Thursday, February 27, 2014

2014 Preseason Prediction #1 – Miguel Cabrera

I kinda already started on Miguel Cabrera's prediction here.  

Miguel Cabrera had a great 2013 season.  He led MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging percentage, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+.  It was also a personal best for Cabrera in all of these stats except for on-base percentage, which was 6 points lower than his 2011 season.  He also matched his career best in home runs, which he set the previous year in 2012 and was only 2 runs batted in short of his career best, which he also set in 2012.  All of this led to a 2nd consecutive MVP award.  

Miguel Cabrera's 192 wRC+ was the highest in baseball since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004 and the highest in the American League since Jason Giambi's 193 in 2001.  Not only was Cabrera the best offensive player last year, but it could be argued that he had the best offensive year outside of Bonds since the turn of the century.  Sometimes I think people underestimate just how good Cabrera was in 2013.

Unfortunately, there are signs that he probably won't be able to repeat his performance in 2014, with the biggest factor being his age.  In the above link, it shows that there just aren't many examples of players having this good of a year after the age of 30.  Not that reverting to a 170-175 wRC+ is anything bad.  

Some batted ball data from Baseball Reference:


LD GB FB HR/FB
2008
21.4%
42.3%
36.3%
20.4%
2009
23.4%
44.0%
32.7%
20.6%
2010
22.1%
40.6%
37.3%
22.1%
2011
22.1%
45.3%
32.6%
18.9%
2012
20.2%
42.6%
37.2%
22.3%
2013
26.8%
39.7%
33.5%
28.4%

And from FanGraphs:

LD GB FB HR/FB
2008
19.6%
41.1%
39.3%
18.9%
2009
20.0%
43.2%
36.8%
18.3%
2010
18.9%
39.3%
41.7%
19.8%
2011
22.1%
44.1%
33.8%
18.2%
2012
21.7%
42.3%
36.0%
23.0%
2013
24.0%
38.7%
37.4%
25.4%

I only went as far back as 2008 to show his time as a Tiger.  Both set of data show the same thing, Cabrera hit line drives at a higher rate than before and his home run to fly ball ratio was higher than ever before.  A regression from both is likely and therefore his overall stats will likely go down.  But again, it won't be a huge drop-off.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
Steamer
558
0.325
0.418
0.594
37
115
3
88
94
Oliver
515
0.324
0.413
0.592
37
111
4
76
90
ZiPS
558
0.317
0.404
0.581
38
119
3
81
96
RotoChamp
550
0.324
0.417
0.596
38
113
3
-
-
CBS Sports
570
0.326
0.419
0.602
41
126
2
91
100
ESPN
595
0.328
0.413
0.608
44
127
3
85
99
MLB.com
615
0.332
0.413
0.592
41
130
3
-
-
FanGraphs' Fans (64)
570
0.330
0.420
0.600
40
131
4
87
94

My Prediction:

AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
2013 Prediction
612
0.333
0.397
0.601
39
122
3
65
99
2013 Actual
555
0.348
0.442
0.636
44
137
3
90
94
2014 Prediction
561
0.332
0.430
0.585
35
114
3
96
96

Fantasy Impact: Just like last year, Cabrera and Mike Trout are going 1-2 overall.  Cabrera gives you third base eligibility, (even though he'll be playing 1B this year), but Trout will give you stolen bases.  You really couldn't got wrong with either one, so go with your Tiger bias and grab Cabrera if you can.  

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