2013 Preseason Prediction #7 – Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter had a very good season in 2012, hitting .313/.365/.451 with the highest wRC+ of his career at 130. The general consensus is that he played above his talent level and that he'll regress some in 2013. Looking closely at his stats, his 2012 could be labeled as a fluke as he did many things out of the ordinary of what a typical Torii Hunter season should look like.

I'm using FanGraphs' numbers here:

	BABIP	GB	FB	LD
2010	0.307	48.1%	33.6%	18.3%
2011	0.297	45.7%	33.3%	21.0%
2012	0.389	52.0%	25.4%	22.6%

The noticeable difference is the inflated BABIP and the shift of fly balls into ground balls. Hunter had a batting average of .327 on ground balls and, according to an article on Beyond the Boxscore, resulted in about 19 "lucky" hits, giving him a batting line of .277/.332/.416 without those hits.

The other red flags on Hunter are the walk rates, strikeout rates and power:

	BB	K	ISO	HR/FB
2010	9.4%	16.4%	0.183	14.6%
2011	9.6%	19.3%	0.167	15.2%
2012	6.5%	22.8%	0.139	16.0%

Hunter has been able to have a walk rate of about 9.5% from 2009-2011. Then in 2012, it dropped around 3% (not good for someone that's projected to be a #2 hitter). The last time Hunter's strikeout rate was over 20% was in 2001. Lastly, Hunter's ISO has been declining every year since 2010. The interesting thing is that his HR/FB ratio isn't a red flag; the reason he didn't hit 20 HR last year was because he hit too many ground balls and not enough fly balls.

Given that this will be Hunter's age 37 year and the fact that he over-performed in 2012, mostly everyone is expecting a regression. How much, though? Will Hunter be able to get his walk rate back up? Will he be able to get his fly ball rate back up (and conversely his ground ball rate back down) and as a result, hit more homeruns? Or, as Hunter has now exited his prime, is this the new normal for him? Obviously I don't have an answer to these questions and I can just guess. If this is the new normal for him and he regresses both because of his age and luck, 2013 might look like a disappointing season.

It's a good thing that Hunter's defense will likely not regress and his overall value will be welcomed as a replacement for Brennan Boesch .

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	480	0.270	0.335	0.430	16	65	4	43	109
Oliver	532	0.250	0.322	0.391	16	66	7	52	128
ZiPS	509	0.287	0.346	0.438	18	84	6	40	115
Bill James	558	0.271	0.336	0.428	19	84	8	49	130
RotoChamp	535	0.271	0.338	0.422	18	65	7	47	125
CBS Sports	590	0.264	0.327	0.420	21	82	7	55	137
ESPN	560	0.286	0.352	0.452	22	92	8	52	122
MLB.com	544	0.283	0.329	0.439	20	89	9	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (43)	547	0.280	0.338	0.413	16	78	5	44	121

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012 Actual	534	0.313	0.365	0.451	16	92	9	38	133
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129

Fantasy Impact: If my prediction holds true, Hunter becomes a dime a dozen outfielder for fantasy. He'll be owned as a bench outfielder for insurance in case of an injury to a starter. In this case, he should be taken in the middle to late rounds. If he does bounce back and hit 20 HR again, he's more of a 3rd outfielder and should be taken around the same time as Austin Jackson . Given his age, it's probably not a risk worth taking.