2014 Preseason Prediction #5 - Ian Kinsler

The biggest move the Tigers made during the off-season was trading Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler.  The Tigers decided to trade power for speed and defense.  They traded a position of depth for a position of need.  This move allowed the Tigers to move Miguel Cabrera back to 1B and fill 3B with rookie Nick Castellanos.  However, it's always hard to figure out how a player will adjust to a new ballpark, especially one with extreme home/away splits like Ian Kinsler:

Home	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	0.296	0.405	0.528
2012	0.293	0.361	0.524
2013	0.292	0.371	0.408
Career	0.282	0.363	0.473

Away	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	0.214	0.302	0.428
2012	0.220	0.290	0.321
2013	0.263	0.317	0.418
Career	0.260	0.332	0.430

Mr. Pop-up might be an accurate description for Mr. Kinsler.  He has 90 infield fly balls since 2011, tied at 2nd most with Jimmy Rollins.  Only Mike Moustakas has more in the last 3 years with 93.  Over the last 2 years, his IFFB% is at 14.3%, 10th highest in baseball.  Kinsler is going to have to change his approach if he wants to be successful at Comerica Park.  He's going to have to focus on hitting line drives instead of fly balls in the hopes of hitting home runs.  Brad Ausmus has been hitting him lead-off most of Spring Training.  If he does becomes the everyday lead-off hitter during the regular season, this might just give him the mindset to focus on getting on base instead of trying for the long ball.  There is some good news in that his line drive rate has increased over the last few years:

Baseball-Reference	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	15.8%	48.2%	36.1%
2012	18.9%	37.8%	43.3%
2013	27.6%	37.5%	34.9%

FanGraphs	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	17.6%	35.3%	47.1%
2012	20.1%	37.6%	42.2%
2013	23.7%	36.9%	39.4%

Another thing to keep in mind is that Kinsler is going to be 32 years old this year, an age of where a player is typically ending his prime years.  I think there are going to be times this year where Kinsler will struggle, but end the season strong as he gets used to hitting at Comerica.  I'm going to be optimistic in my prediction, so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't reach these numbers.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	596	0.261	0.337	0.426	19	71	19	62	73
Oliver	535	0.273	0.338	0.406	12	63	15	49	58
ZiPS	557	0.271	0.344	0.420	15	68	16	57	69
RotoChamp	559	0.267	0.342	0.426	17	62	17	-	-
CBS Sports	645	0.264	0.335	0.417	18	68	14	69	76
ESPN	614	0.275	0.344	0.433	17	74	21	59	71
MLB.com	560	0.263	0.331	0.414	15	79	20	-	-
FanGraphs'  Fans (20)	601	0.270	0.339	0.411	15	67	20	57	69

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	545	0.277	0.344	0.413	13	72	15	51	59
2014 Prediction	595	0.266	0.335	0.425	18	70	17	57	66

Fantasy Impact: Second base is a weak position.  Kinsler gives you double digits in HR and SB while not killing you in batting average.  For this reason, Kinsler has been going early in drafts, around 5th or 6th round.  If you can get Kinsler there, that's good value.