Fielder for Kinsler Trade Reaction

In the 2011/2012 off-season, the Tigers shocked the baseball world an signed Prince Fielder to a $214 million contract.  Two years later, they shocked the baseball world again by trading him to the Texas Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler.  Here are a few thoughts.

Savings

Prince Fielder is owed $168 million for the remainder of his contract.  Ian Kinsler is owed at least $62 million for the remainder of his contract that could be worth $69 million if they exercise his 2018 option. The Tigers are also sending the Rangers $30 million.  That is a future savings of at least $69 million and as much as $76 million that they are now free to spend on other players.  Other players such as retaining near free agents Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer.  

The Tigers are only saving about $4 million for 2014 in this deal, so it's not an immediate savings.  But it's also not ruling out potential trade rumors of getting someone like Shin-Soo Choo, either.  Kinsler's contract is front-loaded.  He's due to make $16 million in each of the next two years that gets reduced to $14 in 2015 and $11 million in 2017.  This gives the tigers more flexibility as his contract nears its end.  

Defense

The Tigers defense greatly improved with this deal.  Prince Fielder was one of the worst defenders at 1B  over the last 3 years.  It is likely that Miguel Cabrera will now return to 1B, where he is a much better defender.  Comparing Cabrera's last 3 years at 1B to Fielder's last 3 years at 1B:

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Miguel Cabrera (2009-2011)	3922 1/3	-9	-4.6	0.758
Prince Fielder (2011-2013)	4111	-26	-10.2	0.790

It is likely that Cabrera will be worse than he was two years ago, simply because he's out of practice.  However, it's hard to imagine that he'll be worse than Fielder.  

This also means that Cabrera won't be displaying his awful defense at 3B anymore (and could potentially be able to stay healthier):

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Miguel Cabrera	2556 2/3	-22	-26.5	0.671

Over the last 2 years when Cabrera was the Tigers full-time 3B, he ranked dead last out of 19 qualified third basemen in all three of DRS, UZR and RZR.  It will not be hard to find someone to play better 3B defense.

As far as Kinsler's defense is concerned, here are his 2B stats for the last 3 years:

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Ian Kinsler	3629 1/3	30	14.7	0.826

Out of 18 qualifying players, Kinsler ranked 4th in DRS, 7th in DRS and 10th in RZR.  All about equal to what Omar Infante has put up.  

Offense

The Tigers are clearly going to lose some offense here.  Over the last 3 years:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	2068	0.262	0.341	0.438	9.7%	10.6%	0.342	109
Prince Fielder	2094	0.297	0.396	0.515	12.8%	14.7%	0.388	146

And it appears that Kinsler was taking advantage of Arlington being a hitter's park, as he has much better numbers at home than on the road.  Over the last 3 years, Kinsler's road numbers are not great:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	1031	0.231	0.303	0.387	8.1%	12.4%	0.304	90

This doesn't automatically mean Kinsler is going to have a poor performance at Comerica Park, but the stats are not in his favor.  

For what it's worth, Steamer already had their 2014 projections out.  Here is what they are projecting for Kinsler in 2014:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+	SB
Ian Kinsler	661	0.264	0.341	0.429	9.4%	10.8%	0.339	108	19

For those of you that want the Tigers to add more speed, Kinsler provides that.  He's averaged 22 SB over the last 3 years and Steamer is projecting 19 SB for 2014.

According to WAR, Kinsler has been worth 12.8 fWAR over the last 3 years and Fielder has been worth 12.0 fWAR.  Steamer is projecting a 3.3 fWAR for Kinsler in 2014 and 3.7 fWAR for Fielder.  In all intents and purposes, WAR is claiming that they are equal in value.  I'm not sure I completely buy that (especially with Kinsler moving away from Arlington), but they are probably closer than people think, when factoring in offense, defense and baserunning altogether. 

The Tigers Are Not Done

Not even addressing the closer situation, the Tigers are not done making moves.   They need to name a third baseman for 2014, even if it's moving prospect Nick Castellanos back to 3B.  They could also look to improve LF.  If and when they sign or trade for another offensive player, it could make this move even better since they wouldn't have had the means to do it while still having Fielder on the team.  

The Tigers had 3 1B/DH-type players and a hole at 2B.  They turned one of them into a 2B and saved a whole bunch of money in the process.  At first glance, this looks like another very good move by Dave Dombrowski.  

2013 Preseason Predictions Evaluated

C Alex Avila:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112
2013 Actual	330	0.227	0.317	0.376	11	47	0	44	112

Alex Avila started off very cold, hitting .177/.279/.293 in the first half.  But then got really hot, hitting .303/.376/.500 in the second half.  I still think injuries caused most of his problems in the beginning of the year and if he remains healthy next year, it could mean a breakout year.  

1B Prince Fielder

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	562	0.301	0.413	0.543	34	100	1	98	88
2013 Actual	624	0.279	0.362	0.457	25	106	1	75	117

Prince Fielder failed to hit 30 HR since his first full season in 2006.  Fielder's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all down from a year ago, and there's little indication that he will bounce back next year.  His decline started earlier than I anticipated. 

2B Omar Infante

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66
2013 Actual	453	0.318	0.345	0.450	10	51	5	20	44

Omar Infante had his best season to date, with a career high 117 wRC+ and 113 OPS+ over a full season.  At 31 years old, it's hard to imagine him duplicating this season, but it's also hard to imagine the Tigers not giving him a qualifying offer with the lack of 2B depth in Free Agency.  I'm glad I was wrong about him, although it wouldn't surprise me if he hit closer to my prediction in 2014.  

SS Jhonny Peralta

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.241	0.305	0.380	13	66	1	48	105
2013 Actual	409	0.303	0.358	0.457	11	55	3	35	98

The Biogenesis incident aside, Jhonny Peralta had a nice season in 2013 that more resembled his 2011 season than the 2012 season I predicted.  Although that came with a .374 BABIP, so his season could be described as "fluky."  

3B Miguel Cabrera

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	612	0.333	0.397	0.601	39	122	3	65	99
2013 Actual	555	0.348	0.442	0.636	44	137	3	90	94

The biggest difference between my prediction and what Miguel Cabrera did was the 13.8% walk rate, up from 9.5% from 2012.  He was able to get it back to previous levels as in 2010 it was 13.7% and in 2011 it was 15.7%.  Unfortunately, his injury caused him to only hit .278/.395/.333 in the last month of the season with only 1 HR and he miss several games in the 2nd half of the season.  While his 187 OPS+ and 192 wRC+ were the best mark of his career, it's does make me wonder how much better they'd be if he was able to hit for better than a .055 ISO the last month of the season.

LF Andy Dirks

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	410	0.276	0.324	0.422	11	48	5	27	70
2013 Actual	438	0.256	0.323	0.363	9	37	7	42	84

After hitting .322/.370/.487 in a half a year worth of games in 2012, I think several people were hopeful for a great breakout season from Andy Dirks that just didn't happen.  Even my conservative prediction wasn't conservative enough, expect for the walk rate, which exceeded my expectation.  

CF Austin Jackson

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154
2013 Actual	552	0.272	0.337	0.417	12	49	8	52	129

A truly disappointed season from Austin Jackson that ended up with him batting 8th during the last few games of the ALCS, which surprisingly made him start hitting again.  His .333 BABIP seemed pedestrian compared to the .396 mark he put up in his rookie season and the .371 mark he put up in 2012.  But the biggest surprise might be the stolen bases, which have gone down every year since stealing 27 in his rookie year.  I would go out on a limb and say he'll never reach 20 SB again, but given his age and a different managerial strategy next year, he could get close to 30 again.  Or he might only get 5 next year.  He's just that streaky of a player.  

RF Torii Hunter

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113

Torii Hunter found his power stroke again, at least back to his 2011 level.  After having a .167 ISO in 2011, it plummeted to .139 in 2012, but then shot right back up to .161 in 2013.  Hunter is a vastly different player than he was when he was younger.  While he never hit .300 during his first 13 full years of playing, he has now had back-to-back seasons of hitting over .300.  But that has come at the expense of a lower walk rate, which has reached rock bottom at only 4% in 2013.  It was at 6.5% in 2012 and as high as the mid-9% range in 2009-2011.    

DH Victor Martinez

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62

Finally a close prediction!  Like Avila, Victor Martinez started off slow, hitting .258/.314/.380 in the first half, but then heated right up, hitting .361/.413/.500 in the 2nd half.  After having the whole 2012 season off due to an injury, it's not that surprising that it took him awhile to get back in the groove.  When it was all said and done, his numbers were very similar to what I expected, except maybe a bit more playing time.

SP Justin Verlander

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75

After having two consecutive seasons of sub-3.00 ERA in 2011 and 2012, Justin Verlander reverted back to a mid-3.00 ERA in 2013 that he had in most of his previous seasons (except for his disappointed 2008 season).  The biggest surprise might have been his durability.  After averaging 7.38 IP/start in 2011 and 7.22 IP/start in 2012, Verlander only averaged 6.42 IP/start in 2013.  It is possible that he was holding back during the regular season so that he would be stronger in the post-season, in which he had a 0.39 ERA and averaged 7.67 innings in 3 post-season starts. 

SP Max Scherzer

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	196 1/3	17-7	3.39	1.228	206	56
2013 Actual	214 1/3	21-3	2.90	0.970	240	56

I anticipated a breakout year for Max Scherzer, but he took it one step further with a Cy Young worthy season.  It's unfortunate that he may become too expensive to keep.  

SP Anibal Sanchez

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54

My biggest fail.  I predicted a lack-luster year for Anibal Sanchez and all he does is win the ERA title.  How does a guy have a higher K/9 in the DH, American League (9.1) than in the DH-less, National League (7.7)?  I don't think Jeff Jones gets enough credit.  

SP Doug Fister

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	208	14-8	3.20	1.125	173	46
2013 Actual	208 2/3	14-9	3.67	1.308	159	44

Thank God for Doug Fister's consistency; at least I got one of the pitchers mostly right.  The big difference being 0.47 in ERA and 14 strikeouts.

SP Rick Porcello

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42

Rick Porcello made great strides in his development this year as I mention here.  The biggest improvement being his strikeout rate, which reached over 7 K/9 for the first time this year.