2014 Preseason Prediction #13 - Joe Nathan

Over the last decade, Joe Nathan has been one the best closers in baseball.  Since 2004, Nathan has a 2.14 ERA, 340  Saves and a 10.8 K/9.   A good argument could be made that only Mariano Rivera has been better over the last 10 years.  Nathan had one of his best years last year with the Rangers, with a 1.39 ERA, 43 saves and a 10.2 K/9.  

However, Nathan is 39 years old, so one has to wonder how much longer he can pitch at an elite level.  Also, with the small sample sizes relievers pitch in, a few bad games can ruin their stats, which makes it very hard to predict.  The good news is that Nathan has been very consistent aside from his 2011 season, the year after he had Tommy John surgery.  His last 2 years with the Rangers, he had a 2.09 ERA 0.98 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 40 saves/year.   

Nathan did have some good fortune last year.  His walk rate was over 3 BB/9 for the first time since he became a reliever, a sign that maybe his control isn't as good as it once was.  Also, his home run to fly ball rate was only 3%, the lowest of his career.  The four previous years, it was 9.1%, 9.6%, 11.5% and 13%.  It's reasonable to suggest that there's going to be some regression here.      Other batted ball data also shows some luck was involved:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.250	17.8%	34.9%	47.3%
2012	0.306	21.5%	45.4%	33.1%
2013	0.224	23.3%	32.0%	44.7%

Since becoming a reliever, his line drive rate has never been as high as it was in 2013, but his BABIP has never been as low as it was in 2013.  Having a high line drive rate and a low BABIP is pretty remarkable and unsustainable, even with very good defense.  I expect this to even out in 2014.  Also, his ground ball rate has never been as low as it was in 2013.  Since 2007, his ground ball rate has been above 40% every year expect his rebuilding 2011 and last year.  High ground ball rates are preferable since they minimize the potential of extra base hits.  If it's going to stay around 30% instead of 40%, that's a problem.  

I don't think Nathan will have a bad season in 2014, but given his age and these other stats, I don't think he'll have an ERA under 2.00 again.

Experts' Projection/Prediction:

	IP	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	65	35	3.03	1.15	66	18
Oliver	57	-	3.16	1.14	56	17
ZiPS	52 2/3	-	2.91	1.12	61	16
RotoChamp	62	35	2.90	1.08	68	20
CBS Sports	64	41	2.81	1.00	68	21
ESPN	62	42	2.76	1.02	67	16
MLB.com	63	40	2.57	1.05	69	19
FanGraphs' Fans (7)	68	41	2.39	1.07	78	20

 
My Prediction:

	IP	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	64 2/3	43	1.39	0.897	73	22
2014 Prediction	62 1/3	38	2.89	1.091	68	23

 
Fantasy Impact:  Mock Draft Central has his average draft position at 98, which is the 9th round of a standard 12-team league.  I always wait until about the 12th or 13th round to start drafting my closers since the potential loss of a good hitter or starter is too great.  I won't be drafting Nathan this year, but in the 9th round, that could be good value for him.