2014 Preseason Preciction #9 - Rick Porcello

Ever since his rookie year, it seems like everyone has been waiting for Rick Porcello's big breakout season.  He has been improving every year for the past three years, but last year he has taken some steps to show that he just might be capable of that breakout season:

	IP	BB%	K%	HR%	ERA	FIP
2011	182	5.9%	13.3%	2.3%	4.75	4.06
2012	176 1/3	5.6%	13.7%	2.0%	4.59	3.91
2013	177	5.7%	19.3%	2.4%	4.32	3.53

Porcello's ERA has dropped each year since 2011, however it has yet to match his lower FIP totals.  The huge improvement here is the strikeout rate going up  from mid-13% to over 19% in 2013.  

A high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate is a great combination, and Porcello had his highest ground ball rate in 2013:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.316	19.0%	51.4%	29.6%
2012	0.344	24.2%	53.2%	22.6%
2013	0.315	21.1%	55.3%	23.7%

One of Porcello's problems is that he can blow up and surrender a bunch of runs at once.  In 2013, Porcello gave up 9 ER in a game against the Angles, 8 ER in a game against the Red Sox and 7 ER in another game against the Angels.  This caused his LOB% to be below average and it explains why his ERA has been higher than his FIP:

	LOB%	League LOB%
2011	67.4%	72.5%
2012	69.0%	72.5%
2013	69.8%	73.5%

2 of those games the opposition loaded up with 5 left-handed hitters and left-handed hitters have been a problem for Porcello:

Vs. RHB	BAA	OPS
2011	0.248	0.650
2012	0.294	0.725
2013	0.239	0.603

 

Vs. LHB	BAA	OPS
2011	0.321	0.857
2012	0.325	0.883
2013	0.300	0.806

 

Porcello has made great strides to be the pitcher he was projected to be by increasing his strikeout rate and ground ball rate.  The next step would be to develop a pitch to get left-handed batters out, like Max Scherzer has developed his curveball.  

I am optimistic that Porcello can maintain his high ground ball rate.  I am optimistic in Porcello keeping his strikeout rate around 19-20%, given his improvement in his changeup and curveball.  However, I am not so optimistic in him getting better versus left-handed batters, so I'm only predicting a slight improvement for 2014.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	182	13-11	3.92	1.28	129	46
Oliver	182	11-9	3.91	1.35	124	42
ZiPS	175 2/3	-	4.35	1.34	129	41
RotoChamp	189	12-9	3.86	1.35	136	47
CBS Sports	180	11-11	4.10	1.28	140	44
ESPN	193	12 W	4.01	1.27	139	44
MLB.com	195	14-8	3.74	1.25	150	49
FanGraphs' Fans  (22)	175 2/3	13-9	3.84	1.27	152	46

 
My Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42
2014 Prediction	186	14-7	3.92	1.269	155	44

Fantasy Impact:  With the increase in strikeouts, Porcello finally has some fantasy value.  He could be picked up around round 20 in a standard 12-team league, and that would be good value, especially if he can get his ERA below 4.00.