| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010
|
675
|
0.293
|
0.345
|
0.400
|
0.107
|
0.329
|
101
|
2011
|
668
|
0.249
|
0.317
|
0.374
|
0.125
|
0.305
|
87
|
2012
|
617
|
0.300
|
0.377
|
0.479
|
0.179
|
0.371
|
134
|
2013
|
614
|
0.272
|
0.337
|
0.417
|
0.145
|
0.332
|
107
|
Jackson hit for a high average in his rookie year, but the lack of power only resulted in an average wRC+. In 2011, he had a sophomore slump, but added a little more power. In 2012, everything came together, high average plus power. This is the player that everyone envisions Jackson to be for most of his career. However, surrounding it with his other seasons, it looks more like a fluke than anything else. From 2010-2012, Jackson was a career .280/.346/.416 hitter with a 107 wRC+. This is almost exactly the same line he put up in 2013. Maybe, just maybe, 2013 is is true value.
Looking deeper into the stats, batted ball data from FanGraphs:
| BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2010
|
0.396
|
24.2%
|
48.4%
|
27.4%
|
2011
|
0.340
|
16.8%
|
47.1%
|
36.1%
|
2012
|
0.371
|
23.8%
|
42.2%
|
34.0%
|
2013
|
0.333
|
27.6%
|
41.7%
|
30.7%
|
Austin Jackson has always had a high BABIP. Since his rookie season, he is 4th in all of baseball with a .361 BABIP. He accomplishes this by beating out a lot of ground balls for base hits, therefore his batting average on ground balls is above average:
| GB AVG | |
|---|---|
2010
|
0.318
|
2011
|
0.298
|
2012
|
0.374
|
2013
|
0.243
|
2013 was the first year he didn't have a batting average on ground balls near or over .300, and his overall BABIP suffered because of it.
What is unusual is that 2013 was his best year hitting line drives (27.6%), and having a high LD rate usually correlates to a high BABIP. However, he was way below average on batting average on line drives:
| LD AVG | |
|---|---|
2010
|
0.755
|
2011
|
0.687
|
2012
|
0.704
|
2013
|
0.641
|
League batting average on line drives in 2013 was .690 and it usually hovers around .700 - .720. There could be a luck factor here in both the ground ball and line drive batting averages and if it corrects itself this year, he can get his batting average back to around .290 again.
The other thing of notice is his fly ball rate. If Jackson is going to hit for 20 or more home runs like some Tiger fans are wishing for, he's going to have to hit more fly balls than the 30% we saw in 2013. This is one reason why I'm not a big believer in Jackson developing a lot of power.
Finally, there are the stolen bases. Jackson stole 27 bases his rookie year and it looked like he would steal 30 bases for the next several years. However, the number kept dwindling, to 22 in 2011 to 12 in 2012 to only 8 in 2013. Most experts have him at around 10-15 this year. Some Tiger fans are going bold and saying he'll steal 30 that he came close to in his rookie year. I'm going to go bold the other way. Jackson hasn't led off all Spring Training, so he probably won't do it often, if at all during the regular season. If he's not at the top of the order, there really is no incentive for him to steal many bases. The Tigers have bought in players like Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis for this. Jackson's steals have fallen every year, so why not continue the trend? 5 steals. That's all I'm giving him this year. This is my big bold prediction this year.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
567
|
0.275
|
0.347
|
0.423
|
13
|
60
|
12
|
61
|
139
|
Oliver
|
538
|
0.270
|
0.337
|
0.405
|
11
|
62
|
10
|
53
|
131
|
ZiPS
|
588
|
0.262
|
0.335
|
0.412
|
14
|
54
|
13
|
62
|
156
|
RotoChamp
|
563
|
0.277
|
0.348
|
0.426
|
13
|
65
|
12
|
-
|
-
|
CBS Sports
|
595
|
0.279
|
0.346
|
0.440
|
15
|
58
|
10
|
61
|
135
|
ESPN
|
554
|
0.276
|
0.344
|
0.430
|
13
|
52
|
12
|
56
|
137
|
MLB.com
|
579
|
0.295
|
0.359
|
0.453
|
15
|
59
|
13
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs'
Fans (22)
|
564
|
0.280
|
0.352
|
0.447
|
14
|
71
|
16
|
61
|
133
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013
Prediction
|
592
|
0.280
|
0.356
|
0.432
|
12
|
51
|
20
|
67
|
154
|
2013 Actual
|
552
|
0.272
|
0.337
|
0.417
|
12
|
49
|
8
|
52
|
129
|
2014
Prediction
|
572
|
0.278
|
0.345
|
0.430
|
13
|
60
|
5
|
56
|
128
|
Fantasy Impact: Austin Jackson could make a fine #3 OF at around rounds 13-15. He doesn't do anything spectacular, but he could give you a high average, low double digit home runs and the potential for double digit steals.
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