2014 Preseason Prediction #11 - Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly had a fantastic year in relief last year, with a 2.37 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 76 innings.  When the Tigers traded Doug Fister to the Nationals, that opened a spot in the rotation for Smyly.  He was a starter all through the minors and even started 18 games at the Major League level in 2012.  However, there is a durability issue here; the most amount of innings he has pitched was 126 in 2011.  

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR%	FIP
As a Starter	95	3.79	1.21	22.3%	6.6%	3.0%	3.77
As a Reliever	80 1/3	2.96	1.12	26.8%	7.4%	1.2%	2.47

As with most pitchers, Smyly is much more effective as a reliever, but should still be good enough as a starter.  Smyly is still only 25, so he still has some time to adjust and improve if needed.  Such as improving his 5.3 innings/start.

Another area of adjusting is re-introducing his changeup, which he almost completely abandoned in relief last year.  According to Brooks Baseball, Smyly mainly throws two types of fastballs (4-seamer and cutter), a slider and, when he was starting, a changeup.  Having at least three pitches is ideal for any starter to keep hitters off balance while going through the batting order two or three times.  According to Brooks Baseball, Smyly threw 78 changeups in 2012, and all but 1 of them were against right-handed batters.  It was very ineffective as opposing batters got 4 hits in 7 AB, including  2 home runs and a triple.  Overall in his career:

	BAA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Vs. LHB	0.204	0.254	0.315	0.252
Vs. RHB	0.249	0.311	0.425	0.319

Being left-handed, Smyly does better against left-handed batters than right-handed batters.  There's nothing alarming here as a .319 wOBA against is perfectly reasonable.  However, having an effective changeup against right-handed batters can really take Smyly to the next level.  

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	125	9-7	3.92	1.29	110	43
Oliver	99	7-4	3.19	1.19	97	30
ZiPS	135	-	4.07	1.27	127	41
RotoChamp	134	9-6	3.69	1.27	124	42
CBS Sports	150	8-9	3.84	1.23	142	48
ESPN	168	12 W	3.91	1.27	149	54
MLB.com	179	10-9	3.72	1.28	168	58
FanGraphs' Fans (13)	161	10-9	3.75	1.21	147	46

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	76	6-0	2.37	1.039	81	17
2014 Prediction	153 1/3	9-9	3.70	1.213	140	44

Fantasy Impact:  Smyly is an interesting case.  Due to a good strikeout rate and a potential ERA below 4.00, Smyly should be hot commodity.  However, there is a risk because of durability issues and a full season workload as a starter.  He's a good draft pick at later rounds, but use him carefully.