2015 Preseason Prediction #5 - Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes was acquired from the Boston Red Sox when the Tigers traded away Rick Porcello.  Cespedes will replace Torii Hunter in the OF.  Will he hit better than Hunter did last year?  

Cespedes has some declining trends since making his ML debut in 2012 after defecting from Cuba:

Year	BABIP	AVG	BB%	K%	ISO
2012	0.326	0.292	8.0%	18.9%	0.214
2013	0.274	0.240	6.4%	23.9%	0.202
2014	0.293	0.260	5.4%	19.8%	0.190

Cespedes had a .326 BABIP in his rookie year, which led to a high batting average of .292.  His BABIP hasn't reach quite as high in the last couple of years, which has resulted in lower batting averages.

Looking at batted ball data, there does seem to be a trend of declining ground balls and an increase in fly balls:

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB
2012	19.6%	40.5%	39.9%	14.8%
2013	16.7%	37.7%	45.6%	14.4%
2014	18.4%	33.6%	48.0%	9.6%

This could explain why Cespedes has had lower batting averages in the last two years.  Cespedes gets more base hits when hitting the ball on the ground then he does hitting the ball in the air, probably due to his above average speed (all numbers from FanGraphs):

Year	LD AVG	GB AVG	FB AVG
2012	0.750	0.306	0.243
2013	0.636	0.309	0.220
2014	0.713	0.261	0.232

The other concerning declining number is the walk rate.  Cespedes had a very respectable 8% walk rate in his rookie year.  However, that number decreased to 6.4% in 2013 and fell even further in 2014 to 5.4%.  If he could get this number back to around 8%, he could be an intriguing candidate for the #2 spot in the batting order given his above average speed.  However, this is looking more and more like an aberration and his low OBP doesn't really justify him at the #2 spot.  

Cespedes' ISO has also been trending down, but not at an alarming rate.  It has been the most stable out of all of these numbers.  His power numbers are better suited for the middle of the batting order, most likely at #5.  Baring injury, he should be able to top 20 HR again.  

Lastly, Cespdes' left/righty splits make no sense.  In 2013, he hit better against LHP, but in 2014 he hit better against RHP:

AVG	Vs. RHP	Vs. LHP
2012	0.289	0.298
2013	0.223	0.280
2014	0.279	0.199

If he could get his splits back to about even like it was in 2012, this could also help bring his batting average back to the .290-range.  Being a right-handed hitter, it makes sense that he'll hit left-handed pitchers better, so I expected a repeat of the 2013 splits.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	551	0.267	0.320	0.463	23	73	7	38	122
CAIRO	564	0.259	0.312	0.454	24	81	9	39	130
ZiPS	579	0.275	0.324	0.482	27	103	10	39	120
RotoChamp	548	0.272	0.318	0.462	23	89	8	35	124
CBS Sports	585	0.248	0.294	0.434	23	86	6	38	130
ESPN	581	0.267	0.316	0.473	23	97	6	41	124
MLB.com	568	0.269	0.319	0.488	25	95	8	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (25)	577	0.265	0.315	0.470	24	86	7	38	129

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	600	0.260	0.301	0.450	22	100	7	35	128
2015 Prediction	577	0.253	0.302	0.451	25	93	7	38	131

Fantasy Impact:  Yoenis Cespedes currently has an average draft position of 53 according to Mock Draft Central, which places him in the 4th round.  This sounds about right as there were only 10 outfielders last year who hit 25+ home runs and only 6 of them had 90+ RBI.  So if Cespedes can reach those numbers, he'd be worth a 4th round pick.  

Batting Order for 2015 - J.D. Should Bat 2nd

The bigger off-season moves for the Tigers seem to be done, with Max Scherzer returning the only thing left undecided (and I give that move about a 50/50 chance of actually happening).  The Tigers have resigned Victor Martinez to be their DH again; Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are all returning.  There will be some form of a platoon with Rajai Davis and newcomer Anthony Gose in CF while another potential platoon will happen at catcher with Alex Avila and prospect James McCann.  Jose Iglesias is (hopefully) finally healthy and will be the primary shortstop, like the Tigers envisioned when they gave up Avisail Garcia at the 2013 trade deadline.  Yoenis Cespedes is the big off-season acquisition bat and will be replacing Torii Hunter in the OF (although it's likely Cespedes will be playing LF and J.D. will be moving to RF).  

So what will the lineup look like?  A few things are set in stone, Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart will bat 3rd and 4th.  J.D. Martinez and Cespedes will be also be in the middle of the order (with one of them possibly batting 2nd).  Kinsler and/or Davis will likely be at the top and Iglesias will be at the bottom.  But what do the numbers say?  Since the Tigers are going to platoon at least 2 positions, I think there should be two distinct batting orders: one against righties and one against lefties.  

Vs. RHP:
2B Ian Kinsler (.273/.305/.417)
RF J.D. Martinez (.318/.357/.523)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.317/.373/.520)
DH Victor Martinez (.323/.402/.522)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.279/.311/.466)
3B Nick Castellanos (.266/.301/.401)
C Alex Avila (.215/.340/.380)
CF Anthony Gose (.238/.329/.312)
SS Jose Iglesias (.308/.354/.362*)

*All numbers are 2014 splits against RHP except for Iglesias, who missed all of the 2014 season.  So his splits are from 2013.  

The Tigers don't have a clear lead-off hitter here.  After placing Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, J.D. has the highest OBP remaining.  However, he's lacking the speed that a true lead-off hitter possesses and he has home run power that better suits the #2 position.  Avila has a high OBP, but again lacks speed.  Gose has a respectable OBP, but lacks experience.  Iglesias also has good numbers here, but it comes from a likely inflated BABIP and his numbers are surely going to drop after missing a whole year.  Therefore, Kinsler is the lead-off hitter by default.  Hopefully he's able to get his BB% back closer to his 8.9% career mark instead of the puny 4.0% he put up last year.  


Vs. LHP:
CF Rajai Davis (.356/.382/.557)
RF J.D. Martinez (.307/.362/.640)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.301/.364/.536)
DH Victor Martinez (.371/.430/.692)
2B Ian Kinsler (.281/.313/.427)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.199/.269/.397)
3B Nick Castellanos (.237/.319/.374)
C James McCann (.336/.396/.469*)
SS Jose Iglesias (.294/.341/.429*)

*Again, Iglesias' splits are from 2013 and James McCann's splits are from AAA.  Everyone else's splits are from the 2014 season.

The Tigers should have a much more potent lineup against LHP.  Davis has dramatic lefty/right splits, but his lefty splits are good enough that he should be leading off.  Martinez had consistent splits vs. lefties and righties in 2014, so hopefully he's able to carry that over for 2015.  V-Mart will likely not be able to duplicate his breakout year again, but should provide enough offense for the cleanup spot.  Cespedes had unusual number against LHP in 2014, but if he's able to revert back to career norms, then he should bat 5th instead of 6th.  James McCann had great numbers vs. lefites in AAA and will provide a perfect platoon for Avila, who hits righties well enough.  Again, Iglesias benefited from an inflated BABIP in 2014 and won't be able to hit this well after missing a whole year.

Brad Ausmus may want to go with a more consistent lineup.  Davis/Gose platoon might see the bulk share of games at lead-off with Ian Kinsler batting 2nd.  Martinez and Cespedes will then bat 5th and 6th respectively and then the bottom of the order consisting of Castellanos, Avila and Iglesias.  Or he might put DavisGose at the #9 spot for the "second lead-off position" (which I don't particularly agree with).  

One thing that I hoping for is J.D. Martinez batting 2nd.  It's the next natural position to place a Tigers hitter after Cabrera and V-Mart 3rd and 4th.  And going by "The Book," it's a much more important spot than previously assumed.  Ausmus may be inclined to put Cespedes there, but he just doesn't have the OBP that fits that position.  If J.D. Martinez is the real deal (and I think he is) then he needs to batting 2nd for the Tigers.