| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
fWAR
|
2.0
|
T-2nd
|
FIP
|
1.87
|
T-2nd
|
xFIP
|
2.30
|
3rd
|
tERA
|
2.18
|
3rd
|
SIERA
|
2.27
|
2nd
|
However, his ERA is 3.61, which ranks him at 56 among starting pitchers. What's going on? Well it seems it all has to do with his left on base percentage (LOB%). His LOB% is 63.1%, ranking him 8th lowest and well below the league average rate of 73.3%. If these runners aren't left on base, it means they are scoring and raising the pitcher's ERA. It's been long thought of that this stat is a luck stat and will eventually even out by the end of the season to around league average.
In 2012, FanGraphs introduced fielding dependent pitching, suggesting that pitchers do have some control over balls in play and that it's not all luck (as FIP only factors in strikeouts, walks, hit batters and home runs). One of those stats was LOB-Wins, stating that there could be some skill involved in stranding runners.
Below is how Scherzer has been in LOB-Wins while with the Tigers:
| Year | LOB-Wins |
|---|---|
2010
|
0.3
|
2011
|
0.4
|
2012
|
0.6
|
2013
|
-0.9
|
The -0.9 ranks him 2nd lowest among starting pitchers . However, he's always been able to have a positive number, which means he's been a little bit better than league average, as shown:
| Year | LOB% | League
LOB% |
|---|---|---|
2010
|
74.9%
|
72.2%
|
2011
|
73.7%
|
72.5%
|
2012
|
76.5%
|
72.5%
|
2013
|
63.1%
|
73.3%
|
One of two things is happening. Either he's doing something differently that has changed his skill (either mentally, mechanically or something else) or it truly is luck and he'll regress back to mean. If it is luck (unfortunate luck in this case) or something mechanical that can be fixed, then Scherzer is primed for a really good year this year as he regresses back to his career norm.
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