Thursday, August 1, 2013

Streaking Tigers: Current Hot and Cold Hitting Steaks

A baseball season is a marathon, not a race.  Players go through many ups and downs throughout the season with the hopes that everything evens out by the end.  Here are three current hot and three current cold streaks as we head to the final 2 months of the season:

Hot Streaks:

Torii Hunter:
Date PA AVG OBP SLG HR K BB BABIP
6/16 - 7/31
161
0.358
0.366
0.629
9
28
4
0.378

Many people expected Hunter to regress some after the season he had in 2012, but he really hasn't. In a full season in 2012, Hunter hit .313/.365/.451 with a 130 wRC+ and so far in 2013, he has hit .316/.350/.481 with a 126 wRC+. His BABIP has fallen from the .389 mark he put up last year, as expected but it's still pretty high at .359.  This suggests that 2012 wasn't as big of a fluke as first indicated and that he has really changed his approach.  His walk rate continues to drop, at 4.2% in 2013 and only 2.5% during this hot streak.  Shockingly, he has gained some power that he lost last year with a .271 ISO during this streak.    

Victor Martinez:
Date PA AVG OBP SLG HR K BB BABIP
6/22 - 7/31
148
0.365
0.412
0.547
4
15
11
0.390

After missing the entire 2012 season due to an ACL injury, V-Mart's 2013 season started out slowly.  He only hit .221/.290/.274 in the month of April but gradually started improving as the season went on.  He's unlikely to continue hitting at a .390 BABIP pace but it looks like he's back to form.  With 9 HR on the year, he's primed to surpass the 12 he hit in 2011.

Alex Avila:
Date PA AVG OBP SLG HR K BB BABIP
6/16 - 7/31
81
0.286
0.375
0.486
3
21
9
0.370

It wasn't long ago when Tiger fans wanted Brayan Pena to take over primary catching duties (some probably still do!).  However, Alex Avila has started to heat up and his batting average has reached .200 for the first time since May 10th.  Similar to 2011, his BABIP is high (.366 in 2011 and .370 during this streak) and he's hitting for power (.211 ISO in 2011 and .200 during this streak).  Just like he wasn't able to sustain his numbers of 2011 into 2012, I don't expect his current hitting streak to continue, but he's not as bad as he was to start the season.  If Jhonny Peralta gets suspended, it should be Avila that moves to the 6th spot in the lineup.    

Cold Streaks:

Prince Fielder:
Date PA AVG OBP SLG HR K BB BABIP
6/20 - 7/31
156
0.220
0.295
0.348
5
24
15
0.232

Fielder started the year right where he left off last year with a OPS above or around .900 for most of the first half, but his OPS has fallen to under .800 at .795 on the year.  This streak has cause some Tiger fans to question his big contract as he's not performing up to expectations.  He's on pace to have 26 HR and a 118 wRC+, which would be his worst year since 2006 when he hit 28 HR and had a 110 wRC+.  At 29 years old, he shouldn't be on the decline yet, so hopefully he has another hot streak in him to finish the season.

Austin Jackson:
Date PA AVG OBP SLG HR K BB BABIP
6/26 - 7/31
146
0.208
0.283
0.362
3
39
13
0.270

It's unusual to see Jackson's BABIP this low.  He's currently at .332 on the season, which is the lowest he's put up in a season and below his career mark of .364.  Jackson seems to have long hot and cold streaks, so it's possible Jackson has another hot streak in him before the season is over.  It's important for a leadoff hitter like Jackson to get on base ahead of the big hitters, so hopefully he can finish the season strong.

Jose Iglesias:
Date PA AVG OBP SLG HR K BB BABIP
6/26 - 7/30
108
0.216
0.250
0.225
0
15
2
0.250

The newest Tiger had a career minor league stat line of .257/.307/.314.  So when he was hitting over .400 for the first half, many people weren't buying it and he has since came back down to Earth.  Unfortunately, what he's done during this cold streak is what we can expect for the rest of the season (if only slightly better).  He is still young, so there is still room for improvement as he reaches his prime years.  The Tigers acquired him for his Gold Glove potential anyway.  

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