innings and performance that Verlander has shown.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
192
|
13-9
|
3.23
|
1.11
|
179
|
37
|
CAIRO
|
218
|
14-10
|
3.03
|
1.15
|
215
|
39
|
ZiPS
|
210 2/3
|
15-9
|
3.67
|
1.19
|
204
|
40
|
RotoChamp
|
200
|
16-7
|
2.88
|
1.09
|
202
|
33
|
CBS Sports
|
240
|
19-7
|
2.89
|
1.09
|
253
|
43
|
ESPN
|
224
|
17 W
|
3.25
|
1.08
|
216
|
37
|
MLB.com
|
220
|
16-9
|
3.03
|
1.07
|
218
|
31
|
FanGraphs' Fans (21)
|
228
|
16-9
|
3.23
|
1.04
|
231
|
40
|
My Prediction:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2014 Actual
|
248 1/3
|
15-12
|
3.26
|
1.079
|
271
|
38
|
2015 Predicion
|
234 2/3
|
18-7
|
3.03
|
1.074
|
238
|
40
|
Fantasy Impact: According to Mock Draft Central, Price is being taken 35th overall, which is the end of the 3rd round in a standard 12-team league. This is about where I'd put him. Price may barely be out of the top 5 SP ranking, but he's definitely in the top 10. With a high strikeout rate, low ERA and WHIP, he'll be able to anchor your starting pitching.
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