There is still one skill that Avila did really well last year, his walk rate. Avila walked 11.6% of his plate appearances last year, which ranked 4th among catchers with at least 350 PA . Two catchers that were ahead of him, Joe Mauer (1B) and Carlos Santana (3B), are expected to play different positions in 2014.
Avila also showed moderate to average power last year. His isolated power (ISO) of .148 ranked 5th among regular Tiger starters, slightly better than Austin Jackson (.145) and way better than Victor Martinez (.129). The league average ISO was .143 in 2013.
Unfortunately, Avila also increased his strikeout rate from around 24% in 2011-2012 to almost 30% in 2013. This almost certainly contributed to his low batting average. Batted ball data from FanGraphs:
| BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.366
|
21.7%
|
37.8%
|
40.5%
|
2012
|
0.313
|
23.8%
|
46.4%
|
29.8%
|
2013
|
0.305
|
28.0%
|
42.2%
|
29.8%
|
Avila had an unsustainable BABIP in 2011, that regressed in 2012 and 2013. He also had a much higher fly ball rate in 2011, which helped contribute to his 19 HR that year. Along with the higher strikeouts, it looks like his low batting average resulted in just dumb luck as his line drive rate was at 28%, the highest of his career. According to FanGraphs, everyone who had at least 350 PA, only 2 players had a higher LD rate than Avila, Jarrod Saltalamacchia (29.8%) and James Loney (28.6%). Salty hit .273 and Loney hit .299 last year.
Avila also has had a reputation of getting beat up behind the plate, which could also factor into his less than stellar year. However, he did hit .303/.376/.500 with a 141 wRC+ in the 2nd half last year, which is an encouraging sign.
Avila still struggles against left-handed pitchers, though:
| Vs. LHP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.273
|
0.349
|
0.430
|
2012
|
0.176
|
0.304
|
0.235
|
2013
|
0.139
|
0.227
|
0.228
|
| Vs. RHP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.304
|
0.403
|
0.536
|
2012
|
0.262
|
0.367
|
0.429
|
2013
|
0.255
|
0.345
|
0.422
|
New manger Brad Ausmus is a former catcher, so he should know the best times to rest Avila so that he can stay healthy. This along with resting against tough lefties and possibly hitting more fly balls like he did in 2011, Avila could have a really nice year in 2014.
Experts' Projections/Predictions:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
359
|
0.242
|
0.341
|
0.401
|
12
|
48
|
2
|
53
|
106
|
Oliver
|
519
|
0.231
|
0.327
|
0.385
|
17
|
66
|
1
|
73
|
164
|
ZiPS
|
388
|
0.237
|
0.340
|
0.397
|
13
|
55
|
1
|
60
|
124
|
RotoChamp
|
369
|
0.249
|
0.345
|
0.412
|
12
|
49
|
2
|
||
CBS Sports
|
355
|
0.237
|
0.331
|
0.397
|
12
|
55
|
0
|
50
|
115
|
ESPN
|
477
|
0.252
|
0.347
|
0.407
|
15
|
67
|
1
|
70
|
149
|
MLB.com
|
365
|
0.266
|
0.353
|
0.441
|
14
|
51
|
1
|
||
FanGraphs'
Fans (18)
|
418
|
0.254
|
0.347
|
0.409
|
13
|
57
|
1
|
60
|
120
|
My Prediction:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013
Prediction
|
399
|
0.241
|
0.344
|
0.414
|
13
|
59
|
2
|
63
|
112
|
2013 Actual
|
330
|
0.227
|
0.317
|
0.376
|
11
|
47
|
0
|
44
|
112
|
2014
Prediction
|
342
|
0.246
|
0.342
|
0.409
|
12
|
50
|
1
|
50
|
102
|
Fantasy Impact: Mock Draft Central current has him at #294, which would be the last round of typical drafts. If you punt catcher and wait until the last possible moment to grab a catcher, you could do worse than Avila, who is primed for a bounce-back year. However, there are other catchers that might be more appealing around the time Avila is going, such as Jason Castro or Travis d'Arnaud.
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