2014 Preseason Prediction #2 - Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander had a disappointing season last year by his standards.  He was only 1 game above a .500 record (13-12) and his ERA was near 3.50 after being around 2.50 the previous 2 years.  While he was able to pitch over 200 innings, he wasn't his typical workhorse self.  He failed to get to 220 innings and pitch at least 3 CG for the first time since 2008.  His innings pitched/games started was also the lowest since 2008.

At the age of 31, Verlander might be showing signs of a natural aging bell curve.  From 2009-2012, Verlander was dominant in strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, leading to an FIP of below 3 in each year.  Last year, his walks were raised and therefore, his FIP was above 3:

Year	SO%	BB%	HR%	FIP
2009	27.4%	6.4%	2.0%	2.80
2010	23.7%	7.7%	1.5%	2.97
2011	25.8%	5.9%	2.5%	2.99
2012	25.0%	6.3%	2.0%	2.94
2013	23.5%	8.1%	2.1%	3.28

There is an obvious sign of loss in velocity, according to Pitch f/x:

Year	FB Average  Velocity
2009	95.6
2010	95.5
2011	95.0
2012	94.7
2013	94.0

Lee Panas suggested that Verlander was adjusting to become more of a finesse pitcher instead of a power pitcher.  At the time that article was written, Verlander had a 3.90 ERA, a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 8.4% walk rate.  For the remaining 18 games, he had a 3.12 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate.  The improvement was most likely due to a regression in BABIP (going from a .347 mark in his first 16 games to a .294 mark in his last 18 games).  

One reason for the improved BABIP, might have been due to the acquisition of Jose Iglesias.  The Tigers pitching allowed the highest average on ground balls last year with a .270 average while the league average was at .240.  No question the Tigers improved defense will help the pitching staff this year, even Justin Verlander.  According to Baseball Reference:

	GB AVG	FB AVG	LD AVG
2011	0.213	0.145	0.685
2012	0.184	0.180	0.764
2013	0.293	0.157	0.687

Verlander's ground ball batting average against was up 109 points from the previous year (a trend from many of the Tigers pitchers).  An improved walk rate and better infield defense will get Verlander closer to the pitcher he once was.

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	192	14-10	3.62	1.21	179	57
Oliver	232	17-9	3.14	1.16	225	64
ZiPS	216 2/3	-	3.07	1.14	225	60
RotoChamp	194	14-8	3.39	1.21	188	59
CBS Sports	230	19-8	2.97	1.19	233	69
ESPN	209	15 W	3.23	1.17	190	61
MLB.com	215	16-9	3.35	1.16	210	56
FanGraphs' Fans (32)	226	17-8	3.06	1.14	221	64

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75
2014 Prediction	229	17-8	2.91	1.109	223	70

Obviously I'm going on the optimistic side here.  Here's hoping I'm not wrong.  

Fantasy Impact: Verlander is no longer going in the first 2 rounds of a standard draft and his injury has definitely hurt his average draft pick.  However, he has been ahead of schedule and  I believe he can still be a top 10 pitcher.  If you can get him in the 5th round, that would be really good value.