2014 Preseason Prediction #7 - Austin Jackson

After having a career year in 2012 where Austin Jackson batted .300/.377/.479, he took a step back in 2013 and only batted .272/.337/.417.  Many Tiger fans were disappointed, but still feel that Jackson could have a breakout in 2014.  The thing about Jackson is that he's been very inconsistent:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
2010	675	0.293	0.345	0.400	0.107	0.329	101
2011	668	0.249	0.317	0.374	0.125	0.305	87
2012	617	0.300	0.377	0.479	0.179	0.371	134
2013	614	0.272	0.337	0.417	0.145	0.332	107

Jackson hit for a high average in his rookie year, but the lack of power only resulted in an average wRC+.  In 2011, he had a sophomore slump, but added a little more power.  In 2012, everything came together, high average plus power.  This is the player that everyone envisions Jackson to be for most of his career.  However, surrounding it with his other seasons, it looks more like a fluke than anything else.  From 2010-2012, Jackson was a career .280/.346/.416 hitter with a 107 wRC+.  This is almost exactly the same line he put up in 2013.  Maybe, just maybe, 2013 is is true value.

Looking deeper into the stats, batted ball data from FanGraphs:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2010	0.396	24.2%	48.4%	27.4%
2011	0.340	16.8%	47.1%	36.1%
2012	0.371	23.8%	42.2%	34.0%
2013	0.333	27.6%	41.7%	30.7%

Austin Jackson has always had a high BABIP.  Since his rookie season, he is 4th in all of baseball with a .361 BABIP.  He accomplishes this by beating out a lot of ground balls for base hits, therefore his batting average on ground balls is above average:

	GB AVG
2010	0.318
2011	0.298
2012	0.374
2013	0.243

2013 was the first year he didn't have a batting average on ground balls near or over .300, and his overall BABIP suffered because of it.  

What is unusual is that 2013 was his best year hitting line drives (27.6%), and having a high LD rate usually correlates to a high BABIP.  However, he was way below average on batting average on line drives:

	LD AVG
2010	0.755
2011	0.687
2012	0.704
2013	0.641

League batting average on line drives in 2013 was .690 and it usually hovers around .700 - .720.  There could be a luck factor here in both the ground ball and line drive batting averages and if it corrects itself this year, he can get his batting average back to around .290 again.  

The other thing of notice is his fly ball rate.  If Jackson is going to hit for 20 or more home runs like some Tiger fans are wishing for, he's going to have to hit more fly balls than the 30% we saw in 2013.  This is one reason why I'm not a big believer in Jackson developing a lot of power.

Finally, there are the stolen bases.  Jackson stole 27 bases his rookie year and it looked like he would steal 30 bases for the next several years.  However, the number kept dwindling, to 22 in 2011 to 12 in 2012 to only 8 in 2013.  Most experts have him at around 10-15 this year.  Some Tiger fans are going bold and saying he'll steal 30 that he came close to in his rookie year.  I'm going to go bold the other way.  Jackson hasn't led off all Spring Training, so he probably won't do it often, if at all during the regular season.  If he's not at the top of the order, there really is no incentive for him to steal many bases.  The Tigers have bought in players like Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis for this.  Jackson's steals have fallen every year, so why not continue the trend?  5 steals.  That's all I'm giving him this year.  This is my big bold prediction this year.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	567	0.275	0.347	0.423	13	60	12	61	139
Oliver	538	0.270	0.337	0.405	11	62	10	53	131
ZiPS	588	0.262	0.335	0.412	14	54	13	62	156
RotoChamp	563	0.277	0.348	0.426	13	65	12	-	-
CBS Sports	595	0.279	0.346	0.440	15	58	10	61	135
ESPN	554	0.276	0.344	0.430	13	52	12	56	137
MLB.com	579	0.295	0.359	0.453	15	59	13	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (22)	564	0.280	0.352	0.447	14	71	16	61	133

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154
2013 Actual	552	0.272	0.337	0.417	12	49	8	52	129
2014 Prediction	572	0.278	0.345	0.430	13	60	5	56	128

Fantasy Impact:  Austin Jackson could make a fine #3 OF at around rounds 13-15.  He doesn't do anything spectacular, but he could give you a high average, low double digit home runs and the potential for double digit steals.