2015 Preseason Prediction #15 - Jose Iglesias

Jose Iglesias was acquired by the Red Sox in a three-way deal that sent Avisail Garcia to the White Sox back in 2013.  His numbers for the Tigers were overall down from what he did with the Sox that year:

2013	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
Red Sox	0.330	0.376	0.409	4.7%	12.8%	116
Tigers	0.259	0.306	0.348	2.7%	20.3%	80

The high batting average can be attributed to a high BABIP with the Red Sox (.376).  When that stabilized to a more normal .320 BABIP with the Tigers, his batting average took a nosedive.  But what's really worrisome is that his already low walk rate declined even further and his strikeout rate spiked up.  The good news is that his walk rate in the minors was 5.7% and even better at the AAA level, 6.2%, so the 2.7% mark doesn't look like his norm.  Same is true with his strikeout rate, which was only at 14.4% in the minors.  

Now comes the bad news. Jose Iglesias missed the entire 2014 season due to stress fractures in both of his shins.  Players who miss an entire season usually do not come back strong, at least not right away.  Victor Martinez only hit .258/.314/.380 in the first half of the 2013 season after he missed all of the 2012 season.  Now factor in that Jose Iglesias isn't on the same level of talent as Victor Martinez.  

No, a better comparison would be Stephen Drew.  While he didn't miss a full year, he did miss 2 months of the 2014 season and then proceeded to hit .162/.237/.299 for the remainder of the season.  His missed time wasn't due to an injury, but a compensation draft pick attached to his signing that no team wanted to give up.  

Iglesias has always been a fielding first player.  His AAA slash line was .244/.296/.292 in over 900 PA.  His time spent with the Red Sox in 2013 shouldn't be considered as it was far and away from his true talent level.  Now factor in his time spent on the DL and an injury which could be nagging all year long and...well, I don't foresee a breakout year from Iglesias this year.  Normally I don't look at Spring Training stats, but the fact that he's hitting only .105/.150/.132 in 40 ST PA doesn't help my confidence in him. 

Tiger shortstops hit a combined .226/.288/.293 in 2014.  I'm not convinced that Jose Iglesias will be able to do much better than that.  


Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	400	0.256	0.300	0.339	4	38	10	20	60
CAIRO	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
ZiPS	379	0.253	0.298	0.311	3	30	9	19	62
RotoChamp	350	0.266	0.315	0.343	3	28	5	15	61
CBS Sports	500	0.270	0.303	0.348	4	38	10	24	76
ESPN	478	0.251	0.301	0.322	5	36	11	26	74
MLB.com	475	0.263	0.303	0.354	5	40	7	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (6)	467	0.257	0.301	0.338	4	41	9	23	93

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2015 Prediction	389	0.226	0.270	0.296	2	24	5	15	76

Fantasy Impact: Jose Iglesias isn't going to hit for a high average, hit for a lot of power or steal a lot of bases. Unless your league uses defense categories, Iglesias is absolutely useless in fantasy leagues.