Miguel Cabrera had a great 2013 season. He led MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging percentage, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+. It was also a personal best for Cabrera in all of these stats except for on-base percentage, which was 6 points lower than his 2011 season. He also matched his career best in home runs, which he set the previous year in 2012 and was only 2 runs batted in short of his career best, which he also set in 2012. All of this led to a 2nd consecutive MVP award.
Miguel Cabrera's 192 wRC+ was the highest in baseball since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004 and the highest in the American League since Jason Giambi's 193 in 2001. Not only was Cabrera the best offensive player last year, but it could be argued that he had the best offensive year outside of Bonds since the turn of the century. Sometimes I think people underestimate just how good Cabrera was in 2013.
Unfortunately, there are signs that he probably won't be able to repeat his performance in 2014, with the biggest factor being his age. In the above link, it shows that there just aren't many examples of players having this good of a year after the age of 30. Not that reverting to a 170-175 wRC+ is anything bad.
Some batted ball data from Baseball Reference:
| LD | GB | FB | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2008
|
21.4%
|
42.3%
|
36.3%
|
20.4%
|
2009
|
23.4%
|
44.0%
|
32.7%
|
20.6%
|
2010
|
22.1%
|
40.6%
|
37.3%
|
22.1%
|
2011
|
22.1%
|
45.3%
|
32.6%
|
18.9%
|
2012
|
20.2%
|
42.6%
|
37.2%
|
22.3%
|
2013
|
26.8%
|
39.7%
|
33.5%
|
28.4%
|
And from FanGraphs:
| LD | GB | FB | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2008
|
19.6%
|
41.1%
|
39.3%
|
18.9%
|
2009
|
20.0%
|
43.2%
|
36.8%
|
18.3%
|
2010
|
18.9%
|
39.3%
|
41.7%
|
19.8%
|
2011
|
22.1%
|
44.1%
|
33.8%
|
18.2%
|
2012
|
21.7%
|
42.3%
|
36.0%
|
23.0%
|
2013
|
24.0%
|
38.7%
|
37.4%
|
25.4%
|
I only went as far back as 2008 to show his time as a Tiger. Both set of data show the same thing, Cabrera hit line drives at a higher rate than before and his home run to fly ball ratio was higher than ever before. A regression from both is likely and therefore his overall stats will likely go down. But again, it won't be a huge drop-off.
Experts' Predictions/Projections:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
558
|
0.325
|
0.418
|
0.594
|
37
|
115
|
3
|
88
|
94
|
Oliver
|
515
|
0.324
|
0.413
|
0.592
|
37
|
111
|
4
|
76
|
90
|
ZiPS
|
558
|
0.317
|
0.404
|
0.581
|
38
|
119
|
3
|
81
|
96
|
RotoChamp
|
550
|
0.324
|
0.417
|
0.596
|
38
|
113
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
CBS Sports
|
570
|
0.326
|
0.419
|
0.602
|
41
|
126
|
2
|
91
|
100
|
ESPN
|
595
|
0.328
|
0.413
|
0.608
|
44
|
127
|
3
|
85
|
99
|
MLB.com
|
615
|
0.332
|
0.413
|
0.592
|
41
|
130
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs'
Fans (64)
|
570
|
0.330
|
0.420
|
0.600
|
40
|
131
|
4
|
87
|
94
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013
Prediction
|
612
|
0.333
|
0.397
|
0.601
|
39
|
122
|
3
|
65
|
99
|
2013 Actual
|
555
|
0.348
|
0.442
|
0.636
|
44
|
137
|
3
|
90
|
94
|
2014
Prediction
|
561
|
0.332
|
0.430
|
0.585
|
35
|
114
|
3
|
96
|
96
|
Fantasy Impact: Just like last year, Cabrera and Mike Trout are going 1-2 overall. Cabrera gives you third base eligibility, (even though he'll be playing 1B this year), but Trout will give you stolen bases. You really couldn't got wrong with either one, so go with your Tiger bias and grab Cabrera if you can.
No comments:
Post a Comment