| GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010
|
5/30-9/29
|
23
|
153 2/3
|
2.46
|
1.13
|
9.25
|
3.16
|
2012
|
6/17-10/3
|
19
|
117 1/3
|
2.53
|
1.08
|
10.97
|
2.38
|
The issue, of course, is consistency. Scherzer has a lot of moving parts during his delivery and if he's off, the results are horrible. During 2010, he had to go back to AAA in order to correct his delivery. When he came back, he was dominant as shown above. If he can duplicate one of these stretches over a full season, then he will be a Cy Young candidate.
There is some evidence that Scherzer was a little unlucky last year. Using baseball-reference's numbers:
| BABIP | GB | FB | LD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2010
|
0.300
|
40.9%
|
37.3%
|
21.8%
|
2011
|
0.288
|
41.0%
|
39.5%
|
19.5%
|
2012
|
0.337
|
37.1%
|
44.2%
|
18.8%
|
Scherzer's BABIP was the 2nd highest in all of baseball, right behind teammate Rick Porcello 's .345. Defense could've played a factor in that high BABIP, but a lot of it could've just been unfortunate balls falling in for base hits. In Scherzer's first 13 games, his BABIP was a ridiculous .383, with a 19% LD rate and a 5.76 ERA. In his final 19 games, Scherzer's BABIP was a more reasonable .307 with an 18% LD rate and, as shown above, he had a 2.53 ERA. With only a 1% LD rate difference, he was able to decrease his BABIP by 76 points! That screams that his first half was a fluke.
The big change in 2012 was the shift of ground balls to fly balls. If this holds true, then there could be some positive results next year with Torii Hunter replacing Brennan Boesch in right field. Having Omar Infante play 2B all season will also help, as well as regression with batting average on ground balls:
| GB AVG | FB AVG | LD AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|
0.238
|
0.184
|
0.719
|
|
0.288
|
0.218
|
0.761
|
|
0.337
|
0.246
|
0.733
|
The big story, though, are the strikeouts. Scherzer led the league most of the year with 231 strikeouts (until teammate Justin Verlander overtook him at the end of the year) and in K/9 at 11.1. That was a big factor in him having a 3.27 FIP (T-10th in MLB) and a 3.23 xFIP (T-6 th in MLB). Scherzer also had a league-leading 2.99 SIERA. While I don't think Scherzer will repeat the strikeouts, his peripherals look great with above average K rate and a BB/9 below 3 the last two years.
This might be wishful thinking, but going forward, everything is in place for a breakout year for Scherzer. He is right in his prime at 28 years old, the defense behind him is better than it was at the beginning of last year and he has great defense independent stats. What will hold him back is consistently. If he can minimize the bad starts and be more consistent, then the Tigers will have one of the best 1-2 punches in the rotation in all of baseball.
Experts' Predictions/Projections:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steamer
|
181
|
15-7
|
3.44
|
1.18
|
185
|
56
|
Oliver
|
195
|
13-9
|
3.55
|
1.26
|
200
|
61
|
ZiPS
|
186 2/3
|
13-10
|
3.95
|
1.27
|
196
|
58
|
Bill James
|
191
|
12-9
|
3.72
|
1.26
|
198
|
60
|
RotoChamp
|
200
|
13-9
|
3.60
|
1.30
|
221
|
64
|
CBS Sports
|
195
|
17-8
|
3.42
|
1.26
|
223
|
65
|
ESPN
|
197
|
16 W
|
3.79
|
1.20
|
207
|
59
|
MLB.com
|
192
|
17-6
|
3.66
|
1.23
|
224
|
61
|
FanGraphs' Fans (32)
|
199
|
16-9
|
3.48
|
1.18
|
220
|
58
|
My Prediction:
| IP | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 Prediction
|
201
|
15-7
|
3.63
|
1.249
|
186
|
57
|
2012 Actual
|
187 2/3
|
16-7
|
3.74
|
1.274
|
231
|
60
|
2013 Prediction
|
196 1/3
|
17-7
|
3.39
|
1.228
|
206
|
59
|
Fantasy Impact: According to Mock Draft Central, Scherzer's average draft position is at 93, which puts him in the 8th round in a 12-team league. Personally, I'm targeting him in the 7th round. Obviously the strikeouts are the big prize with Scherzer, but if he can lower his ERA and WHIP, he's a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher, if he isn't already there.
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