Cespedes has some declining trends since making his ML debut in 2012 after defecting from Cuba:
| Year | BABIP | AVG | BB% | K% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012
|
0.326
|
0.292
|
8.0%
|
18.9%
|
0.214
|
2013
|
0.274
|
0.240
|
6.4%
|
23.9%
|
0.202
|
2014
|
0.293
|
0.260
|
5.4%
|
19.8%
|
0.190
|
Cespedes had a .326 BABIP in his rookie year, which led to a high batting average of .292. His BABIP hasn't reach quite as high in the last couple of years, which has resulted in lower batting averages.
Looking at batted ball data, there does seem to be a trend of declining ground balls and an increase in fly balls:
| Year | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2012
|
19.6%
|
40.5%
|
39.9%
|
14.8%
|
2013
|
16.7%
|
37.7%
|
45.6%
|
14.4%
|
2014
|
18.4%
|
33.6%
|
48.0%
|
9.6%
|
This could explain why Cespedes has had lower batting averages in the last two years. Cespedes gets more base hits when hitting the ball on the ground then he does hitting the ball in the air, probably due to his above average speed (all numbers from FanGraphs):
| Year | LD AVG | GB AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
2012
|
0.750
|
0.306
|
0.243
|
2013
|
0.636
|
0.309
|
0.220
|
2014
|
0.713
|
0.261
|
0.232
|
The other concerning declining number is the walk rate. Cespedes had a very respectable 8% walk rate in his rookie year. However, that number decreased to 6.4% in 2013 and fell even further in 2014 to 5.4%. If he could get this number back to around 8%, he could be an intriguing candidate for the #2 spot in the batting order given his above average speed. However, this is looking more and more like an aberration and his low OBP doesn't really justify him at the #2 spot.
Cespedes' ISO has also been trending down, but not at an alarming rate. It has been the most stable out of all of these numbers. His power numbers are better suited for the middle of the batting order, most likely at #5. Baring injury, he should be able to top 20 HR again.
Lastly, Cespdes' left/righty splits make no sense. In 2013, he hit better against LHP, but in 2014 he hit better against RHP:
| AVG | Vs. RHP | Vs. LHP |
|---|---|---|
2012
|
0.289
|
0.298
|
2013
|
0.223
|
0.280
|
2014
|
0.279
|
0.199
|
If he could get his splits back to about even like it was in 2012, this could also help bring his batting average back to the .290-range. Being a right-handed hitter, it makes sense that he'll hit left-handed pitchers better, so I expected a repeat of the 2013 splits.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
551
|
0.267
|
0.320
|
0.463
|
23
|
73
|
7
|
38
|
122
|
CAIRO
|
564
|
0.259
|
0.312
|
0.454
|
24
|
81
|
9
|
39
|
130
|
ZiPS
|
579
|
0.275
|
0.324
|
0.482
|
27
|
103
|
10
|
39
|
120
|
RotoChamp
|
548
|
0.272
|
0.318
|
0.462
|
23
|
89
|
8
|
35
|
124
|
CBS Sports
|
585
|
0.248
|
0.294
|
0.434
|
23
|
86
|
6
|
38
|
130
|
ESPN
|
581
|
0.267
|
0.316
|
0.473
|
23
|
97
|
6
|
41
|
124
|
MLB.com
|
568
|
0.269
|
0.319
|
0.488
|
25
|
95
|
8
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs' Fans (25)
|
577
|
0.265
|
0.315
|
0.470
|
24
|
86
|
7
|
38
|
129
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Prediction
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2014 Actual
|
600
|
0.260
|
0.301
|
0.450
|
22
|
100
|
7
|
35
|
128
|
2015 Prediction
|
577
|
0.253
|
0.302
|
0.451
|
25
|
93
|
7
|
38
|
131
|
Fantasy Impact: Yoenis Cespedes currently has an average draft position of 53 according to Mock Draft Central, which places him in the 4th round. This sounds about right as there were only 10 outfielders last year who hit 25+ home runs and only 6 of them had 90+ RBI. So if Cespedes can reach those numbers, he'd be worth a 4th round pick.
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