| IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
610
|
3.81
|
1.24
|
13.8%
|
5.0%
|
3.74
|
4.12
|
|
216
|
2.95
|
1.09
|
20.5%
|
4.4%
|
3.14
|
3.19
|
The biggest difference is the strikeout rate; Fister has struck out more batters with the Tigers and that's resulted in a lower ERA and FIP. He has also slightly lowered his walk rate. There could be several different factors in the change, including ballparks, pitching coaches, etc. It's also possible that he's just simply getting better as he's getting older.
Using FanGraphs' numbers:
| BABIP | LD | GB | FB | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.290
|
18.9%
|
45.9%
|
35.2%
|
7.0%
|
|
0.280
|
22.4%
|
50.8%
|
26.8%
|
11.4%
|
There's a slight shift of fly balls to ground balls. It's also surprising to see such a high HR/FB ratio given the lower FB rate, which could correct itself next year.
The one disappointing thing from Fister last year was that he missed some time due to injury. When he came back, he struggled a little, which inflated his ERA. However, his last 15 starts were fantastic:
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
101
|
2.67
|
1.04
|
89
|
22
|
If Fister can keep a 20% strikeout rate, a GB rate around 50% and he can lower his HR/FB ratio like it was with the Mariners, we could see an ERA below 3.00. Although a lot of things would have to go right in order for that to happen.
Experts' Predictions/Projections:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
179
|
13-7
|
3.83
|
1.23
|
128
|
39
|
Oliver
|
187
|
14-7
|
3.09
|
1.16
|
127
|
35
|
ZiPS
|
171
|
12-9
|
3.95
|
1.24
|
117
|
34
|
Bill James
|
212
|
13-10
|
3.69
|
1.25
|
147
|
43
|
RotoChamp
|
200
|
14-7
|
3.24
|
1.17
|
152
|
41
|
CBS Sports
|
210
|
13-10
|
3.60
|
1.23
|
163
|
42
|
ESPN
|
211
|
11 W
|
3.33
|
1.18
|
156
|
43
|
MLB.com
|
208
|
13-10
|
3.42
|
1.15
|
161
|
42
|
FanGraphs' Fans (25)
|
198
|
13-9
|
3.45
|
1.16
|
160
|
42
|
My Prediction:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 Prediction
|
216
|
15-9
|
3.33
|
1.120
|
167
|
40
|
2012 Actual
|
161 2/3
|
10-10
|
3.45
|
1.194
|
137
|
37
|
2013 Prediction
|
208
|
14-8
|
3.20
|
1.125
|
173
|
46
|
Fantasy Impact: Fister won't get the strikeouts like Max Scherzer , but he'll have a low ERA and WHIP and that's got value. According to Mock Draft Central, Fister has an average draft position of 183, which is the 16th round in a 12-team league. Personally, I'd be happy taking him in the 13th or 14th round as my 3rd or 4th starting pitcher. The risk of him getting injured again is probably why he's this low.
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