2013 Preseason Prediction #12 – Omar Infante

Omar Infante is boring. Boring in that he's a consistently average player and at 31 years old he isn't young enough to get any better, yet not old enough to start a massive decline. The last 2 years, he's combined to hit .275/.308/.400 and his career average is almost identical at .275/.315/.397.

	PA	BB	K	BABIP	AVG	ISO
2010	506	5.7%	12.3%	0.355	0.321	0.096
2011	640	5.3%	10.5%	0.298	0.276	0.105
2012 (Marlins)	347	3.5%	12.1%	0.307	0.287	0.155
2012 (Tigers)	241	3.7%	9.5%	0.269	0.257	0.128

A few things stick out. In 2010, Infante had an inflated BABIP which resulted in a high average, which regressed in the next two years. The walk rate fell about 2% in 2012 from the previous two years. That's worrisome, but it could just be a fluke and bounce back in 2013. Finally, the isolated power (SLG-AVG) was inflated in 2012, which could regress to around .100 like it was in 2010-11.

Infante's numbers in Detroit did take a dive, but that could be explained by bad luck in BABIP as it was around 40 points lower than it was in Miami. If he can have a BABIP of around .300, then he is a .275 hitter.

Lastly, Infante had 17 stolen bases in 2012 (10 with the Marlins, 7 with the Tigers). The only other time he hit double digits in stolen bases was in 2004 when he had 13 SB. The three previous years his stolen base numbers were 2 in 2009, 7 in 2010 and 4 in 2011. I think it's safe to say that he'll have a stolen base number of around 5 in 2013.

Overall, I think the switch from the National League to the American League will see a slight decline in production.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	437	0.282	0.319	0.405	8	52	8	24	52
Oliver	525	0.278	0.320	0.387	8	57	11	32	68
ZiPS	522	0.278	0.311	0.387	9	51	9	24	59
Bill James	507	0.282	0.320	0.400	9	51	11	27	63
RotoChamp	520	0.298	0.332	0.427	10	70	10	25	62
CBS Sports	570	0.270	0.311	0.396	10	49	11	34	69
ESPN	560	0.280	0.313	0.405	10	53	11	28	64
MLB.com	546	0.280	0.320	0.408	10	59	10	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (19)	535	0.275	0.304	0.389	8	58	11	24	66

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012 Actual	554	0.274	0.300	0.419	12	69	17	21	65
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66

Fantasy Impact: Unless you're in a deep league or an AL-Only league, Infante should probably be a non-factor. Infante just doesn't do anything well enough to warrant a spot on a fantasy team.