2013 Preseason Prediction #10 – Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez ' numbers over the last 3 years:

	K	BB	HR	FIP	xFIP	ERA
2010	18.7%	8.3%	1.2%	3.32	4.04	3.55
2011	24.3%	7.7%	2.4%	3.35	3.25	3.67
2012 (Marlins)	21.8%	6.6%	2.4%	3.43	3.54	3.94
2012 (Tigers)	18.0%	4.8%	2.5%	3.68	3.71	3.74

The thing that jumps out the most is the lowering walk rate, which is a very good sign if he can keep it up. Sanchez has had low FIP totals, but he's done it differently every year. In 2010, he had a low HR rate with a high walk rate and a moderate strikeout rate. In 2011, he had a high strikeout rate as well as a high walk rate and a moderate HR rate. In 2012, he had a low walk rate, but moderate strikeout and HR rates. He's been good in all three rates, but he hasn't been good at all three in the same year. He's also been poor to moderate in all three rates - he's just avoided it in the same year.

According to Pitch f/x:

	Zone%	O-Swing%	O-Contact%
2010	53.4%	29.6%	65.3%
2011	51.3%	32.3%	61.7%
2012	52.2%	31.0%	61.6%

There is very little difference between 2011 (where he had a 7.7% walk rate) and 2012 (where he had a 5.9% walk rate). He's not throwing more in the strike zone; he's not making the hitters swing more out of the zone and having them make more contact out of the zone. Therefore, I have a hard time believing that Sanchez made a legitimate improvement here and his walk rate may be near 8% again in 2013.

Then there's the switch from the NL to the AL, where pitchers generally see a jump in ERA now that they have to face an extra hitter instead of a pitcher. Yes, Sanchez made 12 starts for the Tigers last year and was fairly good in those starts. However, it was a small sample and now scouting reports will be going around. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Sanchez is going to struggle at times this year.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	179	13-8	4.05	1.27	140	52
Oliver	198	13-9	3.50	1.26	164	55
ZiPS	185	11-9	4.23	1.32	143	50
Bill James	201	12-10	3.72	1.27	175	56
RotoChamp	200	12-8	3.65	1.29	179	57
CBS Sports	195	14-11	3.98	1.25	171	54
ESPN	201	12 W	3.63	1.23	178	57
MLB.com	196	15-10	3.72	1.28	169	51
FanGraphs' Fans (25)	198	14-9	3.71	1.25	169	53

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2012 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012 Actual	195 2/3	9-13	3.86	1.267	167	48
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67

Fantasy Impact: Sanchez doesn't do anything exceptionally well (doesn't have a high strikeout rate aside from 2011 and his WHIP and ERA don't sparkle) but he doesn't do anything exceptionally bad either. He'd be a good 4th starter on a 12-team league in around the 15th-16th round.