2013 Preseason Prediction #3 – Prince Fielder

When Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers last off-season, there were two assumptions that almost everyone was making. First was that Fielder's home run rate would drop (which it did) and second, that his rate stats of AVG/OBP/SLG would drop because of the switch in leagues and ballparks (which it didn't). In fact, Fielder hit .300 for the first time in his career after coming close in 2009 and 2011. There didn't appear to be that much of an adjustment period at all for Fielder. However, look at his splits:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR%	BB%	K%
1st Half	371	0.299	0.380	0.505	4.0%	10.5%	12.1%
2nd Half	319	0.331	0.448	0.558	4.7%	14.4%	12.2%

Aside from his strikeout rate, which was consistent, Fielder improved every one of his offensive stats in the 2^nd half. This would suggest that he's primed for a big season next year - or that this is just random variation. The HR and walk rate could carry over for a full season next year, but I have a hard time believing that he'll hit for a .331 AVG for a full season.

Digging deeper into his stats, there was a noticeable shift in what kind of hits Fielder got in 2012. According to Baseball-reference:

	GB AVG	FB AVG	LD AVG
2010	0.199	0.295	0.771
2011	0.221	0.311	0.787
2012	0.260	0.278	0.699

His groundball average increased about 40 points from the previous year and about 60 points from 2010. Fielder is not a fast base runner, so I expect this number to decrease in 2013. However, his line drive average decreased 88 points from 2011! Therefore, I expect his overall average to remain about the same as he'll make up the loss of hits from ground balls in line drives. And with the increased hits from line drives, I expect more extra base hits and thus a higher slugging percentage. The decrease average from fly balls can be explained by hitting less homers, so I expect that number to remain about the same.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	539	0.292	0.405	0.525	31	105	1	93	93
Oliver	542	0.293	0.398	0.517	30	100	1	84	94
ZiPS	559	0.284	0.400	0.499	30	98	1	93	103
Bill James	589	0.299	0.413	0.548	37	114	1	100	106
RotoChamp	550	0.316	0.428	0.545	31	110	1	92	92
CBS Sports	565	0.301	0.393	0.554	35	106	1	86	94
ESPN	576	0.313	0.423	0.556	35	116	1	100	99
MLB.com	570	0.298	0.393	0.533	33	110	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (54)	563	0.298	0.404	0.545	34	133	2	87	96

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	569	0.285	0.393	0.538	34	105	1	95	129
2012 Actual	581	0.313	0.412	0.528	30	108	1	85	84
2013 Prediction	562	0.301	0.413	0.543	34	100	1	98	88

Fantasy Impact: In my mock drafts, Fielder has been taken in the late first to second round along with Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. Pujols and healthy Votto are probably more valuable than Fielder, so I have him as the #3 first baseman.