2013 Preseason Prediction #5 – Austin Jackson

Austin Jackson had a great rookie season, hitting .293/.345/.400. Critics claimed he would be unable to sustain his .396 BABIP. That held true as the following year he had a BABIP of only .340, which led to a batting line of .249/.317/.374. In 2012, he changed his batting stance by eliminating his leg kick and ended up hitting .300/.377/.479, again with an elevated BABIP of .371. Jackson may just be one of those players that has a high BABIP as he has a career mark of .370. It usually takes 3 years to get a good gauge and that's exactly how many years of experience that Jackson has. Since his 2012 and career BABIP are almost equal, the .370 BABIP could very well be his career norm.

According to FanGraphs:

	LD	GB	FB
2010	24.2%	48.4%	27.4%
2011	16.8%	47.1%	36.1%
2012	23.8%	42.2%	34.0%

I don't think it's any coincidence that Jackson improved once he got his line drive rate back up to around his 2010 number. As long as Jackson can sustain a LD rate of about 24%, he's a .300 hitter.

One of the reasons a player could sustain a high BABIP is by having good speed to beat out groundball hits and have a lot of infield singles.

	GB AVG	INF Hits	Bunts	Bunt Hits
2010	0.318	25	12	4
2011	0.298	24	28	11
2012	0.374	14	2	0

So Jackson has lowered his groundball rate about 5% from the previous year and had 10 less infield hits but increased his GB AVG by 76 points! That seems like an anomaly that will correct itself in 2013. This suggests that his BABIP had a little bit of luck in it in 2012. It's also surprising that he didn't attempt as many bunts in 2012.

Jackson made great strides in 2012, lowering his strikeout rate and increasing his walk and home run rates:

	K%	BB%	HR/FB
2010	25.2%	7.0%	3.3%
2011	27.1%	8.4%	6.9%
2012	21.7%	10.9%	11.4%

Jackson's plate discipline improvement has been the most impressive for me. He's not swinging out of the zone as much, 28.3% in 2010, 26.7% in 2011 and 25.3% in 2012. This means he's walking more and getting on base more - the most important skill for a lead-off hitter.

The power, I'm a little skeptical on. While it was always assumed he would gain power as he matures, I'm not sure if 11.4% HR/FB is his true talent. I'm going to predict it'll be closer to the 7% that he had in 2011. Now if he can duplicate that 11.4% in 2013, then I'll be a believer.

Lastly, there are the stolen bases. Jackson attempted 33 stolen bases in 2010 with an 82% success rate. In 2011 he attempted 27 stolen bases with an 81% success rate. And in 2012, he only attempted 21 stolen bases with an awful 57% success rate. I think 2012 was a fluke and he can get back to around a 81% success rate again. With about 25 attempts that'll give him around 20 stolen bases.

Experts' Prediction/Projection:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	627	0.277	0.348	0.420	13	67	14	66	163
Oliver	544	0.268	0.345	0.417	14	65	19	61	150
ZiPS	586	0.263	0.342	0.418	15	57	16	68	160
Bill James	563	0.293	0.363	0.442	12	61	17	60	135
RotoChamp	600	0.268	0.346	0.423	14	59	18	68	157
CBS Sports	580	0.283	0.349	0.453	15	57	16	59	149
ESPN	624	0.282	0.357	0.436	15	62	24	71	170
MLB.com	619	0.275	0.348	0.430	18	75	21	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (43)	623	0.286	0.358	0.443	15	69	22	68	152

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	581	0.269	0.336	0.386	7	42	24	57	172
2012 Actual	543	0.300	0.377	0.479	16	66	12	67	134
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154

Fantasy Impact: According to Mock Draft Cental, Jackson has an average draft pick of 101, which puts him in the 9th round on a 12-team league. That seems about right. With a high average, 100 runs scored and double digits in HR and SB, Jackson is a good 3rd OF to own.