2013 Preseason Prediction #11 – Alex Avila

After having an all-star season in 2011, most people projected a regression from Alex Avila in 2012, citing his inflated .366 BABIP as the reason. Avila's BABIP did fall to .313 and so did the production. There have been a few constants for Avila, though, in some of his rate stats (using FanGraphs' numbers):

	BB	K	HR/FB
2010	10.8%	21.3%	9.0%
2011	13.2%	23.8%	13.8%
2012	14.1%	24.0%	11.4%

Not much difference is those numbers, especially the last 2 years. There isn't much difference in the HR/FB ratio which is surprising, since Avila had a massive decline in power.

	GB	FB	LD	BABIP	xBABIP
2010	43.5%	35.0%	21.5%	0.278	0.312
2011	37.8%	40.5%	21.7%	0.366	0.294
2012	46.4%	29.8%	23.8%	0.313	0.296

The huge shift of fly balls to ground balls in 2012 from the previous year could explain some of the loss of power. There are several xBABIP calculations out there. The one I'm using can be found here. The purpose of xBABIP is an attempt to quantify luck. It is calculated using batted ball data to show what a player's BABIP should look like. A higher xBABIP indicates "bad luck" and a lower xBABIP indicates "good luck."

It does show that Avila's 2011 was fluky and his true talent in batting average is probably closer to the .243 AVG in 2012, where his BABIP and xBABIP were more even. The power could return if he hits more fly balls like in 2011.

As far as 2013 is concerned, I expect something between his 2011 and 2012 as far as batted ball percentages are concerned. Therefore, I see an uptick in power, but he may never reach his 2011 numbers ever again.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	340	0.255	0.355	0.423	11	47	2	52	91
Oliver	416	0.250	0.341	0.428	16	59	2	56	115
ZiPS	403	0.248	0.351	0.407	13	56	2	62	116
Bill James	428	0.269	0.373	0.446	15	66	2	69	109
RotoChamp	445	0.254	0.364	0.422	14	59	2	74	122
CBS Sports	420	0.262	0.356	0.445	15	60	1	61	111
ESPN	395	0.261	0.363	0.430	13	61	2	64	110
MLB.com	445	0.283	0.387	0.443	13	71	3	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (22)	444	0.261	0.359	0.414	12	72	4	67	119

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	441	0.270	0.369	0.456	17	74	2	70	120
2012 Actual	367	0.243	0.352	0.384	9	48	2	61	104
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112

Fantasy Impact: Avila is a good bounce-back candidate, so if you plan on punting the catching position, Avila could be had late in the draft. According to Mock Draft Central, Avila is being taken 249 overall, which is the 21st round in a standard 12-team league. That's great value, if you ask me. Catchers are generally over-drafted as a whole, so this might be a good strategy to consider.