First, batted ball data from Baseball Reference:
| LD% | GB% | FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
19.5%
|
41.0%
|
39.5%
|
2012
|
18.8%
|
37.1%
|
44.2%
|
2013
|
19.1%
|
37.7%
|
43.3%
|
There's a noticeable shift from ground balls to flyballs going from 2011 to 2012. 2012 looks very similar to 2013, though.
Scherzer was 4th in MLB with a .196 batting average against, an improvement from .248 and .269 the previous 2 years. Here were his batting averages against by batted ball:
| LD AVG | GB AVG | FB AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.761
|
0.288
|
0.218
|
2012
|
0.733
|
0.337
|
0.246
|
2013
|
0.660
|
0.260
|
0.139
|
Scherzer didn't suffer from a high ground ball average that most of the other Tigers pitchers faced. In fact, Scherzer's BABIP was at .259 after being over .300 the last 2 years and a career .302 mark. There might be some regression here for 2014.
Scherzer primarly throws a 4-seam fastball, a change-up and slider. The following data is taken from Brooks Baseball:
| 4-Seamer | AB | BAA |
|---|---|---|
2011
|
446
|
0.296
|
2012
|
398
|
0.246
|
2013
|
418
|
0.201
|
His fastball has gotten better and better over the last couple of years.
| Change-up | AB | BAA |
|---|---|---|
2011
|
211
|
0.228
|
2012
|
177
|
0.283
|
2013
|
231
|
0.225
|
His change-up was about just as effective in 2013 as it was in 2011. There was a hiccup in 2012.
| Slider | AB | BAA |
|---|---|---|
2011
|
156
|
0.244
|
2012
|
145
|
0.186
|
2013
|
146
|
0.137
|
Just like his 4-seamer, his slider has also improved every year over the last couple of years.
Pitch usage, also using Brooks Baseball data:
| 4-Seamer | Sinker | Changeup | Slider | Curveball | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
61.4%
|
0.0%
|
20.5%
|
18.1%
|
0.0%
|
2012
|
59.9%
|
1.0%
|
19.7%
|
17.7%
|
1.7%
|
2013
|
56.7%
|
0.0%
|
21.1%
|
14.8%
|
7.4%
|
There are 2 things that I notice here, one is that his 4-seam fastball usage has gone down each year (although this hasn't effected his strikeouts as he can get a strikeout from any one of his pitches). Also, he has started to use a curveball in 2013, mostly against left-handed hitters, with much success. Left-handers hit his curveball at a .180 clip last year. If he can build upon this, there might not be as much of a regression in 2014. Overall:
| Vs. RHB | Vs. LHB | |
|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.262
|
0.281
|
2012
|
0.201
|
0.292
|
2013
|
0.165
|
0.222
|
It looks like much of Scherzer's success has come from his ability to mix up his pitches and the usage of a curveball to get left-handed hitters out. At 29 years old, there's reason to believe that can at least come close to repeating this for 2014.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
192
|
14-9
|
3.37
|
1.15
|
205
|
56
|
Oliver
|
200
|
14-8
|
3.28
|
1.16
|
217
|
55
|
ZiPS
|
193 2/3
|
-
|
3.35
|
1.14
|
165
|
55
|
RotoChamp
|
196
|
13-9
|
3.31
|
1.14
|
211
|
56
|
CBS Sports
|
210
|
18-8
|
3.04
|
1.12
|
229
|
54
|
ESPN
|
210
|
16 W
|
3.34
|
1.12
|
231
|
56
|
MLB.com
|
205
|
16-7
|
3.38
|
1.13
|
230
|
57
|
FanGraphs'
Fans (28)
|
210
|
16-8
|
3.21
|
1.12
|
238
|
58
|
My Prediction:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013
Prediction
|
196 1/3
|
17-7
|
3.39
|
1.228
|
206
|
59
|
2013 Actual
|
214 1/3
|
21-3
|
2.90
|
0.970
|
240
|
56
|
2014
Prediction
|
205 2/3
|
17-6
|
3.28
|
1.113
|
238
|
58
|
Fantasy Impact: Clayton Kershaw has been the first starting pitcher off the board. After that, Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg have been going in no particular order in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I personally like to wait for starting pitchers, so I won't be owning Scherzer this year (unlike last year). However, if you want him and can get him in the 3rd round, that's good value.
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