2014 Preseason Prediction #4 - Victor Martinez

It was hard to anticipate what to expect from Victor Martinez in 2013 after missing the whole 2012 season due to a torn ACL.  Former Tiger Scott Sizemore suffered the same injury in 2012 and only appeared in 2 games in 2013 before re-tearing it, causing him to miss the rest of the season.  Luckily for Martinez, he was able to stay healthy all year, and had a very Victor Martinez-like season, hitting .301/.355/.430 with 14 HR.  

However, it was a tale of half seasons for V-Mart, probably needing a few months to readjust to the league:

2013 Season	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	392	0.258	0.314	0.380	0.693
2nd Half	276	0.361	0.413	0.500	0.913

That .361 batting average led all of baseball in the 2nd half and was reminiscent to the type of hitter he was in his first year as a Tiger in 2011, when he batted .330 on the year.  Not to totally dismiss his first half last year, there are some similarities in his second half and his 2011 season:

	PA	BABIP	ISO	BB%	K%	HR%
2011 Season	595	0.343	0.141	7.7%	8.6%	2.0%
2nd Half of 2013	276	0.371	0.139	8.0%	6.5%	2.2%

V-Mart only hit for a BABIP as high as .340 once before 2011, back in 2006 when it was .341.  Could be an adjustment here for hitting in Comerica Park, therefore it's not out of the question for him to have a high BABIP again in 2014, although almost certainly not as high as .370.  His batted ball data has been pretty consistent throughout his whole career, but his line drive rate has been up a tick with the Tigers, further suggesting a slight change in approach.  V-Mart had a .184 ISO with the Red Sox and a .166 ISO with the Indians, so there's definitely a decline in power, probably a combination of getting old and hitting half his games at Comerica Park.  

So, what to expect for 2014?  There is certainly a luck factor in his second half last year, and he's going to be 35, so we have an age factor to consider.  He's also going to move up in the order, batting 4th instead of 5th.  Applying a BABIP of around .325-.330, a walk rate between 7-8%, a strikeout rate around 9% and an ISO of around .135 and a slight increase in RBI for hitting 4th, and the stats write themselves.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	524	0.293	0.354	0.445	15	74	2	50	59
Oliver	545	0.294	0.348	0.417	12	70	1	46	56
ZiPS	471	0.291	0.341	0.425	12	69	1	38	48
RotoChamp	519	0.295	0.354	0.435	13	75	1	-	-
CBS Sports	590	0.300	0.356	0.444	16	85	0	51	61
ESPN	586	0.300	0.352	0.440	16	94	0	50	60
MLB.com	585	0.304	0.358	0.424	13	81	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (29)	560	0.302	0.353	0.432	13	73	0	48	57

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62
2014 Prediction	564	0.309	0.360	0.441	13	91	0	48	59

Fantasy Impact:  V-Mart no longer has catcher eligibility, which hurts his overall value.  He's not going to hit for a ton of HR power nor is he going to steal bases.  He can only be used as a 1B or a DH, where there are plenty of other options to get 25-30 HR or 30-40 SB.  He'll only help you in batting average, and it's probably not worth a 1B or DH slot for that.  Unless you're in an AL-Only league, it's probably safe to pass on V-Mart this year.