2015 Preseason Prediction #12 and #13 - Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis

I'm combining both Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis in one post because they are expected to platoon at the centerfield position.  

Davis has been exceptional against LHP:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2012	0.285	0.345	0.437	0.340	112
2013	0.319	0.383	0.474	0.376	136
2014	0.356	0.382	0.557	0.408	164
Career	0.304	0.358	0.446	0.353	120

While Gose is expected to get the playing time against RHP:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2012	0.207	0.305	0.296	0.275	67
2013	0.287	0.306	0.481	0.339	110
2014	0.238	0.329	0.312	0.295	84
Career	0.241	0.316	0.350	0.299	85

While not as spectacular as Davis' platoon numbers, Gose's career 85 wRC+ is better than Davis' career 74 wRC+ against RHP.

Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis are on opposite ends of their prime years.  Gose is entering his age 24 season, an age where many players have their breakout seasons (and if Spring Training is any indication, Gose is going to have a nice breakout year this year).  Davis is entering his age 34 season and is on the verge of exiting is prime years.  Therefore, we can expect Gose's numbers to improve this year and Davis' numbers to start to decline.

Anthony Gose is the lefty-hitter of the platoon and has superior defense, so his playing time will be much higher than Rajai's.  Davis' playing time will largely depend on Tyler Collins.  If the Tigers go with Collins as an extra outfielder instead of Hernan Perez or Andrew Romine, there will not be a lot of playing time for Davis in either LF or RF.  However, if the Tigers go with Perez and Romine for the final 2 bench spots, Davis will be the primary backup for the corners and his playing time will increase.


As far as power is concerned, Rajai tied a career high in HR with 8, but was fairly consistent in his ISO and HR/FB ratios over the last few years:

Year	ISO	HR/FB
2012	0.121	7.3%
2013	0.115	6.0%
2014	0.119	6.8%

And Gose looks to have even less power:

Year	ISO	HR/FB
2012	0.096	4.8%
2013	0.150	7.4%
2014	0.067	7.1%
Career	0.098	6.6%

Gose's 2013 ISO looks to be a fluke given his low PA (153).  

Of course, you don't care about these players' power numbers.  What about their speed!  Rajai Davis has stolen at least 30 bases each year since 2009, with a career high of 50 in 2010.  Anthony Gose, while only at 34 steals in 616 career PA, has stolen as much as 76 bases in A-ball in 2009 and 69 bases in 2011 in AA.

The question remains on where they will bat in the batting order.  Davis' BB% was only 4.5% last year and is at 5.5% career-wise.  His OBP is helped by having a high batting average.  Gose had a very good 9.1% BB% last year (matching his 9.1% walk rate in AAA), but his OBP isn't much better than Davis' due to a very low batting average.  If both these players are stuck in the bottom of the batting order because of poor OBP, then they might not have many stolen base attempts.  However, having the platoon advantage should help and it looks like they will both be batting in the top of the order when they are playing.  

Anthony Gose:

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	338	0.235	0.296	0.343	5	33	19	27	91
CAIRO	513	0.222	0.289	0.318	6	47	30	41	152
ZiPS	523	0.254	0.314	0.348	6	44	34	40	131
RotoChamp	285	0.232	0.301	0.309	3	23	16	25	80
CBS Sports	420	0.231	0.299	0.321	3	28	28	41	131
ESPN	365	0.230	0.297	0.329	4	28	23	30	107
MLB.com	415	0.241	0.309	0.318	4	33	23	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	416	0.248	0.322	0.317	2	36	21	39	117

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	239	0.226	0.311	0.293	2	13	15	25	74
2015 Prediction	393	0.242	0.324	0.346	4	39	20	41	122

Rajai Davis:

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	331	0.265	0.310	0.377	5	32	26	18	62
CAIRO	432	0.261	0.309	0.378	7	58	33	24	86
ZiPS	400	0.268	0.310	0.375	6	39	35	21	73
RotoChamp	420	0.255	0.298	0.364	7	42	33	22	75
CBS Sports	300	0.267	0.308	0.380	5	30	21	18	58
ESPN	406	0.268	0.312	0.379	6	37	39	22	73
MLB.com	360	0.272	0.299	0.367	5	34	31	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	422	0.273	0.310	0.367	5	39	29	19	75

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	461	0.282	0.320	0.401	8	51	36	22	75
2015 Prediction	319	0.273	0.320	0.379	5	27	30	19	59

Fantasy Impact: Speed, speed and more speed.  The only reason to draft either Anthony Gose or Rajai Davis is the potential high stolen bases.  Both players are capable of stealing 30+ bases.  Anthony Gose is the sexier pick due to their respected places in their careers.  Davis is the safer pick due to his experience.  

Batting Order for 2015 - J.D. Should Bat 2nd

The bigger off-season moves for the Tigers seem to be done, with Max Scherzer returning the only thing left undecided (and I give that move about a 50/50 chance of actually happening).  The Tigers have resigned Victor Martinez to be their DH again; Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are all returning.  There will be some form of a platoon with Rajai Davis and newcomer Anthony Gose in CF while another potential platoon will happen at catcher with Alex Avila and prospect James McCann.  Jose Iglesias is (hopefully) finally healthy and will be the primary shortstop, like the Tigers envisioned when they gave up Avisail Garcia at the 2013 trade deadline.  Yoenis Cespedes is the big off-season acquisition bat and will be replacing Torii Hunter in the OF (although it's likely Cespedes will be playing LF and J.D. will be moving to RF).  

So what will the lineup look like?  A few things are set in stone, Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart will bat 3rd and 4th.  J.D. Martinez and Cespedes will be also be in the middle of the order (with one of them possibly batting 2nd).  Kinsler and/or Davis will likely be at the top and Iglesias will be at the bottom.  But what do the numbers say?  Since the Tigers are going to platoon at least 2 positions, I think there should be two distinct batting orders: one against righties and one against lefties.  

Vs. RHP:
2B Ian Kinsler (.273/.305/.417)
RF J.D. Martinez (.318/.357/.523)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.317/.373/.520)
DH Victor Martinez (.323/.402/.522)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.279/.311/.466)
3B Nick Castellanos (.266/.301/.401)
C Alex Avila (.215/.340/.380)
CF Anthony Gose (.238/.329/.312)
SS Jose Iglesias (.308/.354/.362*)

*All numbers are 2014 splits against RHP except for Iglesias, who missed all of the 2014 season.  So his splits are from 2013.  

The Tigers don't have a clear lead-off hitter here.  After placing Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, J.D. has the highest OBP remaining.  However, he's lacking the speed that a true lead-off hitter possesses and he has home run power that better suits the #2 position.  Avila has a high OBP, but again lacks speed.  Gose has a respectable OBP, but lacks experience.  Iglesias also has good numbers here, but it comes from a likely inflated BABIP and his numbers are surely going to drop after missing a whole year.  Therefore, Kinsler is the lead-off hitter by default.  Hopefully he's able to get his BB% back closer to his 8.9% career mark instead of the puny 4.0% he put up last year.  


Vs. LHP:
CF Rajai Davis (.356/.382/.557)
RF J.D. Martinez (.307/.362/.640)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.301/.364/.536)
DH Victor Martinez (.371/.430/.692)
2B Ian Kinsler (.281/.313/.427)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.199/.269/.397)
3B Nick Castellanos (.237/.319/.374)
C James McCann (.336/.396/.469*)
SS Jose Iglesias (.294/.341/.429*)

*Again, Iglesias' splits are from 2013 and James McCann's splits are from AAA.  Everyone else's splits are from the 2014 season.

The Tigers should have a much more potent lineup against LHP.  Davis has dramatic lefty/right splits, but his lefty splits are good enough that he should be leading off.  Martinez had consistent splits vs. lefties and righties in 2014, so hopefully he's able to carry that over for 2015.  V-Mart will likely not be able to duplicate his breakout year again, but should provide enough offense for the cleanup spot.  Cespedes had unusual number against LHP in 2014, but if he's able to revert back to career norms, then he should bat 5th instead of 6th.  James McCann had great numbers vs. lefites in AAA and will provide a perfect platoon for Avila, who hits righties well enough.  Again, Iglesias benefited from an inflated BABIP in 2014 and won't be able to hit this well after missing a whole year.

Brad Ausmus may want to go with a more consistent lineup.  Davis/Gose platoon might see the bulk share of games at lead-off with Ian Kinsler batting 2nd.  Martinez and Cespedes will then bat 5th and 6th respectively and then the bottom of the order consisting of Castellanos, Avila and Iglesias.  Or he might put DavisGose at the #9 spot for the "second lead-off position" (which I don't particularly agree with).  

One thing that I hoping for is J.D. Martinez batting 2nd.  It's the next natural position to place a Tigers hitter after Cabrera and V-Mart 3rd and 4th.  And going by "The Book," it's a much more important spot than previously assumed.  Ausmus may be inclined to put Cespedes there, but he just doesn't have the OBP that fits that position.  If J.D. Martinez is the real deal (and I think he is) then he needs to batting 2nd for the Tigers.