Saturday, March 2, 2013

2013 Preseason Prediction #3 – Prince Fielder

When Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers last off-season, there were two assumptions that almost everyone was making. First was that Fielder's home run rate would drop (which it did) and second, that his rate stats of AVG/OBP/SLG would drop because of the switch in leagues and ballparks (which it didn't). In fact, Fielder hit .300 for the first time in his career after coming close in 2009 and 2011. There didn't appear to be that much of an adjustment period at all for Fielder. However, look at his splits:

AB AVG OBP SLG HR% BB% K%
1st Half
371
0.299
0.380
0.505
4.0%
10.5%
12.1%
2nd Half
319
0.331
0.448
0.558
4.7%
14.4%
12.2%

Aside from his strikeout rate, which was consistent, Fielder improved every one of his offensive stats in the 2nd half. This would suggest that he's primed for a big season next year - or that this is just random variation. The HR and walk rate could carry over for a full season next year, but I have a hard time believing that he'll hit for a .331 AVG for a full season.

Digging deeper into his stats, there was a noticeable shift in what kind of hits Fielder got in 2012. According to Baseball-reference:

GB AVG FB AVG LD AVG
0.199
0.295
0.771
0.221
0.311
0.787
0.260
0.278
0.699

His groundball average increased about 40 points from the previous year and about 60 points from 2010. Fielder is not a fast base runner, so I expect this number to decrease in 2013. However, his line drive average decreased 88 points from 2011! Therefore, I expect his overall average to remain about the same as he'll make up the loss of hits from ground balls in line drives. And with the increased hits from line drives, I expect more extra base hits and thus a higher slugging percentage. The decrease average from fly balls can be explained by hitting less homers, so I expect that number to remain about the same.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
Steamer
539
0.292
0.405
0.525
31
105
1
93
93
Oliver
542
0.293
0.398
0.517
30
100
1
84
94
ZiPS
559
0.284
0.400
0.499
30
98
1
93
103
Bill James
589
0.299
0.413
0.548
37
114
1
100
106
RotoChamp
550
0.316
0.428
0.545
31
110
1
92
92
CBS Sports
565
0.301
0.393
0.554
35
106
1
86
94
ESPN
576
0.313
0.423
0.556
35
116
1
100
99
MLB.com
570
0.298
0.393
0.533
33
110
1
-
-
FanGraphs' Fans (54)
563
0.298
0.404
0.545
34
133
2
87
96
Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

AB AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB BB K
2012 Prediction
569
0.285
0.393
0.538
34
105
1
95
129
2012 Actual
581
0.313
0.412
0.528
30
108
1
85
84










2013 Prediction
562
0.301
0.413
0.543
34
100
1
98
88

Fantasy Impact: In my mock drafts, Fielder has been taken in the late first to second round along with Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. Pujols and healthy Votto are probably more valuable than Fielder, so I have him as the #3 first baseman.

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