Saturday, March 9, 2013

2013 Preseason Prediction #6 – Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer has teased Tiger fans on how good he can be during two separate stretches:

GS IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
2010
5/30-9/29
23
153 2/3
2.46
1.13
9.25
3.16
2012
6/17-10/3
19
117 1/3
2.53
1.08
10.97
2.38

The issue, of course, is consistency. Scherzer has a lot of moving parts during his delivery and if he's off, the results are horrible. During 2010, he had to go back to AAA in order to correct his delivery. When he came back, he was dominant as shown above. If he can duplicate one of these stretches over a full season, then he will be a Cy Young candidate.

There is some evidence that Scherzer was a little unlucky last year. Using baseball-reference's numbers:

BABIP GB FB LD
2010
0.300
40.9%
37.3%
21.8%
2011
0.288
41.0%
39.5%
19.5%
2012
0.337
37.1%
44.2%
18.8%

Scherzer's BABIP was the 2nd highest in all of baseball, right behind teammate Rick Porcello 's .345. Defense could've played a factor in that high BABIP, but a lot of it could've just been unfortunate balls falling in for base hits. In Scherzer's first 13 games, his BABIP was a ridiculous .383, with a 19% LD rate and a 5.76 ERA. In his final 19 games, Scherzer's BABIP was a more reasonable .307 with an 18% LD rate and, as shown above, he had a 2.53 ERA. With only a 1% LD rate difference, he was able to decrease his BABIP by 76 points! That screams that his first half was a fluke.

The big change in 2012 was the shift of ground balls to fly balls. If this holds true, then there could be some positive results next year with Torii Hunter replacing Brennan Boesch in right field. Having Omar Infante play 2B all season will also help, as well as regression with batting average on ground balls:

GB AVG FB AVG LD AVG
0.238
0.184
0.719
0.288
0.218
0.761
0.337
0.246
0.733

The big story, though, are the strikeouts. Scherzer led the league most of the year with 231 strikeouts (until teammate Justin Verlander overtook him at the end of the year) and in K/9 at 11.1. That was a big factor in him having a 3.27 FIP (T-10th in MLB) and a 3.23 xFIP (T-6 th in MLB). Scherzer also had a league-leading 2.99 SIERA. While I don't think Scherzer will repeat the strikeouts, his peripherals look great with above average K rate and a BB/9 below 3 the last two years.

This might be wishful thinking, but going forward, everything is in place for a breakout year for Scherzer. He is right in his prime at 28 years old, the defense behind him is better than it was at the beginning of last year and he has great defense independent stats. What will hold him back is consistently. If he can minimize the bad starts and be more consistent, then the Tigers will have one of the best 1-2 punches in the rotation in all of baseball.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

IP W/L ERA WHIP K BB
Steamer
181
15-7
3.44
1.18
185
56
Oliver
195
13-9
3.55
1.26
200
61
ZiPS
186 2/3
13-10
3.95
1.27
196
58
Bill James
191
12-9
3.72
1.26
198
60
RotoChamp
200
13-9
3.60
1.30
221
64
CBS Sports
195
17-8
3.42
1.26
223
65
ESPN
197
16 W
3.79
1.20
207
59
MLB.com
192
17-6
3.66
1.23
224
61
FanGraphs' Fans (32)
199
16-9
3.48
1.18
220
58
Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

IP W/L ERA WHIP K BB
2012 Prediction
201
15-7
3.63
1.249
186
57
2012 Actual
187 2/3
16-7
3.74
1.274
231
60
2013 Prediction
196 1/3
17-7
3.39
1.228
206
59

Fantasy Impact: According to Mock Draft Central, Scherzer's average draft position is at 93, which puts him in the 8th round in a 12-team league. Personally, I'm targeting him in the 7th round. Obviously the strikeouts are the big prize with Scherzer, but if he can lower his ERA and WHIP, he's a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher, if he isn't already there.

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