Castellanos has always been young for the level that he was in. He just turned 22 earlier in March. To perform as well as he had in the minors against competition much older than him is a little remarkable. Castellanos had a 121 wRC+ in AAA last year, tied for 16th best in the International League. However, if we filter out everyone who is 26 years or older (an age where people tend to drop the "prospect" label), Castellanos moves up to 4th:
| Name | Age | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|
25
|
143
|
|
23
|
134
|
|
23
|
133
|
|
Nick Castellanos
|
21
|
121
|
23
|
121
|
Nick Castellanos is the youngest of this group, which is pretty good for his development. If he struggles too much at the ML level, the Tigers can send him down for more seasoning without the risk of him being a bust. At least not right away; they still have time on their side. This might very well happen with Castellanos as he tended to struggle in the first month or so after advancing to the next level during the minors. Hopefully his good Spring will carry over to the regular season and we don't have to worry about sending him down.
According to Minor League Central, Castellanos had a 9.1% walk rate and a 16.8% strikeout rate. Those were his best marks over his last 3 years in the minors, but he might struggle to maintain those in his first year in the Majors. Conservatively, I'll go with around a 6-6.5% walk rate and around a 20-22% strikeout rate for 2014. However, those numbers should improve as he matures.
Batted ball data is also available at Minor League Central, but should be taken with a grain of salt as it is with different minor league levels and it might not translate well to the majors:
| Level | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
A
|
0.401
|
19.5%
|
36.4%
|
38.7%
|
2012
|
A+/AA
|
0.384
|
24.0%
|
42.3%
|
30.9%
|
2013
|
AAA
|
0.307
|
22.4%
|
36.5%
|
37.2%
|
There first thing that sticks out is his high BABIP in 2011 and 2012, however that might just be a product of being a good hitter as it kinda normalized once he reached better competition in AAA. He has shown very good line drive rates and his fly ball rate increased from 2012 to 2013, which could be a good sign of home run power if he can keep it around 40% in 2014.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
495
|
0.269
|
0.315
|
0.399
|
11
|
58
|
5
|
32
|
95
|
Oliver
|
550
|
0.255
|
0.310
|
0.409
|
17
|
73
|
3
|
43
|
118
|
ZiPS
|
599
|
0.277
|
0.320
|
0.429
|
18
|
64
|
5
|
36
|
117
|
RotoChamp
|
465
|
0.262
|
0.314
|
0.396
|
11
|
51
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
CBS Sports
|
545
|
0.264
|
0.320
|
0.402
|
13
|
66
|
3
|
45
|
109
|
ESPN
|
457
|
0.239
|
0.299
|
0.365
|
11
|
44
|
4
|
38
|
107
|
MLB.com
|
513
|
0.255
|
0.320
|
0.398
|
13
|
76
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
FanGraphs'
Fans (21)
|
475
|
0.269
|
0.324
|
0.411
|
12
|
57
|
4
|
38
|
102
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013
Prediction
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2013 Actual
|
18
|
0.278
|
0.278
|
0.278
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
2014
Prediction
|
533
|
0.253
|
0.306
|
0.409
|
16
|
61
|
3
|
38
|
125
|
Fantasy Impact: Rookies are generally a high risk/high reward when it comes to fantasy baseball, and I'd put Nick Castellanos in that category. He could be one of the better options for a CI slot if that's the format you're in, however he won't get 3B eligibility right away. Having both 3B and OF eligibility could be a plus for flexibility purposes. In deep leagues, grabbing Castellanos in the later rounds could pay off greatly.
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