2014 Preseason Prediction #8 - Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter has primarily batted 2nd the last two years and it has seemingly changed his approach.  His batting average has gone up, while his walk rate has decreased.  His power (ISO) has also decreased from his prime years, but that probably has more to do with getting older than anything else.

Hunter hit .300 for the first time in 2012 (after coming awfully close in 2009) and repeated that in 2013.  After having a walk rate of about 9.5% from 2009-2011, it was only at 6.5% in 2012, and even lower in 2013 at 4%.  Hunter still remained an effective hitter, but a different kind of hitter:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2011	649	0.262	0.336	0.429	9.6%	19.3%	0.337	115
2012	584	0.313	0.365	0.451	6.5%	22.8%	0.356	130
2013	652	0.304	0.334	0.465	4.0%	17.3%	0.346	117

Batted ball data from FanGraphs shows less fly balls and more ground balls over the last 2 years than recent previous years:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.297	21.0%	45.7%	33.3%
2012	0.389	22.6%	52.0%	25.4%
2013	0.344	19.9%	49.5%	30.6%

There is an obvious increase in BABIP over the last 2 years, mainly due to an increase in batting average on ground balls.  From first-hand observation, it looked like he tried to take advantage of the whole created between 2nd base and 1st base with the first baseman holding a runner on first base.  And he did it with great success: 

	GB AVG
2011	0.217
2012	0.327
2013	0.285

The league average on ground balls in 2011 was .231, in 2012 was .234 and last year it was .232.  The league average usually hovers around .230.  

Manager Brad Ausmus hasn't made clear on his regular batting order yet and has batted Torii Hunter in the middle of the order during some Spring Training games.  Will moving him in the batting order effect his approach?  Will he be more patient and start drawing more walks again in the #5 spot as opposed to the #2 spot?  Will he try to hit for more home run power batting fifth?  Will his batting average go down if he is removed from batting 2nd?  Or did he change his approach because he was getting older and his placement in the batting order was just a coincidence?  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	566	0.277	0.329	0.428	17	73	4	40	120
Oliver	556	0.268	0.309	0.399	13	67	3	30	109
ZiPS	544	0.287	0.325	0.427	14	76	4	27	111
RotoChamp	529	0.280	0.328	0.431	15	69	4	-	-
CBS Sports	610	0.274	0.318	0.418	17	76	3	40	139
ESPN	589	0.278	0.321	0.424	16	79	5	33	121
MLB.com	564	0.285	0.316	0.426	14	78	4	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (23)	550	0.289	0.333	0.425	14	64	4	33	108

My Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113
2014 Prediction	576	0.283	0.323	0.434	17	89	3	31	112

Fantasy Impact:  Depending on league settings, Hunter would make a fine #4 or #5 OF, drafted around round 17 or so.  In 3 OF leagues, I think your OF should be filled out before you think about Hunter and therefore he should be left alone, unless you waited and draft really late for your final outfield position or you're in a deep league (14-team or more).  His age will scare many potential owners away as he can fall off a cliff at any moment.  He should be drafted with caution.