Friday, May 31, 2013

Tigers Waste Two Great Pitching Performances

Pitching wins is a stat that traditionalists hang onto despite the known flaws and better alternatives. There was even a debate about it spawned off an article about Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in the comments at Bless You Boys. The flaw of course is that the pitcher is at the mercy of the offense; he can’t get the win if his offense doesn’t give him any runs. There have now been two recent incidents of this:


Player Date IP H ER BB K
5/28/2013
8
3
0
1
11
5/30/2013
7
4
0
1
12

The Tigers were shutout in both games and therefore each pitcher didn’t get a win. One alternative to pitching wins is to just look at Game Score, a stat created by Bill James. To calculate Game Score:
  • Start with 50 points
  • Add 1 point for each out, so 3 points for each inning
  • Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th inning
  • Add 1 point for each strikeout
  • Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed
  • Subtract 4 points for each earned run
  • Subtract 2 points for each unearned run
  • Subtract 1 point for each walk
Game Score attempts to measure the strength of the pitcher’s start; the higher the score, the better the start. Lee Panas at Tiger Tales used Game Score to point out one of Justin Verlander’s recent starts was one of the worst of his career. To look at the opposite direction, here are the Tigers best Game Scores so far in 2013:


Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 Anibal Sanchez 2013-05-24 DET MIN W 6-0 SHO9 ,W 9.0 1 0 0 3 12 0 130 85 94
2 Anibal Sanchez 2013-04-26 DET ATL W 10-0 GS-8 ,W 8.0 5 0 0 1 17 0 121 84 88
3 Rick Porcello 2013-05-28 DET PIT L 0-1 GS-8 8.0 3 0 0 1 11 0 99 67 86
4 Doug Fister 2013-05-30 DET PIT L 0-1 GS-7 7.0 4 0 0 1 12 0 116 73 80
5 Max Scherzer 2013-05-21 DET CLE W 5-1 GS-8 ,W 8.0 2 1 1 1 7 0 118 77 80
6 Justin Verlander 2013-05-05 DET HOU W 9-0 GS-7 ,W 7.0 2 0 0 2 9 0 116 80 80
7 Max Scherzer 2013-05-04 DET HOU W 17-2 GS-8 ,W 8.0 3 1 1 2 8 1 105 74 78
8 Max Scherzer 2013-04-17 DET SEA W 2-1 GS-8 8.0 6 1 1 1 12 0 105 75 77
9 Anibal Sanchez 2013-04-14 DET OAK W 10-1 GS-7 ,W 7.0 3 1 1 4 8 0 113 68 71
10 Justin Verlander 2013-04-30 DET MIN W 6-1 GS-7 ,W 7.0 5 1 1 2 8 0 114 73 69
Generated 5/31/2013.

In Rick Porcello's case, that was the best Game Score of his career.  Both Porcello and Fister's starts are in the top 5 best pitching performances so far this year - yet they have nothing to show for their efforts.

Historically, how do they rank in Tigers history?  Using Baseball Reference's Play Index, I set the parameters to include the Tigers best Game Scores in which the pitcher didn't get the win (either a no decision or a loss) set back as far as it will go, to 1916:  


Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 Les Mueller 1945-07-21 DET PHA T 1-1 GS-20 19.2 13 1 0 5 6 0 112
2 Eric Erickson 1918-05-24 DET WSH T 2-2 16.0 8 2 1 0 12 0 112
3 Al Aber 1954-08-13 DET CHW L 0-1 CG 16 ,L 15.1 9 1 1 3 8 0 101
4 Harry Coveleski 1916-05-19 DET NYY T 2-2 16.0 8 2 2 6 7 0 99
5 Tommy Bridges 1942-08-11 (1) DET CLE T 0-0 14.0 9 0 0 5 8 0 97
6 Schoolboy Rowe 1941-09-21 (2) DET CHW T 1-1 14.0 8 1 1 3 6 0 95
7 Harry Coveleski 1916-07-02 DET CHW L 0-1 11.2 5 1 1 0 8 0 93
8 Jim Bunning 1963-04-20 DET BOS L 3-4 GS-12 12.0 7 1 1 2 10 0 92
9 Jim Bunning 1957-05-21 DET BAL W 2-1 GS-13 13.0 10 1 1 2 11 1 92
10 Ralph Branca 1953-09-05 DET SLB L 0-1 CG 12 ,L 11.0 4 1 1 1 8 1 92
Generated 5/31/2013.

Neither Porcello or Fister's start made the list.  However, looking at everyone on the list, each one pitched more than 9 innings.  In this day and age, that feat is rare.  Changing the parameters so that the maximum innings are set to 9, produces this list:


Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 Mickey Lolich 1969-06-09 DET SEP L 2-3 GS-9 9.0 4 1 1 1 16 1 90
2 Earl Wilson 1966-07-06 DET CAL L 0-1 GS-9 9.0 4 0 0 1 11 0 89
3 Rick Porcello 2013-05-28 DET PIT L 0-1 GS-8 8.0 3 0 0 1 11 0 99 67 86
4 Jeff Weaver 2002-06-12 DET MON L 1-2 GS-9 9.0 2 1 1 2 9 1 117 82 86
5 Schoolboy Rowe 1935-09-22 DET SLB L 0-1 9.0 4 1 1 0 10 0 85
6 Justin Verlander 2012-04-05 DET BOS W 3-2 GS-8 8.0 2 0 0 1 7 0 105 66 84
7 Jack Morris 1988-07-26 DET KCR W 2-1 GS-9 9.0 4 1 1 1 10 0 127 87 84
8 Dan Petry 1985-09-28 DET BOS L 0-2 GS-9 9.0 2 0 0 4 5 0 84
9 Dave Wickersham 1964-05-10 (1) DET BAL L 1-2 CG 9 ,L 9.0 3 2 0 4 11 0 84
10 Max Scherzer 2010-09-01 DET MIN L 1-2 GS-9 9.0 4 1 1 1 9 0 106 76 83
11 Jim Bunning 1960-08-02 (2) DET NYY L 2-3 GS-9 8.0 2 1 1 2 11 0 83
12 Tommy Bridges 1940-05-11 DET CHW L 0-1 9.0 2 1 1 2 6 0 83
13 Frank Lary 1958-09-03 DET CHW L 0-1 CG 9 ,L 9.0 2 1 1 2 5 0 82
14 Justin Verlander 2012-08-23 DET TOR W 3-2 GS-9 9.0 4 2 2 2 12 1 115 76 81
15 Mickey Lolich 1965-09-22 DET CHW L 1-2 CG 9 ,L 9.0 5 2 1 1 11 1 81
16 Ted Gray 1951-08-12 DET SLB W 2-1 8.0 3 1 1 3 12 1 81
17 Vic Sorrell 1932-04-17 DET SLB L 0-1 9.0 3 1 1 1 5 0 81
18 Doug Fister 2013-05-30 DET PIT L 0-1 GS-7 7.0 4 0 0 1 12 0 116 73 80
19 Willie Blair 1999-04-12 DET MIN L 0-1 GS-8 8.0 3 0 0 0 4 0 92 58 80
20 Jack Morris 1990-07-27 DET BOS L 0-1 CG 9 ,L 9.0 4 1 0 2 5 0 122 78 80
21 Mark Fidrych 1976-07-29 DET BAL L 0-1 CG 9 ,L 9.0 6 1 0 1 8 0 80
22 Earl Whitehill 1929-08-23 DET WSH L 0-1 9.0 4 1 1 0 5 0 80
Generated 5/31/2013.

I had to expand the list to 22 to get both of Porcello and Fister's starts on the list.  One interesting note is that there wasn't an instance of two top Game Score non-wins in the same year with a maximum of nine innings until 2012 - and both were by Verlander, one at the beginning and one at the end of the year.  The two starts in 2013 happened just days apart!