2014 Preseason Prediction #6 - Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez had a career year last year, with a 2.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 0.4 HR/9.  All except the walk rate were career bests.  He won the American League ERA title and also led the league in HR/9.  He was good enough to finish 4th in Cy Young voting despite only making 29 starts and having just 182 IP.  Just like with Max Scherzer, what has Sanchez done different this year and can he repeat it in 2014?  

The biggest difference that led to his success was an increased strikeout rate and a lower HR rate:

	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP
2011	24.3%	7.7%	2.4%	3.67	3.35
2012	20.4%	5.9%	2.4%	3.86	3.53
2013	27.1%	7.2%	1.2%	2.57	2.39

Sanchez seemed to  not suffer from any BABIP luck and his batted ball data did not change much from recent years (data taken from Baseball-Reference):

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.317	21.9%	44.4%	33.7%
2012	0.313	20.6%	47.1%	32.3%
2013	0.309	23.6%	46.4%	30.0%

Pitch usage data from Brooks Baseball:

	4-Seamer	Sinker	Change-up	Slider	Curveball
2011	44.2%	9.3%	17.5%	21.4%	7.6%
2012	37.6%	9.8%	19.9%	22.8%	10.0%
2013	34.9%	12.0%	24.1%	22.1%	6.8%

 

There is a noticable trend in the decreasing amount of 4-Seam fastballs and an increasing numbers in change-ups.  The combination used in 2013 made his 4-Seam fastball a lot more effective:

4-Seamer	BAA	K%
2011	0.262	17.6%
2012	0.336	14.3%
2013	0.219	30.5%

Sanchez has also changed his release point on his fastball, and it added a couple of MPH.  If he can continue this for 2014, then he might be able to come close to matching his 2014 numbers.  

I do think his home run rate was a fluke and he'll go back to around a 10.5% HR/FB ratio that he showed in 2011-2012 instead of the 5.8% HR/FB he displayed in 2013.  I also think his strikeout rate will fall slightly.  Therefore, I don't think he'll lead the league in ERA again in 2014.

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	189	14-10	3.63	1.21	176	54
Oliver	191	13-8	3.49	1.24	184	53
ZiPS	184 1/3	-	3.52	1.23	186	52
RotoChamp	194	13-10	3.29	1.23	189	56
CBS Sports	195	14-9	3.18	1.21	210	61
ESPN	194	15 W	3.34	1.19	195	53
MLB.com	190	15-9	3.17	1.19	200	55
FanGraphs' Fans (24)	193	14-8	3.21	1.20	191	55

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54
2014 Prediction	191	14-7	3.39	1.246	200	60

Fantasy Impact:  Anibal Sanchez would be a very good #2 starter for any fantasy team (he wouldn't even be that bad of a #1 on some teams).  Mock Draft Central currently has him going in the 10th round.  This is very good value for him, and I'd even grab him a couple of rounds sooner.