2013 Preseason Prediction #2 – Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander has been very consistent over the last few years.

	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
2010	23.7%	7.7%	1.5%	3.37	2.97	3.52
2011	25.8%	5.9%	2.5%	2.40	2.99	3.12
2012	25.0%	6.3%	2.0%	2.64	2.94	3.31

His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) has been nearly unchanged since 2010. FIP uses strikeouts, walks and home runs in its calculation. In 2011-12, Verlander increased his strikeout rate, lowered his walk rate and increased him home run rate from 2010, but it still resulted in about the same FIP. The one stat that did change was his ERA. Did this shift in stats result in a lower ERA or was his 2010 season simply unlucky? Probably a little bit of both.

		FanGraphs			Baseball-Reference
	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	LD%	GB%	FB%
2010	0.286	18.7%	41.0%	40.3%	21.3%	41.5%	37.3%
2011	0.236	17.7%	40.2%	42.1%	17.2%	41.2%	41.6%
2012	0.273	22.2%	42.3%	35.6%	19.8%	42.4%	37.8%

In 2011, Verlander had a BABIP of .236, which he proved was unsustainable as the following year it was .273, more in line with his career of .284. Looking at both FanGraphs' and Baseball-Reference's batted ball data, there are some differences on how they classify line drives and fly balls, but his ground ball rate has remained very consistent at around 41-42%.

Then there's the defense. The addition of Torii Hunter replacing Brennan Boesch and having Omar Infante for a full season should help not only Verlander but all of the Tigers pitchers. However, it's likely that Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will still be below average on defense.

Now how does this all translate to runs? How many earned runs will Verlander give up this year? Well a lot of that has to do with timing. Before 2011, Verlander's left on base percentage (LOB%) has been right around 72%. In 2011, it was 80.3% and in 2012 it was at 76.4%. If he can continue to leave men on base at an above average rate, then his ERA should continue to stay at around 2.50 (given everything else remains consistent). If he reverts back to 72% again, then his ERA will look more like his FIP of around 2.95. I'm going to split the difference and say he'll have a 2.77 ERA.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	223	17-7	3.37	1.16	215	60
Oliver	240	20-7	2.59	1.05	230	60
ZiPS	221 1/3	17-8	3.09	1.10	219	58
Bill James	231	18-8	3.00	1.10	220	58
RotoChamp	215	18-8	2.72	1.04	216	54
CBS Sports	240	19-7	2.70	1.08	237	64
ESPN	234	20 W	2.96	1.09	240	61
MLB.com	236	20-7	2.90	1.06	236	59
FanGraphs' Fans (52)	221 1/3	17-8	3.09	1.07	233	57

Update: 4/1
My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2012 Prediction	237 2/3	20-7	2.97	1.069	249	58
2012 Actual	238 1/3	17-8	2.64	1.057	239	60
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59

Fantasy Impact : I've noticed that Verlander has been one of the first 3 starting pitchers taken, along with Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw in the late 1st round to 2nd round. I don't really see much difference between Verlander and Kershaw; both will give about the same value. Strasburg is the risk, but could pay off nicely. My personal draft strategy is to not take a pitcher in the first few rounds, so I will not be owning Verlander this year, but he's definitely worth a 2nd round pick.