When a player has struggled through parts of his first 3 years in the majors and then provides as much value as J.D. Martinez did, there is always skepticism about how long he can keep it up. One can point to his .389 BABIP and see that he probably won't be able to hit as well in 2015 as he did in 2014.
The following data is taken from FanGraphs:
| BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
0.389
|
22.7%
|
40.5%
|
36.8%
|
Sometimes we can break this down further to see which batted ball contributed to the good fortune:
2014
|
LD AVG | GB AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
J.D. Martinez
|
0.764
|
0.331
|
0.363
|
League Average
|
0.690
|
0.239
|
0.212
|
J.D. Martinez outhit the league in every batted ball category by a lot. This isn't always a cause of concern; speedster players usually have a very high ground ball average since they are able to beat out a lot of infield singles. J.D. did have 6 SB and 10 infield hits, so it could be concluded that he has slightly above average speed. However, there will be some regression in his BABIP.
J.D. Martinez didn't quite have enough PA to qualify for the batting title. So if I scale back the qualifier to 400 PA and rank every single season BABIP over the past 10 years, only one name appears twice on the first page - Ichiro Suzuki who had a .389 BABIP in 2007 and a .384 BABIP in 2009. Even Austin Jackson, who is known to have a high BABIP, only accomplished a .380+ BABIP once (in his rookie season). And J.D. doesn't have the speed of an Ichiro or A-Jax.
If I regress J.D.'s BABIP to a more reasonable .340 range, his batting average regresses to around the .280 range Still really good, but it falls about 35 points. Regress the BABIP even further to .320 and his batting average falls to about .267. You can see the trend. I wouldn't expect J.D. to hit .300 again any time soon.
What about his power?
| SLG | ISO | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|
0.553
|
0.238
|
19.5%
|
Among everyone with at least 400 PA, J.D. finished 6th in slugging percentage, 13th in isolated power and T-9th in HR/FB ratio. The real concern here is the HR/FB ratio, which usually regresses back to career norms after an anomaly. The hard part is figuring out what J.D.'s career norm actually is. His career average is 13.6%, but that includes parts of three seasons where he hadn't really put everything together yet. When Miguel Cabrera was hitting 40+ HR, his HR/FB ratio was around 23-25%, with the other years around 18-19% when he was hitting mid-30s home runs (until 2014 when it was 14% with only 25 HR). Does J.D. Martinez really have the same power as 2008-11 Miguel Cabrera? My gut tells me no.
It's really easy to root for a guy like J.D. Martinez, especially when he is currently hitting .344/.417/.719 in Spring Training. But the smart move here is to expect a regression all across the board as pitchers will have more scouting reports on J.D. and exploit his weaknesses more.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
534
|
0.273
|
0.322
|
0.463
|
22
|
79
|
6
|
37
|
139
|
CAIRO
|
460
|
0.274
|
0.324
|
0.469
|
19
|
54
|
5
|
30
|
121
|
ZiPS
|
487
|
0.283
|
0.328
|
0.483
|
21
|
90
|
5
|
32
|
126
|
RotoChamp
|
505
|
0.283
|
0.325
|
0.477
|
22
|
79
|
5
|
32
|
141
|
CBS Sports
|
550
|
0.278
|
0.320
|
0.504
|
28
|
91
|
5
|
34
|
149
|
ESPN
|
503
|
0.278
|
0.324
|
0.483
|
22
|
77
|
6
|
33
|
134
|
MLB.com
|
523
|
0.279
|
0.332
|
0.482
|
23
|
87
|
6
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs' Fans (23)
|
547
|
0.282
|
0.330
|
0.475
|
23
|
85
|
5
|
39
|
150
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2014 Actual
|
441
|
0.315
|
0.358
|
0.553
|
23
|
76
|
6
|
30
|
126
|
2015 Prediction
|
556
|
0.257
|
0.309
|
0.423
|
19
|
79
|
8
|
39
|
157
|
Fantasy Impact: It's really hard to place a guy like J.D. Martinez after the year that he had. Players like this tend to be overrated and taken a round or two higher than their actual value. Right now, according to Mock Draft Central, J.D.'s average draft position is around 98 (middle of the 9th round in a standard 12-team league). My strategy is usually to be conservative in breakout players and have someone else assume the risk and try to find this year's J.D. Martinez later on in the draft.
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