2015 Preseason Prediction #8 - J.D. Martinez

It seems like every contending team has a player or 2 to come out of nowhere and provide great value for the team.  That player for the Tigers last year was J.D. Martinez.  Acquired in late Spring Training after the Houston Astros released him, Martinez started the year in AAA, hit 10 HR in 17 games, got called up to the big league club and continued to rake for the rest of the season.  

When a player has struggled through parts of his first 3 years in the majors and then provides as much value as J.D. Martinez did, there is always skepticism about how long he can keep it up.  One can point to his .389 BABIP and see that he probably won't be able to hit as well in 2015 as he did in 2014.  

The following data is taken from FanGraphs:

BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
0.389	22.7%	40.5%	36.8%

Sometimes we can break this down further to see which batted ball contributed to the good fortune:

2014	LD AVG	GB AVG	FB AVG
J.D. Martinez	0.764	0.331	0.363
League Average	0.690	0.239	0.212

 

J.D. Martinez outhit the league in every batted ball category by a lot.  This isn't always a cause of concern; speedster players usually have a very high ground ball average since they are able to beat out a lot of infield singles.  J.D. did have 6 SB and 10 infield hits, so it could be concluded that he has slightly above average speed. However, there will be some regression in his BABIP.  

J.D. Martinez didn't quite have enough PA to qualify for the batting title.  So if I scale back the qualifier to 400 PA and rank every single season BABIP over the past 10 years, only one name appears twice on the first page - Ichiro Suzuki who had a .389 BABIP in 2007 and a .384 BABIP in 2009.  Even Austin Jackson, who is known to have a high BABIP, only accomplished a .380+ BABIP once (in his rookie season).  And J.D. doesn't have the speed of an Ichiro or A-Jax.  

If I regress J.D.'s BABIP to a more reasonable .340 range, his batting average regresses to around the .280 range  Still really good, but it falls about 35 points.  Regress the BABIP even further to .320 and his batting average falls to about .267.  You can see the trend.  I wouldn't expect J.D. to hit .300 again any time soon.  

What about his power?  

SLG	ISO	HR/FB
0.553	0.238	19.5%

Among everyone with at least 400 PA, J.D. finished 6th in slugging percentage, 13th in isolated power and T-9th in HR/FB ratio.  The real concern here is the HR/FB ratio, which usually regresses back to career norms after an anomaly.  The hard part is figuring out what J.D.'s career norm actually is. His career average is 13.6%, but that includes parts of three seasons where he hadn't really put everything together yet.  When Miguel Cabrera was hitting 40+ HR, his HR/FB ratio was around 23-25%, with the other years around 18-19% when he was hitting mid-30s home runs (until 2014 when it was 14% with only 25 HR).  Does J.D. Martinez really have the same power as 2008-11 Miguel Cabrera?  My gut tells me no.  

It's really easy to root for a guy like J.D. Martinez, especially when he is currently hitting .344/.417/.719 in Spring Training.  But the smart move here is to expect a regression all across the board as pitchers will have more scouting reports on J.D. and exploit his weaknesses more.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	534	0.273	0.322	0.463	22	79	6	37	139
CAIRO	460	0.274	0.324	0.469	19	54	5	30	121
ZiPS	487	0.283	0.328	0.483	21	90	5	32	126
RotoChamp	505	0.283	0.325	0.477	22	79	5	32	141
CBS Sports	550	0.278	0.320	0.504	28	91	5	34	149
ESPN	503	0.278	0.324	0.483	22	77	6	33	134
MLB.com	523	0.279	0.332	0.482	23	87	6	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (23)	547	0.282	0.330	0.475	23	85	5	39	150

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	441	0.315	0.358	0.553	23	76	6	30	126
2015 Prediction	556	0.257	0.309	0.423	19	79	8	39	157

Fantasy Impact: It's really hard to place a guy like J.D. Martinez after the year that he had.  Players like this tend to be overrated and taken a round or two higher than their actual value.  Right now, according to Mock Draft Central, J.D.'s average draft position is around 98 (middle of the 9th round in a standard 12-team league).  My strategy is usually to be conservative in breakout players and have someone else assume the risk and try to find this year's J.D. Martinez later on in the draft.  

Batting Order for 2015 - J.D. Should Bat 2nd

The bigger off-season moves for the Tigers seem to be done, with Max Scherzer returning the only thing left undecided (and I give that move about a 50/50 chance of actually happening).  The Tigers have resigned Victor Martinez to be their DH again; Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are all returning.  There will be some form of a platoon with Rajai Davis and newcomer Anthony Gose in CF while another potential platoon will happen at catcher with Alex Avila and prospect James McCann.  Jose Iglesias is (hopefully) finally healthy and will be the primary shortstop, like the Tigers envisioned when they gave up Avisail Garcia at the 2013 trade deadline.  Yoenis Cespedes is the big off-season acquisition bat and will be replacing Torii Hunter in the OF (although it's likely Cespedes will be playing LF and J.D. will be moving to RF).  

So what will the lineup look like?  A few things are set in stone, Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart will bat 3rd and 4th.  J.D. Martinez and Cespedes will be also be in the middle of the order (with one of them possibly batting 2nd).  Kinsler and/or Davis will likely be at the top and Iglesias will be at the bottom.  But what do the numbers say?  Since the Tigers are going to platoon at least 2 positions, I think there should be two distinct batting orders: one against righties and one against lefties.  

Vs. RHP:
2B Ian Kinsler (.273/.305/.417)
RF J.D. Martinez (.318/.357/.523)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.317/.373/.520)
DH Victor Martinez (.323/.402/.522)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.279/.311/.466)
3B Nick Castellanos (.266/.301/.401)
C Alex Avila (.215/.340/.380)
CF Anthony Gose (.238/.329/.312)
SS Jose Iglesias (.308/.354/.362*)

*All numbers are 2014 splits against RHP except for Iglesias, who missed all of the 2014 season.  So his splits are from 2013.  

The Tigers don't have a clear lead-off hitter here.  After placing Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, J.D. has the highest OBP remaining.  However, he's lacking the speed that a true lead-off hitter possesses and he has home run power that better suits the #2 position.  Avila has a high OBP, but again lacks speed.  Gose has a respectable OBP, but lacks experience.  Iglesias also has good numbers here, but it comes from a likely inflated BABIP and his numbers are surely going to drop after missing a whole year.  Therefore, Kinsler is the lead-off hitter by default.  Hopefully he's able to get his BB% back closer to his 8.9% career mark instead of the puny 4.0% he put up last year.  


Vs. LHP:
CF Rajai Davis (.356/.382/.557)
RF J.D. Martinez (.307/.362/.640)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.301/.364/.536)
DH Victor Martinez (.371/.430/.692)
2B Ian Kinsler (.281/.313/.427)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.199/.269/.397)
3B Nick Castellanos (.237/.319/.374)
C James McCann (.336/.396/.469*)
SS Jose Iglesias (.294/.341/.429*)

*Again, Iglesias' splits are from 2013 and James McCann's splits are from AAA.  Everyone else's splits are from the 2014 season.

The Tigers should have a much more potent lineup against LHP.  Davis has dramatic lefty/right splits, but his lefty splits are good enough that he should be leading off.  Martinez had consistent splits vs. lefties and righties in 2014, so hopefully he's able to carry that over for 2015.  V-Mart will likely not be able to duplicate his breakout year again, but should provide enough offense for the cleanup spot.  Cespedes had unusual number against LHP in 2014, but if he's able to revert back to career norms, then he should bat 5th instead of 6th.  James McCann had great numbers vs. lefites in AAA and will provide a perfect platoon for Avila, who hits righties well enough.  Again, Iglesias benefited from an inflated BABIP in 2014 and won't be able to hit this well after missing a whole year.

Brad Ausmus may want to go with a more consistent lineup.  Davis/Gose platoon might see the bulk share of games at lead-off with Ian Kinsler batting 2nd.  Martinez and Cespedes will then bat 5th and 6th respectively and then the bottom of the order consisting of Castellanos, Avila and Iglesias.  Or he might put DavisGose at the #9 spot for the "second lead-off position" (which I don't particularly agree with).  

One thing that I hoping for is J.D. Martinez batting 2nd.  It's the next natural position to place a Tigers hitter after Cabrera and V-Mart 3rd and 4th.  And going by "The Book," it's a much more important spot than previously assumed.  Ausmus may be inclined to put Cespedes there, but he just doesn't have the OBP that fits that position.  If J.D. Martinez is the real deal (and I think he is) then he needs to batting 2nd for the Tigers.